Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/10/21
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It’s pretty easy to make the case for one of, if not *the* best pitcher in baseball when it comes to cash games. That’s the story with deGrom who has been at the top of the mountain over the last few years when it comes to guys taking the mound. He’s been striking out more than 11 batters per nine over the last three seasons with xFIP firmly under 3.00. He rarely issues walks and has as much K upside as anyone in the game. The Mets are -260 home favorites against the Marlins on Saturday and deGrom is the clear cash play on both sites. The DraftKings price is especially palatable.
Paddack struggled in the first game of the season, allowing three earned runs in four innings and walking (3) as many as he struck out. One game does not a pitcher make though and he’s been very good through his first 200 or so major league innings. Paddack has struck out more than a batter per nine and kept solid control, allowing only two walks per nine in that stretch. He’s a -164 road favorite against the Rangers who are striking out 28% of the time to start the season. The team wOBA is solid, but the K’s are going to normalize quicker than that number and I don’t think this is that scary of an offense.
Ian Anderson (FD $8600 DK $8900) is going to be a tough fade here though the matchup is a little worse against the Phillies. That being said, this guy has massive K upside, striking out more than 11 batters per nine in his first 37 major league innings.
José Abreu FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5400
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - CHW
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.29
Abreu has raked the last couple of seasons and in 2020 put up a .987 OPS over 262 plate appearances. Some of that was a little run hot with the BABIP, but not much. He’s hit lefties really well in his career with a 149 wRC+ and .389 wOBA in that split. Facing Mike Minor on Saturday has him in a good spot and the price is fine even if it’s starting to get a little steep.
It’s not a sexy name by any stretch of the imagination, but Mountcastle did get the OPS up into the mid-.800s last season and was somewhat tough to strikeout. He’s started slow this season but gets a matchup against Garrett Richards who got just shelled the first time out this season. Mountcastle isn’t prohibitively expensive on either site and the position is a little thinner on this evening slate of games.
He might be back with the Rays this season, but it sure doesn’t look like 2017 Chris Archer is walking back in through that door. The guy has never really been the same after the trade to the Pirates and he’s struggled with his command over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, LeMahieu has been one of the best hitters in baseball since leaving Coors. He’s a little expensive on DraftKings but is simply too cheap on FanDuel.
Kike Hernández FD - 2B 2900 DK - 2B/OF 4100
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BAL
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.6
Zimmermann was okay against the Red Sox in their meeting a week ago, but I have no issue stacking Boston in this spot again. This is a pitcher who’s never been all that good at any level and doesn’t have a great deal of strikeout upside. Meanwhile, Hernandez has really hit lefties well over his career with an .817 OPS and 119 wRC+ in that split. He should be in the leadoff slot in this matchup and is a great play on both sites.
Trevor Rogers can dial up the K’s, but he can also dial up the walks as well. Over his first 32 innings pitched, the guy is walking almost five batters per nine. Meanwhile, Lindor is now a very rich man. And he’s also a very patient hitter. He’s walked 20% of the time to start this season and for his career has been very tough to strike out at only 14%. This is a good spot for him against the wild Rogers. I like the Mets overall and Lindor is simply coming too cheap at the top of the order against this arm. He’s an especially good DraftKings play.
Bogaerts has been solid to start the season and is working off back-to-back .900+ OPS seasons. He’s one of, if not the, best-hitting shortstops in the game right now and is especially good against lefties. For his career, he’s put up an .857 OPS and .368 wOBA in that split while walking 11% of the time. The Red Sox are looking like the premiere stack on the evening slate against Zimmermann.
Travis Shaw FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B 3900
Opponent - STL (Carlos Martínez) Park - STL
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.36
He’s been terrible for two seasons but might finally be turning it around. Shaw has come out of the gate hot to start the season and time will tell if he’s able to round back into the hitter we saw back in 2018. Because it’s been sometime now. The K’s are still an issue, but he’s gone yard once already. It’s worth noting that 3B is a real problem on the early slate of games with very little value standing out.
Machado had a down year when he first came over to the Padres in 2019 but made up for it last season with a .950 OPS thanks to a 10% walk rate and a paltry 14% K rate. He’s still firmly established as one of the best hitters in the game and you need to have elite K stuff to be of concern to this guy. Jordan Lyles isn’t one of those dudes. For his career, he’s struck out fewer than seven batters per nine. Over the last two seasons, he’s sported an xFIP over 5.00 and has been one of the weaker arms out there.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (FD $3300 DK $4800) could also put up a big line against Quintana here.
After crushing the minors, Robert hasn’t quite translated the hitting to the majors yet, but there are signs of life. He’s walking more than 11% of the time this season and has actually improved the K-rate just a little since last season. He does have solid power when he can get it going and the OPS should land somewhere over .800 when it’s all said and done. Roberts is coming a little too cheap on FanDuel hitting in the right side of his platoon split against the lefty Minor.
Mike Yastrzemski FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi González) Park - SF
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.79
Alex Dickerson FD - OF 2300 DK - OF 4000
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi González) Park - SF
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.4
These guys should be 1-2 in the lineup against the righty Chi Chi González on Saturday. The game isn’t in Coors, but no matter when you are facing an arm as weak as Gonzalez. The guy has put up an xFIP in the mid-5’s over the course of his career and walks almost as many batters as he strikes out in that span. He’s just one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and I don’t mind getting both of these guys on the cheap at the top of the Giants’ lineup.
Martinez is just one of those guys we can target against lefties because for his career he’s just completely obliterated these dudes. He’s raking to start the season and over his career has put up an eye-popping .979 OPS And .407 wOBA in the split. And that’s over more than 1,000 plate appearances. It’s just something he does at an elite level and why whenever a southpaw is on the mound we are considering putting him in cash lineups. Saturday is no different against a weaker arm in Zimmermann.
If Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (FD $2400 DK $3600) is in and around the middle of the lineup against the lefty Quintana then I really like this spot for him on the super cheap.
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- Jacob Degrom 653: AP Images