FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 2/4/21

Sometimes, we just need to be honest. This slate sucks. I say that because there's a ton of high-priced players and not a whole lot of great value plays. That means building lineups will be more difficult than ever because predicting which star will score 60 instead of 50 is one of the hardest tasks in this racket. In any case, all five games have single-digit spreads, so it should make for a fun night of basketball anyway.

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Point Guard

Ja Morant FD - $7400 DK - $7600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.63 DK - 41.91

Ja had a rough game on Tuesday, but what Grizzly didn't? Prior to that dud, Morant looked well on his way to a breakout season. If you take out the game where he got injured, Morant is still averaging 38 DraftKings points per game for the year. That even includes that ugly showing on Tuesday, and it's amazing just how jaw-dropping this kid can be. We love this matchup too, with Houston sitting sixth in total pace. Their defense has been amazing recently, but if we're playing at a pace like this, Morant should provide statistics at ease with his blazing speed and athleticism. In his three meetings with the Rockets last year, Ja averaged just shy of 40 fantasy points per game.

John Wall FD - $7500 DK - $6900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.85 DK - 38.38

Wall was actually supposed to be in this article yesterday, but we had to scratch him once he was ruled out for rest. All of the same things go here, making Wall one of the best plays on the board. We say that because the former Wizard has at least 35 DraftKings points in four-straight games. He actually did that damage in just 25.5 minutes a night, which is an absurd per-minute rate. You might be saying, "well, aren't you worried about those limited minutes?" No, because if you dig into those games, the Rockets won most of them in blowout fashion. He's actually played 30 minutes or more in over half of his games this season, and if he does that here, 40 DK points seem like a high possibility.

Eric Gordon has been good ever since the James Harden trade and remains too cheap.

Shooting Guard

Dillon Brooks FD - $5200 DK - $5900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.02 DK - 29.22

If these two SG recommendations don't tell you what this slate looks like, nothing will. That's not an indictment of this kid though, because Brooks has been a pleasant surprise this season. What's really added to his value recently are the injuries to Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen. That has left Brooks as the primary wing, playing nearly 30 minutes a night. He's actually coming off his best game of the season on Tuesday too, dropping 38 DK points in just 28 minutes of play. That's a ridiculous total from a sub-$6K player, and we love that he faces a Houston team that surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.

Rodney Hood FD - $4000 DK - $3700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.01 DK - 20.84

Woof. This position is obviously ugly, but Hood is probably one of the best punt plays on the board. We say that because Portland is currently without C.J. McCollum, Zach Collins, and Jusuf Nurkic. That's a ton of minutes and shots out of the lineup, opening things up for Hood. While the lefty has struggled this season, he's actually averaging 22 DK points per game across 29 minutes a night in his three starts this year. He played a season-high 35 minutes in the most recent start on Tuesday, and if we get a $4K player playing 35 minutes, he's hard to fade with so many studs clogging up salary.

Josh Richardson is a solid punt play with his recent resurgence.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $10700 DK - $10000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 54.7 DK - 58.41

We got in some great value plays in the shooting guard section, so let's talk about a stud. LeBron has been a fixture in DFS lineups for nearly 20 years now, and there really aren't many players dropping 50-spots as consistently as this guy. That's evident when you see that LBJ has over 33 DK points in every game this season, en route to a 49-point average. He's been even hotter recently, averaging 51.3 DK points per game across his last five fixtures. James absolutely killed the Nuggets last season too, dropping over 70 DK points twice against them, averaging nearly 60 fantasy points per game in their eight meetings.

Will Barton FD - $5200 DK - $5200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.43 DK - 29.67

Even though Barton cost me big cash on Monday, that certainly wasn't his fault. Denver had that game postponed late because of an inconclusive COVID test, but he remains a good value. We say that because Denver is expected to be without Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier. That should force Barton into 35 minutes of play and more ball-handling duties. He showed how effective he could be in that role in his most recent game, dropping 35 DK points across 37 minutes against an elite Utah defense. That means he should be closer to $6K, and we love his 31-point average against the Lakers last year too.

If Joel Embiid sits, Tobias Harris is one of the best plays on the board.

Power Forward

Christian Wood FD - $8900 DK - $8800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 45.66 DK - 47.09

This dude has been a monster this season. In his 15 games played, Wood has scored at least 30 DK points in all of them while averaging 43 fantasy points per game. His numbers have been even more absurd recently, scoring at least 42 DraftKings points in seven-straight, averaging 46 fantasy points per game in that span before Wednesday. That makes it hard to believe he remains below $9K, especially when you see that Wood had at least 33 DK points in his two games against Memphis last year. That was a Grizzlies team with Jonas Valnciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr, though, as Wood should be able to feast with both of those guys out.

Brandon Clarke FD - $6400 DK - $6000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.5 DK - 32.69

Isn't it nice when the previous player's write-up flows into the next one so well? The last sentence referenced Jackson and JV both being out, and that's why we love Clarke. Those guys being out of the lineup has opened up a ton of opportunities for Clarke, scoring at least 23 DK points in 12 of his last 14 games. The big man is actually averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in that same span, playing a career-high in minutes. B-Clarke also has a nice individual matchup, with the Rockets playing undersized at the four. That means Xavier Tillman and Gorgui Dieng will be locked in with Wood, but Clarke will have the much easier matchup down low.

If you have the salary, don't forget about Anthony Davis and Kristaps Porzingis. 

Center

Nikola Jokic FD - $11000 DK - $11000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 59.29 DK - 61.29

With just five games on this short slate, it's hard to fade Jokic. It's actually tough to fade this guy on a 10-game slate, and he's going to be a fixture in every optimal lineup. It's easy to see why when you see his averages, tallying 26.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game. That has him at a league-leading 60 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 43 DK points in every game this season. Yes, a 43-point floor! Most of the guys on this slate haven't even scored 43 fantasy points once this year. The center position is definitely one of the Laker's only weaknesses too.

Enes Kanter FD - $7000 DK - $7000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.76 DK - 32.45

This one is pretty easy. Kanter has been a per-minute stud throughout his career, and now that he's starting, it's impossible to fade him. The big man has recorded five-straight double-doubles coming into this matchup, and that's really no surprise when you see his 1.3 DK point-per-minute average for his career. He's played at least 32 minutes in four of those five fixtures, and as long as he does that, Kanter is going to keep dropping double-doubles at ease. While Joel Embiid is a tough matchup, Kanter is actually one of the only bigs on this roster who can man up with him. That should force him into even more minutes, which is obviously huge for a per-minute monster like this.

Joel Embiid is an elite pick, but we're unsure if he'll play in the second half of a B2B. We also like Gorgui Dieng with his increased role in Memphis.

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