Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Palmetto Championship
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Congaree Golf Club - Ridgeland, SC
Par 71 - 7,655 Yards
Greens - Champion Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Welcome back golf fans. First of all, my apologies for no article for the Memorial. Looking back, I believe it was the first or maybe only the second article for a regular PGA Tour event I have missed in my 5.5 years with DFSR. I won't let it happen again!
With the cancelation of the RBC Canadian Open, there is a new event and course this season as the Tour heads to Congaree Golf Club in South Carolina for the Palmetto Championship. Despite hosting World #1 Dustin Johnson and #8 Brooks Koepka, this is by far one of the worst fields we have seen since probably the Puerto Rico Open. It makes sense, however, as next week is the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines so tons of players are already in La Jolla tuning up their games on site.
The course is a unique Tom Fazio design that is surrounded by trees but also has an Australian feel with sand absolutely everywhere. Rather than rough outside the fairways, you see not only sand but waste areas and there is also water in play on 10 holes. It is set up as a Par 71 that stretches over 7600 yards and plays firm and fast.
I will keep my stats model fairly simple looking at ball striking, long iron proximity distances, and extra emphasis on strokes gained: around the green/sand saves. With all that said, let's get into some picks.
Top Tier Targets
While this feels like a possible Koepka letdown before an insane performance at a major, I think we have to take one of these Top 2 players in this ultra-weak field. For me, it's Koepka who has the edge in almost every area over DJ and it starts with form as Brooks has two runner-ups and a win in his last five events while DJ hasn't finished Top 10 in six straight. That gap is backed up by the stats as well as Brooks is 1st in ball striking(3rd OTT, 6th APP), 3rd in Prox from 200+, and 6th in Par 4 scoring over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC). All things considered, Koepka is my top play and I will have exposure in all formats.
With a top tier that is crowded with overpriced players who are going to be chalk, I love the idea of making some leverage pivots and Tommy Fleetwood is my favorite. Looking at FanShareSports, he projects to be the lowest owned in the top tier and despite not being consistent has flashed Top 10 upside several times over the last couple of months. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks(in this field) 11th in SG: Tee to Green, 1st in SG: Around the Green, and 4th in par 4 scoring. While Brooks is my top overall play, Fleetwood is my favorite GPP leverage play.
Mid Tier Targets
There is a good chance people just fade DJ and Brooks at the top and go more balanced and that will most definitely make the $8K and $9K range very popular. Keith Mitchell will most likely be Top 3 highest owned but I lean Noren for a couple of reasons and it starts with form. He has been very consistent lately making the cut in six straight with Top 25's in four of his last five events. The iron game can be up and down but what stands out is that he has been near-elite around the greens gaining one or more strokes in five straight events and ranks 22nd in sand saves in this field.
Even with a season-high salary, I am once again on Vincent Whaley who has been incredibly consistent recently. Since missing three straight cuts in Jan/Feb, he has not only made the cut in nine straight but finished T36 or better in eight straight. Considering he ranks 13th in SG: Tee to Green, 31st in SG: Around the Green, 3rd in Sand Saves, and 7th in par 4 scoring I am totally fine with the increase in price, especially considering the field strength, or lack thereof. I will have exposure in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#281)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
For the price, Burgoon has really started to find some consistency having made eight of his last 10 cuts, and has also flashed some PTS/$ upside with a pair of T13 finishes in May at the Valspar Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson. Numbers-wise there isn't a whole lot that stands out but one thing that grabs my attention are his around-the-green stats as he ranks 3rd in the field over the last 24 rounds. That will be an advantage here and I like Burgoon in all formats this week.