Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 3/15/21

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Point Guard

Malcolm BrogdonMalcolm Brogdon FD - $6700 DK - $7400
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.6 DK - 42.98

I'm assuming that FanDuel's pricing alogrithm just broke down on this one, as Brogdon is priced at something like a 15% discount to his pe game season averages. This isn't a great match-up with the Nuggets thanks to their slow pace, but in spite of their personnel they've been basically a league average fantasy match-up this season. It will be tough for him to pop off for big tournament purposes, but in cash games he seems like a fantastic inclusion.

Jrue HolidayJrue Holiday FD - $5800 DK - $6500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 35.35 DK - 35.13

Now here's some value we can sink our teeth into. The Bucks were easing Holiday back into things until last game, when Jrue played 32 minutes against these same Wizards. Holiday poured in a balanced 38 FanDuel points in that one, and there's room to grow against the Wiz, who pair the league's fastest pace with its fourth-worst defensive efficiency. Holiday's price will climb after this one, so I'm happy to cash in while the getting is good.

Luka Doncic is a terrific cash game play if you find value elsewhere.

Shooting Guard

Caris LevertCaris Levert FD - $4100 DK - $7000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 38.45

LeVert played well in his first game back from kidney surgery, going for 13/7/2 in 26 minutes of play. He's not on a strict minute limit right now, so we could see his minutes and opportunity ramp up quickly. He's a steal on these prices on FanDuel (read: he could be 90%+ owned), though I wouldn't risk it on DraftKings.

Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins FD - $5600 DK - $5900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 33.35

Wiggins is another straightforward value play at these prices. He's been playing 35+ minute rotation in close games, and given that Vegas sees this as a 2.5 point game, he should get his full run here for sure. Wiggins has hit 25 fantasy points in every game where he's played 30+ minutes this season, and he should pay these values running away if he plays as long as we project him to.

Also considered: Rodney McGruder, if Wayne Ellington winds up sitting.

Small Forward

Mikal BridgesMikal Bridges FD - $5000 DK - $5300
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.26 DK - 28.2
Don't let the scattershot game log fool you - Bridges is as steady as can be when the game stays close. It's just that the Suns have been involved in a number of blowouts recently, which has driven his price down to these very affordable rates. With double-digit shot attempts in 3 of his last 4 games, his usage is ticking upward, and we think he's poised to have a very solid performance here. This is a sneaky great match-up as well. The Grizzlies have a top 10 defensive efficiency this season, but have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. I like Bridges in all formats tonight.

Gordon HaywardGordon Hayward FD - $7400 DK - $7300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.78 DK - 42.39
While it's tempting to ding Hayward after seeing the minutes in two of the three games he's played since returning, a closer look tells a different story. He played 38 minutes in the Hornets' only close game in that stretch, and has looked plenty healthy in his return. Tonight he's lined up for a dream spot against the Kings in a game with the highest total on the slate and just a 3.5 point spread. His season averages have him at about 5x points per dollar on these prices, and we have him penciled in for about 20% more than that tonight.

Also considered: Nic Batum, particularly if either of the big two sit on the second half of a back to back here.

Power Forward

Julius RandleJulius Randle FD - $9200 DK - $9800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 49 DK - 53.07

We have the opportunity to save at a number of position tonight, so it's time to start writing up some big boys. Let's start with Randle against the Nets. In close games he's playing 37-40 minutes, and has basically been a lock for 50+ fantasy points. And then there's the under-sized Brooklyn front-court, which has allowed the 8th most FanDuel points to opposing fours this season. I love Randle here, even if the Nets are 7.5 point favorites.

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11100 DK - $11100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 57.97 DK - 59.99

Giannis embarrassed the Wizards in their meeting last week, going off for a tidy 33/11/11 in the 36 minutes he spent on the floor. The Wizards simply have nothing resembling a defensive answer for him, to say nothing of a rim protector when he gets in deep. The only thing keeping Giannis away from unanimous ownership tonight is the 9.5 point spread, but given that the Wizards kept it close enough for him to get his full run last game, I am willing to risk it again tonight.

Also considered: Jerami Grant.


Richaun HolmesRichaun Holmes FD - $6700 DK - $6400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 35.88 DK - 34.67
I just love Holmes at the center position tonight. It's a great match-up with Cody Zeller, for starters, and Holmes has just flat out been worth these prices for quite some time. He's locked into 33-minute rotations, and has 30+ fantasy points in six straight games. In a close game with the highest total on the slate, Holmes should be worth it and then some.

If you trust his minutes from last game, hoo-boy, Alex Len could be a phenomenal play.





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