Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 1/15/21
This has been one of the craziest NBA weeks I've ever seen. It would be one thing to have a blockbuster trade between three teams but that doesn't even take into consideration that we have postponements every night. For this slate, we have two games postponed already, with the Washington-Detroit and Golden State-Phoenix games both off the slate. There could be more coming and there could be more players that miss because of COVID protocols, so do your due diligence in checking all the news before submitting lineups.
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We at DFSR believe that this pricing is absolutely ridiculous. Trae was closer to $10,000 throughout most of last season and we're going to have heavy exposure to him if he remains below $9K on both sites. We're talking about a guy who averaged 48 DraftKings points per game last year and is sitting at a 43-point average this season. The main reason for the small drop off was a wrist injury early on but dropping 45 fantasy points across just 25 minutes in the most recent game shows that he's just fine. Having a few days off is a treat too and Utah's defense isn't as scary as it used to be.
Many people had White pegged as a breakout with the Bulls this season and they are looking right so far. This dude has been balling out in his sophomore season, averaging 17.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. Those are incredible averages from a kid and one has to believe he'll continue to improve as the season progresses. He's been doing that recently, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in four of his last five games en route to a 36-point average. We love all that against a 17th-ranked Thunder defense.
Eflrid Payton is still just $5,700 on FanDuel and that's way too cheap.
Picking shooting guards on this slate was tough but PG13 is an excellent option to get some solid production. After having a disappointing 2019 postseason, PG has come out with some serious fury in the early going here. In fact, he's averaging 46 fantasy points per game for the season, dropping at least 37 DK points in 10 of his 11 fixtures. That's the stud we remember from OKC and Indiana and it makes him worth a look as long as he remains below $10,000 on both sites. The best part about using him today is the matchup though, with the Kings surrendering the most points in the NBA.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker FD - $5500 DK - $4400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.17 DK - 33.3
With Lonzo Ball (knee) already ruled out and Eric Bledsoe (eye) questionable, NAW is one of the best plays on the board. Many people loved the way he looked in exhibition games but he was never really given a chance to show what he's got until Wednesday. He got the start for those guys and dropped a career-high 37 points on 15-of-23 from the field. That doesn't even take into consideration his other statistics, posting one of the best per-dollar outputs of the season. The simple fact is, he'll take 15-20 shots and play 35 minutes if those two remain out and that alone makes him impossible to fade in this $5,000 price range.
With Danilo Gallinari out, Cam Reddish is an option below $5K.
Malik Beasley FD - $6400 DK - $7100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 35.99 DK - 37.44
The Timberwolves are obviously terrible but they've had a nice find with Beasley. What's really telling about his role is that he's taken at least 13 shots in all but one game this season while playing 33 minutes a night. There aren't many players below $7,000 doing that and it's led to him averaging 35 DK points per game across his last six fixtures. What adds to his value here is the fact that Ricky Rubio and Juancho Hernangomez are both sitting. That leaves open more shots and ball-handling opportunities for the Beas Knees, making him a pristine pick against a Memphis team that owns a 26th OPRK against opposing SGs.
Cedi Osman FD - $5100 DK - $6200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.44 DK - 31.34
With Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Kevin Porter and Kevin Love all out, Osman has found himself as one of the primary playmakers for the Cavaliers. While he doesn't necessarily look like a hooper, this guy has game. Since taking on this expanded role seven games ago, Osman is averaging 12.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.1 steals per game. None of those averages really pop off the page but it equates to nearly 30 FanDuel points per night. That's a huge total from a $5,100 player and it's hard to understand why they're keeping his price so low. Facing a Knicks team that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency isn't worrisome either.
If Bledsoe and Ball are both out, Josh Hart could play 38 minutes again and would be a fantastic pick with his stat-stuffing abilities.
Brandon Clarke FD - $5600 DK - $6100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.42 DK - 32.96
This kid got off to a slow start this season but he's really hit his stride recently. One of the big reasons why is the fact that Jaren Jackson Jr and Ja Morant are both injured. That has forced Clarke into a bigger role and it's really allowed him to blossom as a player. Over his last five games played, Clarke is averaging 34 DraftKings points per game, playing at least 29 minutes in seven-straight. That playing time is one of the only things that has held him back and if he gets 30 minutes against this 27th-ranked T'Wolves defense, Clarke should have another 34 fantasy points.
JaVale McGee FD - $4500 DK - $4500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 31.75 DK - 30.6
I've never been a big fan of McGee's game because of his lack of basketball IQ (or any IQ) but sometimes guys are good values for DFS and you have to ride them because of that. This happens to be the case here, with Cleveland playing extremely shorthanded. What's nice about McGee is that he can produce in a small amount of playing time. That's evident when you see that he's averaging 22 DK points per game across 17 minutes a night for the year. That's an elite rate and it makes him a heck of a value at $4,500 on both sites with his minutes expected to be up a bit. If Andre Drummond sits, McGee is a lock for every lineup but he's still a decent punt play even if Drum suits up.
If Boston is still shorthanded, Daniel Theis is a great pick.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $6000 DK - $6300
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.77 DK - 28.78
We might have Robinson in this article every day until he gets closer to $7,000. The reason we say that is because he's a per-minute monster and it's just a matter of time before he's averaging closer to 30-40 DK points per game. We say that because Mitch Rob is playing a career-high in minutes, tallying 34 minutes a night over his last five games. While it hasn't led to bonkers numbers yet, this is a dude who's averaging about 1.3 DK points per minute for his career. If he does that and continues to play 30-35 minutes, we could be looking at a 40-point player sooner rather than later. We love this matchup with Cleveland too, with the Cavs being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.
Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $5000 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 22.98 DK - 21.98
Dallas has been demolished by the COVID craziness and it's hard to know what their roster is going to look like here. In any case, we anticipate WCS getting another start at center and receiving at least 20 minutes of play. If that's the case, we really like him at this price. We say that because he's averaging 24 DraftKings points per game across 23 minutes a night over his last five fixtures. That's really all you can hope for from someone this cheap and 31 DK points across 30 minutes on Wednesday shows what he can do if this team is shorthanded again. That means you need to keep an eye on Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith because if all these guys are out, WCS is a lock!
If Andre Drummond plays here, he's an excellent choice with so many Cavs out.
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