Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/4/21
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Anytime deGOAT takes the mound the slate is centered around him as he is putting up absolutely insane numbers. He has gone at least six innings in all five starts while limiting opponents to three or fewer hits in four of five, has allowed just two earned runs all season, and has a 59:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Looking at the stats, the matchup is average as the Cards sit with a 92 wRC+ on the season but do produce runs 16% less against right-handed pitching which is just more confirmation deGrom is the top pitcher in all formats.
I have been on Ynoa through this whole price climb on DraftKings and I still feel he is a bit underpriced based on the underlying stats. He has gone five innings or more in four of his five starts and limited the opponent to four or fewer hits and two or fewer earned runs in all four. Not only has he been consistent, but he has also flashed a ton of upside with a 32% K rate backed up by a 14.6% swinging-strike rate. The Nats aren't a great matchup but it is a huge upgrade with no Soto and have one of the biggest split differentials in the league with a 136 wRC+ vs. lefties and a 76 wRC+ vs. righties. At these prices, he is in play in all formats on both sites.
The Padres are my top team to target on tonight's slate in a plus matchup vs. the struggling Mitch Keller. Over five starts, he has already given up 24 hits and 13 walks for a 1.98 WHIP and has been punished with 17 earned runs and a 50% hard contact rate(via statcast). For Hosmer, he has been consistent getting on base lately with hits in eight of his last 11 games with six walks but hasn't provided any power with a .000 ISO in that time. I am willing to somewhat dismiss that considering he hits cleanup behind Tatis and Machado in a great matchup and comes at a reasonable price on both sites. Fire him up in all formats.
The Royals lead all teams in implied runs facing a rookie pitcher making his first career start and through three relief appearances(5.2 IP), has given up eight hits and three long balls. For Santana, it has been a great bounce-back after hitting under .200 during the shortened Covid season in 2020. He comes into tonight with hits in eight straight and 13 of his last 15 games giving him a .384 wOBA and 151 wRC+ on the season. He is getting pricey but proving time and again it is fully warranted.
The risk in rostering the Braves tonight is two-fold and starts with what Joe Ross they are going to face. In any given start he can look like an All-Star or bp pitcher and the good news is that he has given up 11 earned runs and five long balls over his last two starts. The second risk is that the Braves come in losers of four straight but more good news as they have scored just over 5.4 runs per game over the last week and Albies enters this one with at least one hit in all seven of those games with an added seven extra-base hits. He is my top overall play at second base tonight.
While Albies is my top overall play at the position, Arraez tops the PTS/$ rankings at the position with his combination of consistency and value price. He can be a bit streaky at times and lacks upside with a .081 ISO but has been extremely consistent hitting .291 and getting on base at a .398 clip so far this season. Even better is the opportunity he is getting as the Twins leadoff hitter and faces a pitcher in Kyle Gibson who can have issues with control(11 walks already) which adds a bit of value to Arraez tonight. At his price, he is my top play at the position for cash games.
David Fletcher FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 3700
Opponent - TB (Shane McClanahan) Park - LAA
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.23
I get it, Fletcher is about as boring of a fantasy play as they come but the middle infield positions are great to grab some value and Fletcher comes at a very affordable price on both sites. It's not just about price either as he hits leadoff in front of one of the deadliest combos in baseball in Trout/Rendon and went into Monday's game with hits in seven straight and 16 of his last 17 games. While the upside is limited, I love Fletcher in cash games, allowing us to spend up for pitching and some other top bats.
To get deGrom in our lineups, especially on FanDuel, we are going to need to get find multiple value plays and I like I mention a ton middle infield is a great source. One I have my eye on is Amed Rosario who has been better as of late with hits in three of his last four games and has been getting some swings near the top of the lineup. He is also a player I only target against lefties as he has tallied a .307 average, .357 wOBA, and 126 wRC+ in the split since the start of the 2019 season. If he is back in the two-hole tonight, he is right up there as a top PTS/$ value play in all formats.
This is a spot where I just love targeting bad pitching and Jorge Lopez falls into that category having given up 22 hits and 18 earned runs over his first five starts(21.2 IP). While Seattle is not considered a top offense(17th in runs scored) they are full of PTS/$ value and it starts with Kyle Seager at third base. The average(.252) and OBP(.306) are not pretty but what he lacks in consistency, he makes for with power with four home runs and 20 RBI. At these prices, that and the matchup are more than enough for me to consider him a top PTS/$ play on this slate.
Also Consider: With so much saving at other positions, Jose Ramirez(CLE) is an option at his massive price tag and it is warranted as he has been red-hot with hits in 14 of his last 16 games with six home runs.
I talked about the Padres in the opening of the bats section and will be trying to get as much exposure as possible on tonight's slate. In the outfield, while expensive, Trent Grisham is in a great spot as the leadoff hitter and comes in red-hot with hits in six straight and nine of his last 10 games including six multi-hit efforts. For value, I will be watching for the lineup card as Tommy Pham would become my favorite punt play if back in on Tuesday as he entered Monday's game with hits in eight of his last 10 games and has been getting opportunities in the middle of lineup. Stay tuned for starting lineups later in the day.
The Orioles offense ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every category but that is no fault of their leadoff hitter. In his third major league and first full season as a starter, Mullins has been terrific with a .382 wOBA, 153 wRC+, and provides value with both his speed and power. The matchup is also a plus one as Justin Dunn sits with an xFIP(6.35) that is over two runs higher than his ERA(3.98) and he has given up an xwOBA(.373) over 80 points higher than his wOBA(.292). At these prices, I am on Mullins as a top PTS/$ as a one-off in cash games or as a part of a lower owned Orioles stack.
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- Jacob Degrom 653: AP Images