Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 2/22/21
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CP3 is basically fairly priced at this point, averaging almost exactly 5x points per dollar on these prices for the season. He had been on a DFS tear before the Suns blew out the Grizzlies, and looks to regain that form against the Trail Blazers tonight. He's in a good position to do just that against Lillard and company, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. CP3 looks like a great option in all formats from where I'm sitting.
After weather has torn apart the Rockets' schedule, it looks like Houston will finally get back to work on Monday against the Bulls. Hopefully it hasn't killed John Wall's momentum, who appears to have nearly regained his prime form. Wall is coming off of 50 and 44 FanDuel pint performances against the Sixers and Wizards, and tonight he'll draw the Bulls, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. It's been announced that Cousins will be traded as well, so if he winds up sitting that only puts more onto Wall's plate here. On a night where point guard is surprising shallow Wall looks like a high floor option.
Also considered: There are a few similar options depending on your price point, with our system liking the value on guys like Diallo or even Lillard.
Scary Terry! By now you've seen highlights of his masterpiece against Golden State, and if you think the Jazz are going to slow him down, I've got a bridge to sell you. Rozier has put the ball in the air at least 17 times in each of his last four games, including launching 29 shots against the Spurs. Given how well it's working for him (he's shooting 60% (!) from the field during this time!), I think the fun continues tonight. Yes, it's a tough match-up, but the price is quite simply too low for a guy playing this well right now.
Eric Gordon FD - $5300 DK - $6300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.25 DK - 32.9
Luguentz Dort FD - $4400 DK - $5100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 25.7 DK - 26.39
Nobody is going to say, "Awesome! I get to play Lugentz Dort and Eric Gordon tonight!", but the fact remains that each are solid value options for their price tags tonight. The plays are remarkably similar, to me. Both are scoring-first shooting guards in reasonable match-ups and reliable rotations. They can hurt you with a bad shooting night, but that's sort of priced in here. If I had to pick I'd probably go with Dort because his cheaper price tag lets you have a little extra elsewhere, but I'd be fine with either.
Also considered: An admittedly high variance play in Desmond Bane if he happens to get the start again.
LeBron James FD - $10400 DK - $10400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 56.89 DK - 61.11
In case you're wondering why you might want to have a little money saved up tonight, look no further than the King himself. LeBron's MVP campaign soliders on, and while he hasn't been lighting up the DFS scoreboard recently, our model thinks he's a kettle ready to boil over. With Davis out his rebounding has ticked up by about 20%, and while his shooting hasn't increased much, it stands to reason that it will the longer Davis is sidelined. He's in an absolute dream spot against the Wizards, who pair their bottom 5 defense with the league's fastest pace. LeBron could be the highest-owned big money play tonight.
Dorian Finney-Smith FD - $4300 DK - $4800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 23.32 DK - 23.52
Another reason I'm forecasting high LeBron ownership tonight is the incredible lack of other good options at the position. But how bad can it be to run Dorian Finney-Smith? He's topped 23 FanDuel points in four straight games on very consistent 34-minute rotations, and he has a slightly above-average match-up with the Grizzlies here. I'm happy to grab him to escape a poor position cheaply.
Also considered: Jimmy Butler, but I'm not sure we can pay up twice at SF today.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8900 DK - $8800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.03 DK - 48.44
On a night where power forward is tough, Bam stands head and shoulders above the competition. He's been putting up a steady diet of around 5x points per dollar and gets a dream spot against OKC's underqualified front court. The Thunder have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing fours this season, and Bam's superior athleticism should be too much to handle here.
Patrick Williams FD - $4800 DK - $5100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.08 DK - 28.74
Royce O'Neale FD - $4600 DK - $4500
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 25.13 DK - 25.36
Williams and O'Neale are similarly priced, and honestly bring very similar things to the table. A quick trip down their game log will show some monstrous games when their inconsistent scoring is clicking or they pile up defensive stats. Both have sub 12 fantasy point performances on their recent resumes as well, even when they are getting their full run. With a gun to my head, O'Neale looks slightly more consistent, but this is a devil's bargain.
Rudy Gobert FD - $8100 DK - $7400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 44.06 DK - 43.7
Gobert is basically fairly priced on FanDuel given his 39.8 FanDuel points per game average, but the big news is that Utah's double-double machine will ply his trade against the Hornets tonight. Charlotte has just been awful against opposing bigs this season, ranking dead last against PF and allowing the 9th most fantasy points against opposing centers. This price is probably fair on FanDuel, but the DraftKings price is outrageously good.
Also considered: Al Horford.