Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 2/15/21
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With Durant ruled out for the next two games, it looks like we're going to be treated to the Kyrie/Harden show once again. The duo seemed to find their rhythm in KD's last absence, and that rhythm looked like Harden setting Kyrie up to go off. Irving shot 8/17 from the floor and shot 17 free throws as well, finishing with 58.8 FanDuel points. Tonight he'll draw the fast-paced Kings, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Kyrie will have huge ownership tonight to be sure.
I'm not really the "revenge game" guy, but it can't hurt a situation that's already this juicy. The Wizards are a categorically great match-up, playing the league's fastest pace with the 2nd worst defensive efficiency. They are a little stouter with Westbrook off the floor, but nothing to be worried about. Wall is already slightly cheap thanks to erratic minutes surrounding his various ailments, but with his full run he should be able to do some work here.
Westbrook has yet to play the second half of a back to back, but even if he plays, Beal is looking pretty good here. The Rockets have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, and Westbrook's likely absence means Beal will be shouldering most of the offensive burden once again. In the last game Westbrook missed, Beal went for 34/5/7 against the Bulls. Look for a similar performance here.
Eric Gordon FD - $6200 DK - $6400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.03 DK - 35.5
Gordon's DFS stock is rising thanks to slight improvements across the board. He's added extra minutes, and with those minutes he's taking more shots and making more of them as well. He's also pairing his trademark scoring with just a little bit extra on the side. We already detailed this dream match-up above - Gordon is a solid cash game staple here.
Also considered: Seth Curry.
Nicolas Batum FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 31.06 DK - 31.15
With PG out and Kawhi questionable after missing Sunday's game, Batum could be poised for huge ownership here. If you haven't been watching Batum's box scores you may have missed that he's been good for at least 5x points per dollar in each of his last four games with George sidelined. It's not a particularly great match-up with the Heat, it honestly doesn't matter if one or both of the big boys in LA sit tonight.
Doug McDermott FD - $4800 DK - $4900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.3 DK - 26.72
McDermott seems to have won the starting role from Lamb for the time being, and he's been making the most of it. He's coming off a game in which he scored 33 FanDuel points in 36 minutes against the Hawks, and if that's going to be anything resembling a standard rotation for him going forward we've got a steal on our hands. The Bulls rank 25th defensively this year in large part because of their inability to stay locked in on the wing, and McDermott should punish them there.
Also considered: Garrett Temple, if he's starting again.
Nerlens Noel FD - $4800 DK - $4400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.11 DK - 26.52
Noel grabbed the start for the injured Mitchell Robinson against the Rockets, and looked reinvigorated, supplying 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks, and a steal. He's always been a solid points per minute guy, and he's in a reasonable spot against a Hawks team that plays a slightly above average pace with a slightly below average defense. Vegas sees this as a one point game, so minutes should be in full supply here.
Power forward is tough, as usual, but we do have a few options available here. I consider Collins and Adebayo to be pretty similar value wise. Both have been pretty reliably paying these prices, and both are in games that should be pretty closely contested. Both have fairly bad match-ups (the Knicks and Clips allow the 29th and 30th most FPS to opposing PFs this year). When I'm not especially excited about a position, sometimes you just grab a guy who's a big part of his team's offense even at a higher price point. Still, it might be better to just go cheap here.
Also considered: Our system considers Patrick Williams a fine value in spite of his recent cold stretch.
Richaun Holmes FD - $6400 DK - $6000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.19 DK - 31.11
The Nets are just so damned bad that I'm almost surprised that this is the first King we're hitting in this article, but Holmes is a good one to start with. Foul trouble has plagued him recently, but Brooklyn really doesn't have anyone to push him into foul trouble down low. Holmes is a lock for 30+ fantasy points when he gets his full run, and the Nets have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. I love Holmes as a cash game play, even with the foul risk.
Kelly Olynyk FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.87 DK - 28.78
Nobody was ever excited about running Kelly Olynyk, but his recent game log paints a picture of a guy who is very steadily providing 5x points per dollar even in some tough match-ups (like against Rudy Gobert last game). It's not a great match-up, but this is a fundamental issue today. You can go for higher upside options with risk (like Demarcus Cousins), more expensive options that might be bad value like Embiid or Gobert, or go cheaper with less excitement.