Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/13/21
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Bieber continues to be one of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball, dialing up the strikeouts with the best of them. He’s putting down almost 13 batters per nine this season, which amazingly is a dip from his numbers last season. But the xFIP still sits under 3.00 and he still induces ground ball at a 46% rate. He’s just an elite arm and on Sunday face a Mariners team as a -228 home favorite with 7.5 over/under. This is the spot to pay up for him in cash and he’s the safest arm on the slate.
Rodin has sure turned things around this season, showing much more of the high upside promise many had dreamed about earlier in his career. This is shaping up to be, by far, his best year thanks to increased velocity on his fastball which he’s throwing more often and ditching the sinker he’d been using for years. It’s paying off. He’s striking out batters at a 37% clip and the 2.73 xFIP is just slightly behind the 1.96 ERA. On Sunday he’ll face off against a weaker Tigers’ lineup in a smash spot for the lefty.
This game between the Red Sox and the Blue Jays has the highest implied run line to open the slate with an over/under of 10. Guerrero is having an MVP-type season so far with an OPS around 1.100 thanks to tremendous power with 19 home runs already and an elite 15% K rate. He’s quickly become one of the very best hitters in the league and faces off against the lefty Perez in this matchup. His OPS is lower against lefties for his career, but a lot of that is BABIP driven. This is a smash spot for Vlad.
Bell wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday against the lefty, but should be back in the middle of the order when they face Cueto on Sunday. The latter has had solid control this season, but still isn’t striking out more than eight batters per nine. And the ERA is starting to creep up after some run hot to start the season. Bell isn’t going back to his 2019 numbers, but if he’s in the middle of the lineup at these prices in a plus matchup then he’s a value play.
Like we said with Guerrero, the Blue Jays are shaping up to be an elite stack on this slate against Perez who has an xFIP in the mid-4’s and is striking out fewer than a batter per inning. Semien is still in the leadoff slot with George Springer still out and has bounced back this season with a mid-.800s OPS and 13 home runs through his first 274 plate appearances.The price is higher on both sites, but it’s worth it for the better side of his platoon.
If Kike Hernández (FD $2400 DK $4100) is back in the leadoff slot against the lefty Robbie Ray on Sunday then he’s a very good option. He has an .804 OPS against lefties for his career and is tough to strikeout at only 18%.
Bichette hasn’t been able to put up the same numbers he did last season, and is striking out a bit more this time around. But hitting in the second spot for the Blue Jays against the lefty here has him looking like a great stacking option with Vlad and Semien. He’s been way better against lefties for his short career with a 150 wRC+ and .394 wOBA in that split. Those are elite numbers and the strikeout expectation is lowered in the matchup against Perez.
This isn’t a great matchup against Pablo Lopez, but Swanson is coming very cheap on FanDuel and has moved up the fifth spot in the lineup. Sometimes the change in lineup order is almost enough to warrant a play in a certain price range and this one fits the bill. the Braves still have a top-heavy top of the order, but Swanson hitting right below the core group is what gives him some upside.
Eugenio Suárez FD - 3B 2700 DK - 3B 4800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - CIN
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.52
It’s been a struggle for Suarez this season and they have actually moved him down a bit in the order, but the spot is a good one against Senzatela who is one of the weaker projected arms on the slate. The good news is that Suarez already has 13 home runs on the season. The bad news is that’s about all he’s done with an OPS that’s barely scraping over .600 and 30% strikeout rate. So yeah. But the K expectation is greatly reduced in this matchup and he’s in the best hitter’s park on the slate.
Riley appears locked into the cleanup spot right and has been having a nice season with an .882 and 11 home runs so far. The price doesn’t reflect his move up in the lineup without Acuna around and the FanDuel price is particularly attractive. But the DraftKings price is in play too considering the projected plate appearance expectation.
Teoscar Hernández FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - BOS
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.16
We can close off the top of the Blue Jays stack with Hernandez hitting in the cleanup spot against the lefty Perez. Hernandez is pushing up against an .800 OPS for the season but for his career is better against lefties with a 121 wRC+ and .350 wOBA. The strikeout rate is the same in both platoons, but he’s got a much higher slugging against the southpaws. He’s way too cheap on FanDuel and bargain on DraftKings as well.
If India is sticking in the leadoff slot for the Reds then he’s coming much too cheap on this slate, especially on FanDuel. While he’s not a tremendous hitter, the plate appearance expectation at the top of this order has him in a great spot against Senzatela. The OPS is hovering around .700 but he is walking around 11% of the time and has little bits of power (five home runs) and speed (three stolen bases). The Reds have one of the highest implied run lines on this slate and India is a great FD value.
With Bogaerts out of the lineup on Saturday, Renfroe moved up to the five spot against the lefty. And he should be in a similar spot against Robbie Ray on Sunday. Ray is a tough matchup for sure with an elite K rate and he’s gotten his stuff under control as well. But Renfroe is coming very cheap and has been great in this split for his career with a .913 OPS and .377 wOBA in that split. Bad matchup, but better side of his platoon is the story here.