Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/28/21
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
Happy Hump Day baseball fans. We have games scattered throughout the day but for this article, I will be looking at my top picks at each position for the 10-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let's get started.
Tyler Glasnow FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10300
Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - TB
FD - 37.73 DK - 20.91
Carlos Rodón FD - P 11000 DK - SP 9800
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - CHW
FD - 41.13 DK - 22.21
A very strong case can be made for both ace pitchers tonight and on DraftKings, there are enough value bats to pair them together which gets us just $100 over my SP budget.
Let's start with Glasnow who is coming off a rough start vs. the Jays giving up five earned runs but the good news is that he ended up striking out 10 pushing his K rate up to 39.7% for the season backed up by a 16% swinging-strike rate. The matchup is not ideal against the A's who are a Top 10 offense but getting an elite pitcher under $11K on either site always feels like a buy-low opportunity.
For Rodon, he followed up that amazing no-hitter with a three-hit performance against Cleveland and while he walked five he was able to get out of trouble striking out eight and giving up just one earned run. There is most definitely some regression coming as he has a very low .105 BABIP against but hard to argue the matchup tonight as he faces a Tigers team that ranks dead last against lefties with a .225 wOBA, 42 wRC+ and 34% K rate.
This is a very interesting play in that all the numbers tell us Ynoa has been good with a 3.68 ERA and even better 2.86 xFIP but got lit up by these Cubs just 10 days ago. I am not overall concerned for a couple of reasons starting with the price and the fact he has limited teams to just three earned runs over his other three starts. If you are not paying gup for both pitchers on DraftKings tonight, Ynoa is my top value SP2 option.
Freeman has been struggling a bit in the short term but after seeing his price hit the $6K range on DraftKings, this feels like a bit of a buy low on the reigning National League MVP. While the average sits at just .208 he has tallied an above-average .352 wOBA and 121 wRC+. Good spot to get back on track against Kyle Hendricks who has given up 21 hits and seven home runs through his first four starts and has struggled against lefties with a 2.82 WHIP and .572 wOBA against. Freeman is my top first baseman and one of my top overall plays on the entire slate.
Nate Lowe FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - LAA (Alex Cobb) Park - TEX
FD - 9.54 DK - 7.22
To say Nate Lowe is enjoying his time with his new team would be an understatement. He has been a force in the middle of the lineup leading the entire league with 21 RBI coming into Wednesday and while the K rate(27%) is still high, I feel we can most certainly live with it considering the power(6 HR) he provides. He also gets somewhat of a plus matchup here as Alex Cobb has given up an average of six hits per game and three or more earned runs in all three starts. The best part here is that Lowe's price continues to sit in that next tier leading to huge PTS/$ upside.
I mentioned with Dylan Carlson in yesterday's article that the price has yet to catch up to the opportunity and the same can be said for Tommy Edman who is multi-position eligible on both sites. He hits leadoff for the Cardinals and while the numbers don't jump off the page(.267/.327/.378 slash) he comes in with hits in five straight in 18 of his last 21 games. At worst, he is not a lineup killer, and when the Cards put it all together he has huge upside hitting in front of Goldy and Arenado. At these prices with multi-position eligibility, he is in play in all formats.
France came over to the Mariners in a trade with the Padres in 2020 and while it was the Padres making the deal for a playoff run, it was the M's who had been dreaming of ways to get France for years. The deal is paying off already as France is solidifying himself as a core piece of the lineup hitting second and comes into tonight with an elite .398 wOBA, 167 wRC+, and has already scored 17 runs. While Greinke isn't the best matchup on the board he does give up around a hit per inning and is running an xFIP(4.02) that is over a run higher than his ERA(2.76). At these prices, France is in play for me in all formats.
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD 4500 DK 5600
Opponent - ARI (Taylor Widener) Park - ARI
FD - 14.46 DK - 10.94
We most definitely have enough value where we can comfortably still pay up for pitching and get a couple of big bats in our lineups. Like yesterday, Tatis is right at the top of that list for me as he is one of the hottest hitters in the league with a seven-game hit streak that includes multi-hit efforts in three of his last four with five home runs. For tonight, the wind is blowing out and he faces a flyball pitcher which is a recipe for a huge game from one of the games best.
For value at the position, I will be going back to the Braves who get a plus matchup against Kyle Hendricks and Cubs. The price is down significantly as Swanson has struggled to a .214 average over his first 23 games but there is light at the end of the tunnel as he enters tonight after going 5 for 9 in the first two games of the series. While I don't fully trust this breakout the price is right to take a shot in all formats if you need the savings at the position.
Gio Urshela FD - 3B 2600 DK - 3B 3200
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - BAL
FD - 8.17 DK - 6.26
The Yankees top the charts once again when looking at implied runs and while almost all of them are great values on FanDuel, Urshela stands out on both sites. He hits in the bottom half of the lineup but gets plenty of opportunities and has been cashing in lately with hits in three straight including an RBI in each of those games(5 total). At these prices, it is hard not to grab this cheap exposure to the projected highest-scoring team on the slate.
While I don't love the matchup against Zack Greinke it is just too hard to ignore the prices of these Mariners bats. While the overall "safety" for cash games may not look great with his .258 average and .307 OBP, he has a lot of power and has already driven in 20 runs. Pairing him and France together is one of my favorite value, two-man stacks on this slate.
Former Cardinal's first-round pick Dylan Carlson is finally making an impact at the major league level. He started the year hitting down in the order but his steady performance has earned him a huge boost up the lineup card where he has spent each of the last four games hitting 2nd ahead of Goldy and Arenado. The best part here is that the sites have yet to adjust to his new role making him a top PTS/$ on the slate at any position.
He delivered once again going 2 for 4 with two runs scored and while the price went up on FanDuel, it actually dropped on DraftKings. That combined with a plus matchup, he is once again a top value play in all formats.
If we are to load up with one or both of Freeman and/or Tatis tonight, we are going to need a few punt value plays to make it work. Normally these plays come with added risk as they hit down in the lineup but the good news for Calhoun is that he has hit leadoff in three of his last five games and is projected there again tonight. That is great news considering he comes under $3K on both sites and comes in with hits in five straight and eight of nine games on the season. He is in play in all formats if back in the leadoff spot tonight.