Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/26/21
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At the top tonight, we are faced with the decision between two elite pitchers and while I will have exposure to both, the system has Glasgow slightly ahead and I agree for multiple reasons. First of all, the Rays are much bigger favorites(-193 to -136) facing a Royals team that is below average and ranks outside the Top 20 in almost all offensive stats both on the season and more recently. The only thing I have against Bauer here is that the Astros strikeout(18%) less than any team in baseball which both lowers his floor and ceiling. Glasnow is coming off a dud vs. the Blue Jays who have had his number but overall he has been very good with a 2.90 ERA/2.87 xFIP to go along with an elite 36% K rate. All in all, he is my top pitcher on this slate.
Night in and night out we keep getting pitchers on DraftKings that seem to be underpriced making it very easy to pay up for the elite arms. Tonight, DK is serving up Chris Paddack and to be fair he was inconsistent early on but is starting to heat up making this a nice buy-low opportunity. His last start was easily his best of the season as he went six innings(longest outing) holding the Mariners to just three hits and one earned run while striking out six. He now gets a plus matchup against a below-average Brewers offense that has been much worse against righties with a .285 wOBA, 78 wRC+, and 26% K rate. Paddack is my top SP2 tonight on DraftKings and a nice GPP pivot on FanDuel to get all the bats.
Max Muncy FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B/2B 5500
Opponent - HOU (Luis Garcia) Park - HOU
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.27
Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 5600
Opponent - BOS (Nick Pivetta) Park - BOS
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.24
First base is most definitely a pay-up spot for me tonight and I likely won't expand outside of these two superstars. Let's start with Muncy who has put a terrible end to April(4 for 65) behind him and is absolutely crushing in May hitting .381 with eight multi-hit efforts. He has not only been consistent but provided huge upside as well with seven home runs and an insane .523 wOBA/237 wRC+. He also gets a plus matchup vs. Luis Garcia who has given up nine extra-base hits and a .516 SLG to lefties.
We then have to talk about my top game stack of the night as the Red Sox/Braves game has the highest total with two struggling pitchers going head to head. For the Braves, my exposure starts with the reigning National League MVP who is also starting to heat up with hits in 13 of his last 16 games including six multi-hit efforts and five home runs. He should get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs considering he faces Nick Pivetta who has walked multiple batters in all but one starts this season.
As of now, I am leaning Muncy as my top option but it is razor-thin and will come down to weather and how each team's lineup looks closer to lock. Stay tuned!
Kike Hernández FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/OF 4200
Opponent - ATL (Drew Smyly) Park - BOS
FD - 12.9 DK - 9.73
I mentioned above that I am fully on board with a game stack here as this game has the highest total of the night. I will start with Kike Hernandez who has looked great since returning from the IL coming into the night with hits in six of seven games with three multi-hit efforts and six runs scored. He hits leadoff for the Red Sox who get a plus matchup against Drew Smyly and his 5.11 ERA/4.95 xFIP while giving up multiple home runs four of his seven starts. From a PTS/$ perspective, Hernandez is in play in all formats.
To pay up for one of the elite pitchers on FanDuel tonight we are going to need a few low to mid $2K range players and Profar is one I have my eye on tonight. Due to injuries, he has been getting opportunities to hit near the top of the lineup and hasn't disappointed with hits in four of five games including three multi-hit efforts. The matchup doesn't jump off the page right away but the Padres might be catching Houser at the right time as he has walked nine and given up eight earned runs over his last two starts. If back in the leadoff or two-hole tonight, Profar is my top PTS/$ play at the position on FanDuel.
While you can pay up for Bogaerts(who I mention a ton), Tatis, or Turner, they have elite price tags which don't exactly fit the cash game model if also paying up for pitching. This has me looking for value. Enter Brandon Crawford who has been one of the hottest hitters in the league in May with a .471 wOBA, 204 wRC+(that is 104% higher than league average!!), and seven home runs. The sample is almost a full month long so it is a bit surprising to see the sites react so slowly but it does create a buy-low opportunity and more good news as Crawford and the Giants get a great matchup vs. Merrill Kelly. Lock and load in all formats.
Swanson is another player who has really come on lately after a fairly ugly start to the season. He enters the night with hits in six straight including three multi-hit efforts, four doubles, and three home runs. I talked about the Braves/Red Sox as my top game stack tonight and I want as much exposure as possible and Swanson is high on the list in all formats with his current form and value price.
Let's keep the Red Sox/Braves theme going here at third base with yet another value play in this game. In his third season in the big leagues, he is breaking out in a big way coming into tonight with a .312/.405/.535 slash line and pitch selection has been a huge part of that as he has seen a 3% jump in walk rate. He has been even better over the short term with hits in eight of his last nine including five multi-hit efforts, six home runs(two multi-HR games), and 11 RBI. All things considered, the price is just too low and I have Riley in my player pool in all formats.
Also Consider: Rafael Devers(BOS) as a GPP stacking piece as he is in a lefty/lefty matchup or you can pay right up for Jose Ramirez(CLE) who has been elite vs. right-handed pitching with a .397 wOBA/154 wRC+
The Nats sit Top 5 in implied runs tonight but likely won't be targeted in cash games with Soto/Turner among the most expensive bats on the slate. If you are looking for a little exposure without breaking the bank, I do like Schwarber here. We know what we are going to get with him and it's not a consistent average but a ton of power upside as he enters the night with eight home runs and 22 RBI. He should get more opportunities to add to those numbers tonight as Jeff Hoffman has one of the worst walk rates(12.4%) in the league and also sits with a 6.08 xFIP vs. lefties.
We really cannot complete the article without targeting bats against Joe Ross. He has given up a home run in six straight starts, twice has given up 8+ earned runs in that time and has given up 5+ hits in all but one of those. Ooof! What makes the Reds really stand out here is that they have been much better against right-handed pitching with a wRC+(111) that is 29% higher in the split.
I will start my exposure with Nick Castellanos who is somehow cheaper than Jesse Winker on DraftKings. It really makes no sense considering Castellanos has been one of the best hitters in the game this year with an elite .359/.418/.671 slash line and is among the leaders in almost every category. If you are looking for value, look no further than Tyler Naquin who has been getting hacks near the top of the lineup and has hits in eight of his last nine starts. More good news as Ross has been brutal against lefty bats giving up a .396 wOBA and .508 SLG. Both Reds outfielders are in play in all formats.