Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 4/13/21
The NBA season is absolutely crazy right now. What's absurd is how many things off the court are affecting things on it. That makes circumstances tough to predict on our end, but we're doing our best to put all these pieces together to complete this difficult puzzle. What it has done is open up a ton of value across the board, and that's on full display by some of these mind-boggling prices. One of them happens to be our first recommendation, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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What is DraftKings thinking here? Brogdon was an $8,000 player a month ago, and they're letting an injury-riddled stretch lower his price way too far. If you take out his final game before getting injured and his first game back, Brogdon has been crushing recently. In fact, he's got at least 36 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games without those injury-affected performances, averaging 40 DK points per game in that span. His most recent outing is a good indicator of how healthy he is right now, dropping a season-best 63 DraftKings points! That makes it hard to believe he's below $7K, making him one of the best values on the board.
With LeBron James and Anthony Davis both injured, Schroder has become the man for the Lakers. With those guys off the floor, Dennis the Menace is second on the team with a 26 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. That's on full display when you see that Schroder is averaging 34 fantasy points per game across his last 14 outings. That makes it hard to believe he's still a sub-$7K player, especially in a matchup like this. The Hornets currently own a 20th OPRK against opposing point guards this season and have lost most of their backcourt to injuries.
Terry Rozier has a monster role with so many injuries in Charlotte and should continue to run the show for them.
It's going to be hard for Mitchell to get any MVP votes, but his recent play is a good indication that he seriously wants some. The 24-year-old has at least 50 DraftKings points in four straight games, scoring at least 57 fantasy points in three of those. That's a truly absurd stretch, and it's hard to overlook the fact that he's averaging 31 shots a game in that span. Yes, 31! I consider myself a shooter, but 31 shots would make my shoulder hurt. The best part of this play might be the matchup though, with Oklahoma City owning a 28th OPRK against opposing SGs this year.
Paul George FD - $9000 DK - $8700
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 42.91 DK - 44.86
This has monster game written all over it for PG13. The biggest reason we think he'll go off is that Kawhi Leonard is expected to sit here. That means George will run the show, generating a ridiculous 35 percent usage rate with him off the floor while providing 1.3 DK points per minute. That's already a scary thought, but this dude is cruising right now. PG13 has at least 51 DK points in three-straight outings, doing that damage with Kawhi suiting up. The icing on the cake is a revenge game against the team who drafted him, with George dropping 63 DraftKings points on them in their one meeting last season. I hate to say anyone is a lock, but PG is as close as it gets.
Talen Horton-Tucker is way too cheap on DraftKings at $5,300 with those aforementioned studs out of the lineup.
Jimmy Butler FD - $9400 DK - $9300
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 46.33 DK - 45.54
Jimmy Buckets has been playing at a $10K level for the majority of the season, and we want to keep using him until he gets closer to that number. Since his return from injury two months ago, he's averaging 22.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. What's equally as impressive is his floor, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in 26 of those 32 games. That's flirting with a 5X floor at these price tags, which is hard to believe for a $9K player. The matchup against Phoenix is slightly worrisome, but he had 47 fantasy points in their one meeting last season.
Bojan Bogdanovic FD - $5200 DK - $5200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 21.27 DK - 22.87
Bojan has had his fair share of struggles recently, and it's earned him this dirt-cheap price tag. The thing is, he can be a $7K player when he's rolling. On Monday, he was doing just that, providing 43 DraftKings points in one of his best games of the season. That continues a bit of a resurgence for the Bosnian bomber, scoring at least 20 DK points in eight straight games while providing nearly 30 fantasy points per game in that span. That alone makes him an excellent option around $5K, and it's not like we expect this G-League roster that OKC is throwing out there to slow him down.
Don't forget about the other Bogdanovic, with Bogdan playing the best basketball of his career right now in ATL.
Darius Bazley FD - $5800 DK - $5500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 27.75
We just made fun of Oklahoma City for the roster they're sending out there, but Bazley might be their best option right now. They definitely thought that in his return to action on Sunday, collecting 17 points, nine rebounds, and five assists while committing nine turnovers. You might think those nine turnovers are bad, but we love it because he led the team in usage and looks like one of the focal points of the offense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford both out. It's not like he was bad before that, providing 26 DK points per game for the season. This is actually one of those cases where Bazley's price is only going to rise, and it would be wise to keep using him until he gets above $6,500 on both sites.
Jalen McDaniels FD - $6000 DK - $4300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.29 DK - 29.79
This is one of those circumstances where we love him on one site and not the other. It's pretty easy to tell which one it is by the pricing, with DraftKings completely missing the boat here. Charlotte is currently without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Malik Monk, forcing McDaniels into the biggest role of his career. In fact, he's played at least 29 minutes in three-straight games, averaging 34 fantasy points per game in that span. That equates to 8X value on DraftKings, which is truly one of the biggest rates you'll see. The Lakers might look scary on the surface, but this defense is a shell of itself with its superstars missing.
Jayson Tatum has been crushing recently and should have success against a terrible Trail Blazers defense.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8300 DK - $8400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 45.66 DK - 46.99
If you've been following me, you know that Big Bam is my favorite player in the NBA. This dude is a freak on both ends of the floor, and it's scary just how good he's gotten at the ripe age of 23-years-old. What's really impressive about him is his consistency, scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in every game he's finished this year. That has led to a 43-point average for the season, which is all you can ask for from a guy barely cracking $8K. Facing Phoenix is not an easy matchup, but Deandre Ayton is easily one of the weak spots in terms of defense, and it should allow Adebayo to feast. In their one meeting earlier this season, Bam tallied 16 points, eight rebounds, and six assists despite taking just nine shots.
Robert Williams III FD - $6000 DK - $6000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.28 DK - 31.92
Williams's nickname is The Time Lord, and he's earned every bit of that namesake with his crazy per-minute numbers. The big man is averaging 24.3 DK points per game this season, despite playing just 18.5 minutes a night. We love that with his minutes on the rise, playing 25 minutes a game over his last 11 outings. That directly correlates with his insertion into the starting lineup, and we truly believe he can be a $9K player in this role at some point in the next few years. The icing on the cake here is the matchup, with Portland owning the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Clint Capela is leading the NBA in rebounds and should gobble up boards against a weak Toronto frontcourt.