Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 6/11/21
The last few days of the NBA Playoffs have been bizarre. Wednesday night was blowout city with Phoenix destroying Denver, and then Thursday's games were all over the place. We should have some competitive games here, though, with both matchups having 1.5-point spreads. That means it's essentially a coin flip, and I honestly don't really have an opinion on who will win those games. I do have some opinions on who I like for DFS, though, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises in this postseason, and Trae is a major reason why. This young point guard has taken his game to another level, scoring at least 41 DraftKings points in all seven postseason games he's played. That has given him a 46-point average in these playoffs, some of the best fantasy production from any player in the league. That has earned him this $9,500 price tag, and there are only a couple of guys who have the same 40-point floor as Young. Facing Philly sounds tough, but Young averages 46.2 fantasy points per game in his four meetings this season.
We were pretty concerned about Paul's health this time last week, but the Game 2 gem that CP3 posted put all of that doubt in the garbage. The future Hall-of-Famer collected 17 points, five rebounds, and 15 assists in that spectacular performance and did not commit a turnover. That's an amazing line, and it makes it hard to understand why he's only $7,100 0n DraftKings. It was actually his second-straight game in this series with at least 49 fantasy points, and he should have no problem duplicating that against this dismantled Denver defense. If he does reach that total, CP3 will be in every winning lineup out there.
Facundo Campazzo has been sneaky good for Denver throughout the postseason and shouldn't be forgotten.
Booker has established himself as one of the best scorers in the NBA, and he's truly taking the next step in this pristine postseason run. While he's taken a slight backseat to Paul in the first two games of this series, Book still has at least 38 DK points in four straight games, generating a 46-point average in that span. That's all you can ask for from a guy barely cracking $8,000, and we expect this game to be a lot closer than the first two blowouts. If we get Booker taking 20-plus shots and playing 40 minutes in this close matchup, 40-50 fantasy points should be his floor.
Kevin Huerter FD - $5300 DK - $4700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.93 DK - 23.33
With De'Andre Hunter out for the rest of the postseason, Huerter should be in for a big workload. That's certainly been the case in the first two games of this series, scoring at least 29 DK points in both of them while playing 33 minutes a night. That's even better than what we saw in the regular season, and it makes this $5,000 price tag really hard to understand. We're talking about a guy who averaged 30 DK points per game across 35 minutes for a three-month stretch earlier this year, and one has to believe he'll take over almost all of Hunter's minutes. He's actually been outstanding against this stifling Sixers defense, too, averaging 26 fantasy points per game in their three meetings.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a revelation for Atlanta and remains a good value.
Mikal Bridges FD - $6100 DK - $4900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.68 DK - 29.36
While this FanDuel price is definitely appropriate, this DraftKings price is beyond silly. Putting Bridges below $5,000 is absolutely criminal, with the defensive stopper averaging 26.3 fantasy points per game in the regular season. That alone makes him a good value at this price but dropping 64 combined fantasy points in the first two games of this series makes it even more mind-boggling. The simple fact is, Bridges is the best defensive player in this series, and it's going to guarantee him 35-40 minutes a night, as long as the games stay close. That's fully expected to be the case here, and we also love the fact that Mikal is averaging 31 DK points per game in his five meetings with the Nugs this year.
Danny Green FD - $5000 DK - $4500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 22.88 DK - 22.72
Danny Green has been all over the map in terms of fantasy production this season, but he always seems to play better in the postseason. That goes all the way back to his Lakers and Spurs days, with the sharpshooter stepping up when the lights are the brightest. It's certainly been the case recently, with Danny scoring at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last five games. That's an amazing number from a $4,500 player, and it looks even better when you see his shooting numbers. Green is just 2-of-14 from three-point range over the last three games, and that means it's just a matter of time before he knocks down five or six threes in one of these. Facing a 21st-ranked Atlanta defense might be the thing that gets him rolling again.
Keep an eye on Will Barton. If he can surpass 25 minutes, he could be a huge value south of $6,000.
John Collins FD - $6500 DK - $5800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.66 DK - 36.94
Collins has a limited upside with Trae stealing so many shots and Clint Capela swallowing up so many rebounds, but he's still too good to be this cheap. We're talking about a guy who averaged 32 fantasy points per game in the regular season and has scored at least 23 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games. That's hard to overlook from a $6K player, especially when you see that he's played at least 34 minutes in three straight games. Those minutes should be the floor with Hunter sidelined, and it'd be hard for him to fall below 25-30 fantasy points in this big of a role.
Jae Crowder FD - $5500 DK - $5100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.32 DK - 30.2
Crowder is not the sort of guy who will carry your lineup with 50 fantasy points, but there aren't many better bets for 5X value out there. We say that because he only needs 25 fantasy points to reach that threshold, and that's been a regular thing for him recently. In fact, Jae has scored at least 23 DK points in six of his last seven games, averaging just shy of 30 fantasy points per game in that span. The thing that's led to this big floor is his minutes total and shot attempts, with Crowder playing over 30 minutes a night in that span while taking at least eight three-pointers in four of his last five games. As long as those things continue, Crowder will remain a vivacious value.
Aaron Gordon has looked better at times in this series and is a good option around $5K.
Nikola Jokic FD - $10600 DK - $10700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 59.82 DK - 62.26
Picking between Joel Embiid and Jokic will be one of the most important things on this slate, and we're going to go with the MVP. While the first two games in this series have not been pretty, Jokic still reached at least 47 fantasy points in both of them. That's a good indicator of how monstrous Jokic's floor is, with both games being decided well before the final whistle. There's also the narrative factor, with Joker receiving his MVP award before the game. That should already have him hyped but with Denver down 0-2 at home, Jokic should be feeling it more than usual. He's killed the Suns all year, too, averaging over 55 fantasy points per game in their five meetings this year.
Deandre Ayton FD - $7400 DK - $6800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.26 DK - 37.37
Many people have considered this kid a "bust" for whatever reason, but he's showing why those notions are silly in this postseason. The blossoming 22-year-old has six double-doubles in his eight playoff games, with the only two outliers being blowouts. That means he's averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game in those six outings, which is truly absurd from a $7K player. What makes him even more intriguing is the fact that he gets a matchup with Jokic. The Joker is probably the best offensive center in the NBA, but he's also one of the worst defensive players in the league too.
Joel Embiid is obviously one of the best options out there if you have the salary.