Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 3/26/21
If you love crazy DFS slates, this is the one for you. We had what felt like a million trades on Thursday, and it makes this the most uncertain slate of the season. We're not quite sure if these new acquisitions are ready to go yet, and you won't know until shortly before the slate commences. That means value will eventually open up, especially with Orlando trading away their entire roster. That's a team to look out for because there could be some great values on that roster in the coming weeks. The only issue is, we're not quite sure what that rotation will look like yet!
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The Rockets are beyond terrible, and it's sad because Wall has had a really nice bounceback season for them. Amazingly, the former All-Star has scored at least 33 DraftKings points in 19 of his last 21 games, averaging 40 fantasy points per game in those 19 outings. He's been even better recently, posting a 42-point average over his last six outings while playing 35 minutes a night. That minute total might be the most important thing because it means Wall is no longer hampered by the Achilles injury that knocked him out for a year. The matchup is fantastic, too, with Minnesota ranked 26th in defensive efficiency while owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing point guards.
Poole has quietly been an amazing player for the Warriors over the last month, and his role continues to expand with Stephen Curry sidelined. That has led to him scoring at least 24 DraftKings points in nine of his 10 games since returning, generating a 32-point average over his last five fixtures. The thing that's made him so valuable is his role, playing 33 minutes a night while attempting over 16 shots a game. Those are rare sites from a $6K player, and his role should continue to be monstrous as long as Chef Curry is cooking at home. The matchup with Atlanta is simply a bonus, with the Hawks ranked 21st in defensive efficiency.
Michael Carter-Williams might flirt with a triple-double with all of the Orlando players flying to new homes.
It's strange that Wiggins remains below $7K. We talked about how Poole's role has expanded, and that's obviously been the same case for Wiggins. For the most part, he's actually been running the show, leading the team with a 29 percent usage rate since Curry went down. It's led to some huge fantasy nights, too, averaging 40 fantasy points per game across his last four outings. That's obviously a stupendous total from a sub-$7K player, and we already discussed how good of a matchup Atlanta is. If Draymond Green is out again, that only adds to Wiggins intrigue with an uptick in rebounding and ball-handling duties.
Tyler Herro FD - $5200 DK - $5600
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.81 DK - 33.97
Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler both sat out Thursday's loss to Portland, and if that's the case again here, Herro is one of the best per-dollar plays on the board. The bubble breakout provided 29 points, four rebounds, and eight assists across 35 minutes in that defeat, showing just how special he can be. With those guys off the floor, Herro is one of the team leaders with a 27.4 percent usage rate, and that alone makes him hard to fade at such an affordable price. The best part is the matchup, with Charlotte surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Eric Bledsoe has been terrible, but it's weird to see him around $4,500 on both sites.
Gordon Hayward FD - $7000 DK - $8000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 42.02 DK - 42.59
Now that LaMelo Ball is out for the foreseeable future, Hayward should return to the fantasy stud we saw at the beginning of the season when LaMelo played a much smaller role. Hayward actually leads the starters with a 25 percent usage rate with him off the floor, providing more than 1.1 DK points per minute. That was crystal clear when Hay dropped 47 DraftKings points in the first game without Ball. While we don't anticipate that every night out, our projections prove that it's not far off. Miami sounds like a bad matchup on the surface, but Gordo dropped 35 DK points on them in their one meeting earlier this year.
Josh Richardson FD - $5200 DK - $5400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.81 DK - 25.4
I'm sick of this Josh Richardson disrespect. This guy has been a fantastic player in the past, and a bad stretch to start the season has lowered his price way too much. The former Philly forward is averaging 26.1 DK points per game across 32.4 minutes a night over his last 22 games played. That alone is sufficient at this price, but his numbers are even better recently. In fact, J-Rich has a 29-point average over his last seven outings, playing 34 minutes a night. We absolutely love that for a player barely cracking $5K, and it's not like Indiana's 21st-ranked defense is anything to be scared of.
Michael Porter Jr has been much better in the second half and remains a good value around $7K.
Jerami Grant FD - $7300 DK - $7800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.18 DK - 43.03
Picking power forwards was tough. I was looking at our spreadsheet for about five minutes before landing on these guys, but we're satisfied with Grant as the pay-up player at the position. We say that because he's had a breakout season and has been too good to be this cheap. We're talking about a dude who's averaging 38 DraftKings points per game for the season! We expect those numbers to go up, too, with Detroit missing Blake Griffin and Delon Wright now. That great production and bump in usage makes him even more enticing in a matchup like this, with the Nets ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed. That's been on full display in their first two meetings, with Grant averaging 39 fantasy points per game.
Nicolas Claxton FD - $4900 DK - $4500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.35 DK - 30.01
This is strictly a GPP play because of Claxton's volatile role, but he's got some crazy upside for such a cheap player. We say that because he's averaging over 20 DK points per game, despite playing just 18 minutes a night. That's a heck of a rate, and we love that his playing time is on the uptick too. He's now played at least 22 minutes in five-straight fixtures, scoring at least 27 DK points in three of those. If you get 27 fantasy points from a sub-$5K player, you're in a fantastic spot with the rest of your lineup. Facing a big Detroit team only adds to his intrigue, with the Pistons owning a 25th OPRK against opposing big men this year.
Maxi Kleber has regularly played 30-35 minutes a game and is in play around $4K on both sites.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8000 DK - $8200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.26 DK - 49.74
Can we marvel at the line Bam put up on Thursday? The big man provided 29 points, nine rebounds, seven assists, and five blocks on 13-of-16 from the field across just 31 minutes. More importantly, he was the focal point of the offense, with Butler and Dragic both out. That's evident in the season-long numbers, too, with Adebayo generating a 28 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor while averaging an absurd 1.4 DK points per minute. If he performs at that rate here and plays the 35 minutes we anticipate, that'd be a 49-point game. That's below what he finished with on Thursday, and it makes big Bam almost impossible to fade. The Hornets are terrible against big men, too, ranked 20th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
James Wiseman FD - $4200 DK - $5000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 24.99 DK - 24.82
Wiseman took a big crap on all of my lineups on Thursday, but we're going right back to the well for all the same reasons. He played 29 minutes in that game, marking his third-straight game playing at least 26 minutes. A guy who is this talented getting starts and playing 25-30 minutes is impossible to avoid, particularly when you see that he's averaging 1.1 DK points per minute for the season. The bump in playing time is eventually going to lead to a bump in production, and you need to buy in on this before he eventually creeps up near $6K. His size will be needed against Atlanta, too, and we love that with the Hawks owning the subpar defense we mentioned earlier on.
If you have the salary, Nikola Jokic is obviously a fantastic pick.