Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/26/21
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
While his bat has been a bit cold(.214 average) since the break, he came out firing in his first start going six inning against the A's allowing just three hits on and no runs while striking out eight. He also comes in having held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 11 starts and has lowered his ERA to 3.21 on the season backed up by a nice 3.58 xFIP, as well. He now gets a terrific matchup against the Rockies who are the worst road team in the league with an ugly .262 wOBA and .106 ISO. The $11K price tag on FanDuel is a bit much in cash but on DraftKings, he is easily my top pitcher in all formats.
For the second pitcher on DraftKings, it will really come down to how much value pops up when lineups come out. If the value is limited, I will be turning Wade Miley who is having an excellent season in Cincy with a 2.72 ERA/3.74 xFIP. While the K upside is somewhat limited(19.8%), he provides a very solid floor going deep into games(6+ IP in 7 straight) and he has also limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 17 starts. He gets a bit of a boost to the K's as the Cubs strike out 25% of the time vs. lefties and 26% of the time overall and have also been about 15% below average in terms of creating runs out of the ASB. All things considered, I love the safety he provides, and he is an excellent SP2 option on DraftKings.
If you are paying up at first there are two options for me, in cash games, I lean Abreu over Vladdy because of the massive price differential. I get that Abreu isn't on the MVP pace he was a year ago but he is still having a great season in terms of production as he comes in with 18 home runs, 75 RBI, and .218 ISO. What I like most here are the splits as he has been much better against lefties with a .381 wOBA, 145 wRC+, and .337 ISO.
You thought I was going to go Yuli Gurriel here didn't you? I mean, I do have him highlighted and the price is once again right but I wanted to diversify a bit(lol). I am not thrilled by the matchup for the Reds going up against Hendricks which does lower their overall upside but for cash, there are some nice consistent pieces I want exposure to. It starts with Votto who first stands out due to his low price on DraftKings and then it's the form as he comes in with hits in six of his last seven games including two doubles and three home runs. I love the PTS/$ on Draftkings and have him as a top cash play tonight.
Kike Hernández FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Hatch) Park - TOR
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.08
The Red Sox have had the Jays number this season, especially recently where they took both games and outscored them 20-8. The beat rolls on tonight as they get a plus matchup against rookie Hatch, who likely doesn't go long into the game, and the brutal Jays bullpen which has posted a 5.67 ERA and 37.5% Hr/FB rate since the ASB. Hernandez has been the everyday leadoff hitter and never seems to see his price go up despite coming in with hits in six straight including three multi-hit efforts. Once again, the FanDuel price is fair making him not a priority but 4100 on Dk is too cheap for the consistency and matchup.
We are going to need a ton of value tonight, especially on DraftKings where we are going to likely be spending a good amount of salary cap. Enter Alcides Escobar who has fallen off a bit over the last few games but gets all the opportunity in the world hitting leadoff in front of Trea Turner and Juan Soto and the Nats also get a plus matchup, as well. Not a must-play on FanDuel but it will be hard to fade him at that price on DraftKings if he is back in that leadoff spot.
This Red Sox/Jays game feels like there could be 20 runs scored tonight so we better get some exposure. On the Jays side, the lineup has taken a new look over the last week and that has Bo Bichette moving to the cleanup spot where he has already gone 5 for 8 with a home run, four RBI, and three runs scored. The best part about this play is that the opportunity to drive in runs has increased while the price, which touched $6K in late June, is in the low $5K range. It won't be long before that price pops back up so take advantage while you can. He is in play in all formats as my top shortstop.
Also Consider: Trea Turner(WAS) if you have the cash as the Nats are in a great spot or Tim Anderson(CHW)/Carlos Correa(HOU) for GPP as both have been inconsistent lately but are in plus matchups and have huge upside.
Yoán Moncada FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 11.7 DK - 8.86
The White Sox are ranked 2nd in team wOBA(.330) and 3rd in wRC+(111) on the season so anytime they get even a slightly above-average matchup the alarm bells go off. What I like most tonight is that they are relatively cheap to stack the top of the order and that includes Moncada who is coming at a bit of a buy-low for a guy we have seen reach the high $5K mark on DraftKings. He also comes in red-hot with hits in nine of 10 games since the ASB. He is one of my top PTS/$ plays on the slate and a great play in all formats.
The Twins are in a great spot tonight and while the lineup doesn't quite have the upside it did on opening day, there is still PTS/$ value here. It starts with Max Kepler who may be finally starting to heat up as he enters the night with hits in five of his last six-game including three multi-hit efforts and three long balls. He has also been back up hitting at the top of the lineup and is expected to remain there. the price on FanDuel is fair and not a must-play but on DraftKings it is an excellent buy-low opportunity in all formats.
Andrew Vaughn FD - 1B 2800 DK - OF 2600
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.23
If you are paying up for pitching like me tonight, Andrew Vaughn should be at the top of your value list on both sites. The rookie comes at a sub $3K price on both sites, the White Sox are in a good spot as a top projected team, and Vaughn has been red-hot with hits in five straight including three multi-hit efforts and five extra-base hits. Don't overthink it here. He is a top value in all formats.