Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 5/3/21
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Curry's late MVP campaign soldiers on, with Steph leading the Dubs to yet another win against the hapless Rockets on Saturday. The shot volume for Curry is through the roof right now, with Curry topping 13 three point attempts in 8 of his last 10 contests. The real icing on the cake? This incredible match-up. The Pels have allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and their defensive indifference could lead to another memorable performance from the greatest shooter the world has ever seen.
Damian Lillard FD - $8900 DK - $9200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 45.8 DK - 48.37,p>
It's looking like a day to pay up at point guard, with Lillard sliding into the number two spot in our point guard rankings tonight. This is the rare opportunity where an expensive option can be a value play, with Lillard being largely priced to a slightly limited post-injury role. Well, he broke out in a big way against Brooklyn (including that ridiculous logo shot), and if he's firing on all cylinders, he's probably 10% too cheap. A Trae Young-led backcourt defense isn't going to scare Dame either, and you can bet he'll be looking to knock this young'n down a peg.
Also considered: Ben Simmons, if you think the Bulls can keep it close.
Some people will take a "once bitten, twice shy" approach with Clarkson, but not me. No, he didn't live up to the DFS community's lofty expectations for him against Toronto with Conley and Mitchell out, but it very easily could have broken differently for him. He shot just 6 of 18 from the floor, and lost a handful of assists to poor shooting from his teammates. He's still too cheap, and we love running him against the Spurs here.
Andrew Wiggins FD - $7000 DK - $7100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.63 DK - 37
Shooting guard gets a little tough after Clarkson, but I think Wiggins presents a pretty reasonable floor of his own. The Warriors are giving it their all right now, and Wiggins is a crucial part of their game plan. He's playing 37-minute rotations in close games this season, and Vegas sees this game as playing right down to the wire with the Pelicans being favored by 1.5. In a game with the second-highest total on the slate, Wiggins should bring a 30 point floor with 40+ point upside.
Also considered: Josh Jackson is too cheap in a game where the Pistons are actually favored by 3.5. Likewise for PJ Dozier.
Ingles ran the point with Conley and Mitchell sidelined against Toronto, and rates to do the same against the Spurs tonight. He netted 9 assists against the Raptors, and while the scoring didn't connect as well as we pictured, our model projects an uptick here. This is just a price and opportunity mismatch if Ingles is in the same role at these paltry prices.
Rui Hachimura FD - $3900 DK - $4800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 23.57 DK - 23.9
He's more scoring dependent than you'd like for a player his size, but in recent games he's been supplying a floor of 5x points per dollar on these prices. With the Pacers tunnel-visioned on Beal and Westbrook, Hachimura could have 7x upside here.
It's the game with the highest total on the day, and Hachimura should be in line for a high 20s minute rotation.
Also considered: Norman Powell.
Moritz Wagner FD - $4900 DK - $4600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 31.88 DK - 31.49
This is a value play I can get pretty excited about. Wagner got the start with Okeke sidelined against Memphis, and dropped a surprising 36 FanDuel points in 34 minutes. While running the Magic is generally pretty scary, there shouldn't be a lot of blowout risk against the equally terrible Pistons. I love Wagner assuming he gets the start once again.
Zion Williamson FD - $9000 DK - $10000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 47.46 DK - 48.14
Sorry, who is supposed to cover Zion for the Warriors here? Zion is an impossible match-up in the best circumstances, and I just can't picture a world where he doesn't take advantage of this incredible athleticism mismatch. The Pels haven't been shy about running the offense through Zion in even more ways recently, with Williamson dishing 14 assists over his last two contests. The DK price is a little expensive, but he's ripe for the picking on FanDuel.
Also considered: John Collins.
Joel Embiid FD - $9600 DK - $10600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 58.26 DK - 60.03
I hesitate to run anyone in a mismatch like this, but it's worth at least raising your awareness of Embiid here. He didn't need to work too hard against the Spurs (who sat everyone) last night, and might not have to work very hard here, either. But as he careens towards his MVP campaign, I'd guess that he's a safer bet for production than some of his teammates. The Bulls are a great match-up for opposing centers in the best of times, and if Vuc sits here it only sweetens the deal. Embiid is simply too cheap on FanDuel, and I'm happy to run him in any format.
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $6700 DK - $7900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 39.06 DK - 40.82
If you're hesitant to pull the trigger on Embiid as a huge favorite, there's a lot of value lurking here in Jonas Valanciunas. The Grizzlies have played a number of bizarre game scripts recently, but we know that JV is playing 30 minutes in close games. Vegas has the Grizz favored by 3.5, so this game should be plenty close. Valanciunas has scored 40+ FanDuel points in each of the three close games the Grizzlies have played since he returned from injury. He could be the highest owned center on the slate.