Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 1/5/21
Monday's slate was very annoying. Not only did Delon Wright barely play as one of my favorite values, Dante Exum also played just one minute after suffering an injury. That's just the craziness of NBA DFS and it happens to all of us at one point or another. We're ready to bounce-back here though, so, let's get into this Tuesday slate!
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With Kevin Durant expected to miss a week of action, Irving might be the favorite for Eastern Conference Player of the Week. We say that because Irving's usage should be monstrous in the absence of KD. That's certainly been the case this year, with Irving posting a 33 percent usage rate with him off the floor while averaging 1.73 DK points per minute. That's one of the best rates you'll see, equating to 60.6 DK points if Irving plays the 35 minutes we expect. That's really not that far off of his production with KD, averaging 45.4 fantasy points per game anyway.
Many people wrote off Conley after a disappointing debut season with the Jazz but he's returned to his All-Star form this year. In fact, Conley has at least 33 DraftKings points in four of six games this season, en route to a 36.3-point average. That means Conley's price is still about $500 below where it should be and it's clear that these sites haven't taken notice of his return to form. Getting to face Brooklyn isn't too bad of a matchup either, with the Nets sitting fifth in pace and 17th in points allowed.
Jamal Murray just went off against Minnesota on Sunday and we like him in the same matchup today.
While Portland's backcourt is astounding on the offensive side of the floor, they can definitely be exploited on the other end. That was certainly the case when Stephen Curry dropped 62 points on them Sunday and LaVine's role really isn't that far off of Curry's. The Chicago shooting guard has a 31 percent usage rate, averaging about 20 shots a game over his last five fixtures too. We love that with LaVine providing 39 points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals in his most recent outing, entering this matchup scorching hot.
Caris Levert FD - $6100 DK - $6600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 40.2 DK - 40.21
While Irving should see most of the usage for Brooklyn, LeVert's role expands exponentially as well. What's funny is that LeVert actually leads the team in usage with KD off the floor, posting a 36.4 percent usage rate. That has led to him scoring 1.4 DK points per minute with him off the floor and that would equate to 42 fantasy points if he plays a measly 30 minutes. That's big news with LeVert already averaging 31 fantasy points in his diminished bench role and it would be hard to imagine him not providing good value below $7,000 in such a good situation. Not to mention, Utah surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot should start for Durant and could be a nice punt play below $4,000.
Kyle Anderson FD - $6300 DK - $6300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.9 DK - 37.85
This sounds strange to say but Anderson is the best playmaker on this Memphis roster right now. Injuries have definitely played a major factor in that though, with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr both sidelined. That has led to Anderson generating a 28 percent usage rate with this current roster, the second-highest rate on the team. It's also allowed him to stuff the stat sheet at will too, averaging 18.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 0.8 blocks per game since the opener. That's a 35-point average and we obviously can't overlook that from a player sitting at just $6,300.
Otto Porter FD - $5300 DK - $6400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.27 DK - 33.37
Porter started off the season slowly but an injury to Lauri Markkanen has really opened things up for him. Not only has it forced him into the starting lineup, it's also made him a much bigger part of the offense. In the three games without Lauri, Porter is averaging 35.4 DraftKings points per game. That's an absurd total from someone priced so reasonably, especially with Porter owning a $5,300 price tag on FanDuel. We absolutely love the matchup against Portland too, with the Trail Blazers ranked 23rd in points allowed and 25th in defensive efficiency.
If you have the salary, LeBron James is a great pick against a bad Grizzlies defense.
Anthony Davis FD - $10000 DK - $9500
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 44.46 DK - 45.9
The power forward position is an absolute disaster on this slate and that makes Davis all the more valuable. People will be filling their lineups with punt plays at this position because the lack of options and it'd be wise to take the guaranteed 40 here with AD. We say that because he's scored at least 35 DK points in five-straight games while averaging 45 fantasy points per game in that span. A big reason why we believe he can duplicate that here is this matchup, with Memphis ranked 25th in total defense this season. He actually dropped 40 DK points on them in their most recent matchup on Sunday and that appears to be the floor considering he had just 17 points and nine rebounds in that game on 6-of-15 from the field. He'll inevitably shoot better here.
Paul Millsap FD - $4400 DK - $4700
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 22.57 DK - 24.29
Millsap has been one of my favorite players in the league for years now and we love him at this price. While his production has dropped off as his aging progresses, he's in a pretty good spot here. We say that because Michael Porter Jr is out right now, opening up minutes, rebounds and touches for Millsap. That's certainly been the case when you see that Millsap has at least 20 DK points in the last two games without MPJ which is really all you can ask for from a player south of $5K. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, with Minnesota ranked 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency.
Nicolas Batum is regularly playing 25-30 minutes a game and remains too cheap below $5K on both sites.
Rudy Gobert FD - $8200 DK - $7700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 44.72 DK - 44.92
Gobert is never a guy that you're going to get excited about using but he always produces. One of the big reasons why is his consistent double-doubles, averaging 14.5 points and 13.8 rebounds per game. He's done that damage despite never taking more than 10 shots in any game this season and it's scary to think how good he could be if he gets 15 shots inches from the bucket. A reason we believe he can do that here is the matchup, needing to play at least 35 minutes with Brooklyn throwing out DeAndre Jordan and Jarrett Allen. Despite those talented bigs, Brooklyn is surrendering the most offensive rebounds in the NBA which is fantastic news for a rim crasher like Rudy.
Wendell Carter Jr. FD - $4900 DK - $5700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.33 DK - 33.6
Carter is actually a poor man's Rudy Gobert, providing all of his value through points, rebounds and blocks. Much like Gobert, it gives WCJ a nice floor, scoring at least 23 DK points in five of his last six games. A 23-point floor doesn't sound like a whole lot but it's pretty good for a guy who's sitting around $5K on both sites, especially with Carter averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in that span. The reason we anticipate a double-double from him here is this matchup though, with Portland surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Nikola Jokic has triple-double averages and is obviously one of the best picks on the board.