Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 4/27/21
We're finally getting down to the final few weeks of the NBA season, and it's been an amazing run. We've had some brilliant days, but this is where the good players separate themselves from the great ones. Following rotations and injury reports are more important than ever at this point of the season, and we truly believe that's where one of our major advantages lies. With that in mind, let's kick things off with the best shooter in NBA history!
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This might be a bold statement, but I truly believe that Curry is the most important player in the NBA. This dude changes the sport the way he spreads the court, and it's earned the Warriors a few championships. This is about this slate, though, and Curry is easily one of the best options on the board. Since returning from an injury on March 29, Chef Curry has at least 47 DraftKings points in 13 of his last 14 games. He's actually averaging over 55 DK points per game in that span, making it hard to believe that he's only hovering around $10K. Facing Dallas is a dandy matchup, too, with Curry collecting 57 points, two rebounds, and five assists the last time these two teams faced off.
The Pacers are one of the most beat-up teams in the NBA right now, and it's led to Brogdon's best stretch of his career. They're currently missing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, which has boosted Brogdon's usage, rebounding, and shot attempts. That's crystal clear when you see that MB has at least 38 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, averaging 48 DraftKings points per game in that stretch. That's why we have this projection where it is, and this matchup might be the best part of this play. Portland currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency ratings while allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing PGs. In their one meeting earlier this year, Brogdon had over 48 DK points.
Terry Rozier has been a beast for the shorthanded Hornets and it makes him hard to avoid.
This could be a great spot for Hardaway. We say that because the Mavs were missing Kristaps Porzingis and Josh Richardson on Monday and could be missing even more here. Luka Doncic and Dorian Finney-Smith had a questionable tag entering that matchup, and one or both of those guys could sit in a back-to-back set. Even if two of these four guys sit, THJ is a great option. We say that because his shots and minutes will be on the uptick, which is all we can ask for from a scorer like this. If you look at the 20 games THJ has played at least 30 minutes, he's generating a 31-point average on DraftKings. That shouldn't be hard to duplicate against a Warriors team that ranks second in pace and 21st in points allowed.
Armoni Brooks (FD $4100 DK $4300) Opponent - MIN
When I saw an A. Brooks on the Rockets last week, I was sure it was Aaron Brooks. This is not the former Oregon standout, though; this is Armoni from Houston University. While he's a relatively unknown player in basketball circles, he's been given a monster role by the Rockets. They were already shorthanded before Monday, but John Wall was ruled out for the rest of the season due to rest. That means Brooks should be getting even more minutes, with AB averaging 23 DK points per game across 36 minutes a night over his last three outings. That's a terrible rate but any player who's sitting around $4K and playing 35-40 minutes is hard to avoid, especially with a usage hog like Wall out of the lineup. The Minnesota matchup is majestic, too, and we'll discuss that in the next section.
D'Angelo Russell went nuts on Monday and remains too cheap with his upside.
Jaylen Brown FD - $8100 DK - $8400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 44.33 DK - 45.54
This is the easiest play of the day. Boston will be missing Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum here, leaving JB as the man running the show. Brown has a ridiculous 38 percent usage rate with those two guys off the floor while averaging 1.34 DK points per minute. Those are absurd rates, and it's really no surprise when you see that he's got a 41-point average for the season. He could legitimately be looking at a 30 percent usage rate, 35-40 minutes, and 20-30 shot attempts in a situation like this. That's awful news for a Thunder team that owns the worst losing streak in the NBA right now.
Kevin Porter Jr. FD - $5600 DK - $6500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.5 DK - 32.99
Porter has missed a few games recently due to COVID protocols, but this might be his show for the final three weeks of the season. We say that because Wall is out, and Porter was the primary ball-handler when Wall was out earlier. With him off the floor, KPJ ties the team lead with a 28 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. In the last 12 games that Wall has missed, Porter is averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game. That's a scary total from a guy sitting around $6K, and he will easily be $1,000 more on each site by the weekend. The T'Wolves matchup is tremendous, too, with Minnesota ranked 29th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.
Oshae Brissett has been playing monster minutes with Sabonis and Turner both out.
Christian Wood FD - $7700 DK - $8000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 43.1 DK - 45.05
It might be just a matter of time before Wood gets ruled out for the rest of the year next to Wall, but until then, C-Wood is going to be the focal point of this offense. With Wall off the floor, Wood leads the club with a 28 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. That's led to his 40-point average for the season, which is awesome when you see that he has at least 33 DK points in all but nine games this year. That looks even better when considering this terrible Timberwolves defense we just discussed, with Minnesota surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Khem Birch FD - $4900 DK - $4700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.42 DK - 24.28
This is just a guess, but the Raptors might be really shorthanded here. This is the second half of a back-to-back set, and Toronto has chosen to rest many of their starters in the circumstances recently. That means Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and Fred Van Vleet are all resting candidates, which is even better for Birch with Chris Boucher injured as well. If all of those guys are out, Birch will be one of the focal points of the offense and could play 35-40 minutes. That's great news with Birch starting the last seven games, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in each of those. That's plenty at this sub-$5K price, and he's a good play whether these guys suit up or not but an elite one if they don't.
If Dallas is shorthanded again, look for Maxi Kleber to play huge minutes at a cheap price.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9700 DK - $10000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 49.91 DK - 52.93
Towns is one of the best players in fantasy when he's right, and he's certainly feeling it right now. The big man has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in 19 of his last 21 games, averaging nearly 60 DK points per game across his last 16 outings. That's the stud we've been waiting to see, and it's clear that Minnesota wants to feed this beast when he's hungry like this. All of that makes it hard to believe that he's sitting around $10K on both sites, playing at an $11K level. The matchup against the Rockets is ravishing, too, with Houston surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers while sitting seventh in pace and 24th in total defense.
Brook Lopez FD - $5000 DK - $4800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.84 DK - 28.11
Why do these DFS sites continue to disrespect Bro-Lo? This guy has been playing at a $6K level for two months now, and he continues to sit around $5,000 on both sites. Since March 4, Lopez is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game in 27 minutes a night. That's why he should be $6K on both sites, and it's really mind-boggling what these sites are thinking. It's not like Charlotte is a scary matchup either, sitting 17th in total defense and dead-last in three-pointers allowed. That happens to be the big man's specialty, and we expect Lopez to drain 4-5 three's here.
Jusuf Nurkic has played at least 29 minutes in three-straight games and is playing well above his price tag in that span.
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- Stephen Curry: AP Images