Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/7/21
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We get a nice selection of top pitchers tonight but Flaherty stands out and it starts with the price as he is 4th in pricing on DraftKings in the mid $9K range. He and the Cards are also the biggest favorites(-196) on the slate facing a Rockies team that ranks 25th in wRC+(74) on the road and come in with a terrible 80 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. For Flaherty, it has been a tremendous rebound after a rough opening day(6 ER) and has only given up seven earned runs over his last five starts(2.10 ERA/3.57 xFIP) with a 27% K rate. All things considered, Flaherty is my top pitcher in all formats.
There are a ton of different ways to go at SP2 tonight including double pay-up, a mid-tier option, or my favorite, a trip to value town. The system likes Charlie Morton a ton here and it makes sense if the Phillies are without Harper to open the series. Sure, Folty has some ticks against him as well but comes $900 cheaper and has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. He also faces a Mariners team that has struggled lately(64 wRC+ last 7 days) and rank bottom five in almost all offensive stats for the season. There is not a ton of upside here but at these prices, I live the PTS/$ floor he provides allowing us to spend up for 2-3 big bats.
Targeting against Tarik Skubal early the season has most definitely paid off this season so why stop why? He enters the night with a 6.14 ERA, 6.83 xFIP, and has twice given up three home runs in a game. What really stands out, however, is the damage righties have been doing to the tune of an 8.27 xFIP and .446 wOBA against. That is where this pick of Garver at catcher leads off the bats in this slate. He is projected to hit leadoff and has tallied a .437 wOBA, 180 wRC+, and .372 vs. lefties since the start of the 2019 season. I will have exposure in all formats on both sites.
Not that Austin Gomber has been terrible outside of one start(9 ER vs. SFG) but he is still figuring out the control(16% walk rate) which affords opponents a ton of opportunities. This is why I am all over the Cardinals and add the fact they have been WAY better vs. left-handed pitching. For Goldy, he has gotten off to a slow start(.240 average) but the good news is that he is running a BABIP(.301) almost 50 points lower than his career average and 60 points lower than last season. He crushes lefties and while the price is up in the $5K range on DraftKings, he is one of our top PTS/$ plays on FanDuel at just $3K tonight.
To afford a double pay-up at pitcher and/or multiple big bats we are going to need some value and my favorite on the slate is Nick Madrigal. What he makes up for in the power department he more than makes up for with consistency leading the majors with an insane 4.1% K rate since the start of last season. More than anything he is getting his hacks in the two-hole at the moment and faces Brad Keller who has a 2.56 WHIP and has given up a .478 wOBA to righties.
The position is a tough one so I will gladly use Tommy Edman's second base eligibility, especially at these prices. it also helps he has been incredibly consistent and enters the night with hits in four straight and six of his last seven games and already has 10 multi-hit efforts on the season. To top it off, he hits leadoff in a plus matchup vs. a lefty and has tallied a .399 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in the split since entering the league in 2019. Fire up Edman in all formats.
I honestly can't stop playing Bogaerts and it makes sense as he contributes offensively in some facet every single game. He comes into this one getting on base in 15 of his last 16 games including six multi-hit efforts and six long balls. For the season, he is hitting .356 with an insane .425 wOBA and 176 wRC+ and has been the best shortstop in the game from a fantasy perspective but is somehow still only the 5th most expensive at the position on DraftKings. He is easily one of the top payups on the entire slate.
If you are spending up elsewhere and fading all the top shortstops there is some value at the position and it starts with Miguel Rojas. After a tremendous, shortened 2020 season and hot start to this season, Rojas is now taking regular hacks at the top of the Marlins lineup and the sites have been slow to catch up. He has been great against lefties(.422 wOBA) and comes in hot with a multi-hit game in three straight He will be lower owned and is in pay for me as a one-off or part of a lower owned Marlins stack.
Back to the Cardinals' love here as they are jam-packed with bats that absolutely crush lefty pitching and Arenado is right at the top of that list with a .391 wOBA, 131 wRC+, and .260 ISO in the split since the start of 2019. He is now on a new journey with a new team and has been extremely consistent with hits in 25 of 32 games and has already driven in 22 runs and hasn't really taken off yet. Combine the matchup and splits with the fact he is the 10th and 7th most expensive at the position on DraftKing and FanDuel and you have a top play in all formats.
The Marlins are full of value tonight and Brian Anderson may be my favorite on the entire slate. He was really coming on with hits in three straight before hitting the DL in late April and appears to be back after homering in his first at-bat back in the lineup. He comes into tonight with a hit in each of his three games since his return and is back up in the five-hole with a ton of opportunity to drive in runs. At these prices, he can be used a one-off value to fit top pitching and bats or like I mentioned with Rojas, as a part of a lower owned Marlins stack in GPP formats.
One of our members in chat said it best last night "imagine not playing Stanton right now" referring to his low ownership. Low and behold, he did it again extending his streak to 12 games with his 9th home run of the season. He is almost breaking advanced metrics as he went into Thursday with 17 hard-hit balls of 115 mph or more with no other TEAM having more than five! Think about that for a minute. He leads the league with an insane average exit velo of 99.1 mph and 67% hard contact rate(via statcast).
He now faces Patrick Corbin who is having a nightmare start to the season with a 1.76 WHIP and 13% walk rate and has been punished by righties who have tallied a .462 wOBA and .681 SLG on the season. The price went up on DraftKings but the hottest player on the planet is still the 10th most expensive outfielder and 11th most expensive on FanDuel. Long winder but fire him up in all formats.
I wrote him up on Wednesday but he got scratched due to lower back tightness but it turned out to be just a one-game absence. He returned to the Red Sox lineup last night and looked good picking up his third straight multi-hit game pushing his average up to .315 on the season with an elite .378 wOBA and 144 wRC+. He hits in the two-hole, gets a plus matchup, has been extremely consistent, and is underpriced on both sites making him a great play in all formats.
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- Giancarlo Stanton: (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)