Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/25/21
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It is a terrific slate for pitching but I am iffy on paying up for deGrom who returns from the IL so instead I will turn to Mad Max as my top option. He has been elite in the month of May giving up just four total earned runs(1.37 ERA/2.45 xFIP) with an eye-popping 39% K rate. He gets a great shot to keep the good times rolling as a -165 home favorite against the struggling Reds who have dropped six of their last seven scoring just 3.6 runs per game and striking out 25% of the time. Fire up Scherzer in all formats.
Look. I get the Astros are a Top 3 team against left-handed pitching and in no way is Kershaw a safe play on FanDuel but this DraftKings price is straight up laughable. There have been a few hiccups along the way but overall, he is having a good start to the season with a 3.18 ERA/3.15 xFIP to go along with a 29% K rate. At a minimum, we are looking for a 2x return in cash games(16 pts) on DraftKings and he has provided 20+ DK points in eight of his 10 starts. I hate the matchup but cannot ignore the price making Kershaw easily my top SP2 tonight.
As of writing this, Oakland is outside the Top 5 in implied runs but easily one of my favorite teams to target in all formats. It starts with the matchup against struggling rookie Logan Gilbert who has given up nine hits and seven earned runs through his first two starts(6.2 IP). For Olson, he checks off almost all boxes starting with recent play as he comes in red-hot with hits in seven of his last eight games including two doubles and four home runs. To be honest, he has played great all season with a .388 wOBA/156 wRC+, and best of all he comes at a buy-low price as the 11th and 8th most expensive player at the position on DK/FD.
Miguel Sanó FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4300
Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - MIN
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.11
If you are familiar with our projection system and/or chatroom, you know just how much our algo seems to have a crush on Miguel Sano. Maybe it was just foreshadowing but I am getting there finally as he has really heated up with hits in eight of his last 10 games with three doubles and six home runs. Combine that with an elite matchup vs. Dean Kremer who has given up eight home runs in his last five starts and you have a top PTS/$ play at the position and overall.
The Twins are currently lead all teams in implied runs on this slate and a great place to start your exposure is right at the top with the leadoff hitter. The upside is somewhat limited as he has only tallied five extra-base hits all season but comes cheap on both sites and faces a pitcher in Kremer who has given up a .409 wOBA and .589 SLG to left-handed batters. I will have exposure in all formats tonight.
I prefer taking the value at the position tonight but if looking for some lower ownership and tons of upside look no further than Brandon Lowe. It has been a rough start to the year for Lowe who is hitting just .209 but is having a much better month of May with a .353 wOBA and 131 wRC+. That is great news as he hits near the top of the lineup and the Rays are in a great spot against Brad Keller and his 1.84 WHIP which has led to an ugly 6.52 ERA/4.51 xFIP. I will be going elsewhere for cash games but love the Rays and Lowe as a GPP stack tonight.
I am usually more excited about paying up at the shortstop position but almost all of the pay-ups are in below-average to bad matchups. Of that group, Semien/Bichette stand out the most as the Jays offense leads the league with 148 runs, a .344 wOBA, and a 119 wRC+ over the past month. Leading the way for me is Semien who has been one of the best free-agent additions, especially considering the injury to George Springer. Semien has hit leadoff almost the entire year and comes into tonight with a .377 wOBA, 141 wRC+, and has tallied 30+ RBI and runs scored. The matchup isn't great but Kluber has given up 5+ hits in six of his nine starts and has an xFIP that is a run and a half higher than his ERA. I will likely pay down in cash games but Semien is in play if you decide to pay up.
Amed Rosario FD 2400 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.49
For value at shortstop, I will be turning to Amed Rosario who is projected to hit second in the lineup tonight going up against a lefty. That lefty is rookie Tarik Skubal who has struggled to a 5.45 ERA/5.54 xFIP through seven starts and has already given up 12 long balls. For Rosario, he has not only been good vs. southpaws(.376 wOBA, 140 wRC+) but he comes in hot with hits in three straight and seven of his last eight games. At these prices, he is in play in all formats for me tonight.
The Rays are a Top 5 team in implied in a great matchup against struggling Brad Keller and the best part is the value they provide throughout the lineup. Joey Wendle is one of them and while he has bounced around the lineup, he has been very productive(.389 wOBA/156 wRC+) and has 3+ hits in four of his last seven games. Keller has reverse splits and is much worse against righties but I have the Rays putting up a bunch of runs tonight and the price on Wendle and his combination of consistency and upside cannot be ignored.
Another player we just can't ignore anymore is Austin Riley. He often gets overlooked due to the fact he hits 5th/6th in the Braves order and has been a high strikeout kind of guy but is currently carrying the offense on his back. He comes into tonight with an eight-game hit streak including three straight multi-hit efforts in which he has hit four home runs. he is also a reverse split guy and has been much more productive vs. righties and at these prices, he is most definitely in play in all formats.
I mentioned the A's and their great matchup in the opening of the hitter section and we will circle back here in the outfield. Much like Olson, he is coming way too cheap considering he has been red-hot with a .419 wOBA/176 wRC+ in the month of May and hits leadoff for a Top 10 offense. For Seth Brown, it depends where you play him as he is an outfielder on DraftKings but first base on FanDuel. Either way, he is cheap, hits 2nd against righties often, and has also been hot with home runs in three straight games. If back in the two-hole tonight, he is easily a top PTS/$ in the system.
After a brutal opening month of April to start the season, there is finally a ray of light for Meadows. The average is still not where he wants it(.228 in May) but he has been extremely productive for the red-hot Rays and has a .352 wOBA, 131 wRC+ in the month to go along with five home runs and 20 RBI. The Rays are a top offensive target tonight and Meadows is still reasonably priced making him a great play in all formats.