Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/7/21 - Main Slate
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Paddack is about a run better than his 4.56 ERA with a 3.55 xFIP on the season. He’s run bad on the LOB% which has driven up the ERA some but is still solid on the peripherals with a 4.4:1 K:BB ratio and he’s also inducing groundballs at around a 43% rate. He’s a -170 home favorite against the Nationals on Wednesday evening, a solid win expectation on a slate without much in the way of stud arms. The Nats aren’t a great matchup, but the pitching options are fantastic either.
Alex Wood is having his best season since 2018 with a 3.59 xFIP and 9.55 Ks per nine while also keeping the walks mostly down. Like Paddack, he’s a -172 home favorite against the Cardinals, but the latter is a better matchup than the Nationls, ranking in the bottom-third in team offense this season.
Since we aren’t going to be paying through the nose for pitching on this evening slate, I think we can easily target some of the expensive Jays bats on this slate. And what better way to start than Vlad Jr? He’s having an MVP-like season to start off with a 1.100+ OPS and 27 home runs already. It’s a breakout campaign to say the least and he’s putting together one of the best age-22 seasons you’ll ever see. Against Matt Harvey, one of the leagues gas cans, this is great place to start cash games.
Gurriel doesn’t get a great matchup with Manaea, but that is ok in this situation considering the price and what the former is doing this season. Yule has an .885 OPS on the season thanks to some power (10 home runs) but his patience as well. He is walking (11%) more than he’s striking out (9%) which is a feat in and of itself. He’s been much better against lefties this season with a 1.000 OPS in that split along with a 171 wRC+. Even against an above-average arm, this is a fine spot to run him cheaper than Vlad.
Stacking the top four of the Blue Jays order is going to look real enticing on this slate with Semien retaining the top spot even with George Springer back in the mix. Semien deserves it considering the season he’s having with a low-.900s OPS and 21 home runs already. He’s also mixed in the speed with 10 stolen bases as well. Toronto guys are expensive for a good reason, but Harvey and his garbage peripherals could be in real trouble here.
Meanwhile, Biggio hits lower in the order but is coming much cheaper if you want to prioritize some other bigger bats. He’s able to get on base with a 14% walk rate, though does K a little more than you’d like to see. His 700-ish OPS is fine enough considering the offense he plays in and he is a bargain on both sites.
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD 4500 DK 5900
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 14.93 DK - 11.3
We are going to want to pay up at shortstop on this main slate and Tatis fits the bill there. His 1.083 OPS is one of the best in the game and he’s just the very definition of a fantasy star with 27 home runs and 18 stolen bases already. These numbers are frankly ridiculous and he could press up to a 40-30 season when it is all said and done. He’s awesome against righties and lefties, though slightly better against the latter. This is a smash spot for Tatis.
While Bichette doesn’t sport quite the same OPS upside as th other dudes at the top of the Blue Jays’ order, there’s plenty to like about the guy from a fantasy perspective. He is well on his way to a 30-20 season with 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases already. Plus, hitting second in this lineup has just massive advantages in the run-scoring department. He’s expensive, but again, the pitching isn’t going to cost you an arm and a leg.
Corbin has struggled this year, losing some of the peripherals we saw back in 2019 and before. It has been a drop-off or him since and he is now sporting a 4.30 xFIP while striking out fewer than eight batters per nine. Meanwhile, Machado isn’t putting up the same numbers from his bounce-back 2020 season, but he still has a mid-800s OPS and is going to hit double-digit stolen bases for the second time in his career. He will finish the season as a 20-10 guy at least.
George Springer FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 14.9 DK - 11.2
Springer has dealt with injury issues this season but looks healthy now and is locked into the cleanup spot for the Blue Jays. Against Matt Harvey who brings in a 7.22 K/9 and 4.80 xFIP could be in for some real trouble against a Toronto lineup that is very patient and packs a lot of power. I suspect they are the most popular stack on the slate with the ability to fit at least a couple of these top-of-the-order bats.
Myers has a low-700s OPS on the season, but he’s coming cheap in a good offense against a weaker lefty on this slate. Though he’s going to sit in the lower half of the order, the price makes up for that. He’s been just slightly better against lefties for his career, though is mostly platoon neutral. Again, this is a price play in a good offense considering we are spending up at some of the other positions.
Alex Dickerson FD 2500 DK 2800
Opponent - STL (Johan Oviedo) Park - STL
FD - 11.53 DK - 8.76
Dickerson should be in the cleanup spot against Oviedo and the Cardinals on this slate and is coming very cheap across the board. He’s not a prolific hitter, but he’s sufficient with a mid-700s OPS on the season. Again, the DraftKings price is right in the punt zone and the fact that he’s hitting in the heart of the order really helps here.