Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/30/21
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It is very close for me at the top tonight so I will lean on the projections which favor Burnes and by a fairly wide margin. While both have been extremely consistent all season, Burnes gives us so much more in terms of strikeouts with almost a 10% higher K rate and 4% higher swinging strike rate. The Braves are just league average(100 wRC+) against righties but they strike out 25% of time. All things considered, Burnes is my #1 pitcher in all formats.
Once again we have options at SP2 on DraftKings. You can fairly easily pair Lynn and Burnes with all the value on this full slate but if you want more room for bats, I like this spot for Berrios who has seen his price trend back down into the low $8K range. This gives him a high floor and ceiling as he has hit 2x value on DraftKings in eight of his last 10 starts and hit 3x or more in four of those. The matchup isn't at the top of my list but the Cards have been slightly worse against righties(.299 wOBA/88 wRC+) so all things considered, Berrios is my favorite mid-tier value tonight.
This one fits right into the "ride the hot hand" narrative as Votto has been out of this world since the All-Star break. He has now homered in six straight games and has nine in 13 since the break to go along with a .375 average. His price on FanDuel shot up to the point where we really have to contemplate using him in cash button DraftKings, he is still under $5K and will be a core play for me in all formats.
While not quite on the same level as Votto, Rowdy also comes in red-hot with hits in six straight games including four long balls, and has been a welcome addition to the Brewers for their playoff run. The addition of Eduardo Escobar likely pushes him back down to the 5-6 hole and the matchup is average-at-best vs. Toussaint but the price is just too cheap for a player this dialed in right now. Probably won't go here in cash but will have plenty of the cheap power upside in GPP formats.
The Phillies are making a push for the NL East and the offense has been a huge part in the second half as they sit Top 10 in almost all categories in that time. Leading the way is Segura who hits at the top of the lineup and has been a very consistent bat and comes in with hits in 10 of his last 11 games. The price has gotten out of reach on DraftKings but on FanDuel he is still very playable in all formats in the low $3K range.
I am not in love with the matchup here but we cannot ignore the price on Frazier given his new situation. He was great to start his sixth season as a Pirate and after hitting .335 with a jaw-dropping .401 OBP, the Padres came calling to fill a need at the top of their order. The sites have yet to catch up to this new opportunity so let's take advantage while we can. Frazier is in play as a top value for me in all formats.
The Jays are trying to make a push for the playoffs and the offense is most definitely doing their part. We almost want exposure to them daily and facing a lefty, I definitely want exposure to Bichette who has a .409 wOBA and 160 wRC+ in the split. Bo also has been red-hot since being moved to the cleanup spot with hits in five of six games with a double, two home runs, and eight RBI. There are a lot of ways to go about getting exposure to the Jays bats and for me, it starts with Bo.
The Twins have traded away Nelson Cruz thus giving up any hope of the playoffs but that doesn't mean we can't target value in their lineup. Tonight is also a good night for it as they get a plus matchup vs. Wade LeBlanc who has given up 18 hits over his last three starts. For Polanco, he hits at the top of the lineup and has been on fire since the ASB hitting .354 with a .428 wOBA. I will have exposure in all formats as he is my favorite PTS/$ play at the position.
The price is really getting up there on DraftKings but this play is more for FanDuel where he is 3B eligible and still very affordable. He is in the race for the NL Rookie of the Year award and for good reason as he enters the night with an elite .398 OBP(5th best in all of baseball) and is a huge spark plug at the top of the Reds lineup. Pairing India and Votto together is one of my top two-player stacks in any format tonight.
Value at this position is fairly tough to come by but one that stands out is Ty France who has been en fuego since the ASB with hits in 11 of 12 games(.375 avg). The Mariners are also in a pretty good spot here facing a struggling Kolby Allard who has given up 36 hits, 25 earned runs, and eight home runs over his last six starts. All things considered, France is one of my top PTS/$ plays at any position tonight.
The Orioles are far from a contender but have two of the best stories in baseball sitting in the outfield. Let's start with Trey Mancini is most likely a lock for the Comeback Player of the Year award after not only beating Colon Cancer and returning the bigs but has been very productive with 19 home runs, 57 runs scored, and 60 RBI. For fantasy, that upside comes more often against lefties as he has an elite .401 wOBA, 158 wRC+, and .295 ISO in the split.
For Mullins, he has slowly progressed in his young career and has flourished in his thrid season as he comes into tonight hitting .319 with a .382 OBP which gives him a very high floor right off the top. Then he adds a ton of upside as one of just three players with 15+ home runs and stolen bases. If choosing just one of these two, it is Mullins for me with all he can provide and on FanDuel comes at a $600 discount.
We can't talk about awesome baseball stories in 2021 without talking about Akil Baddoo. After spending five years stuck in the Twins system he was selected in the Rule 5 draft by Tigers which immediately place him on the 40 man roster prompting an opening day start. He homered in his very first at-bat and has n't looked back since.
For fantasy, I am more focused on his recent form as he has hits in nine of 12 games since the ASB with a .383 wOBA and 144 wRC+ from the leadoff spot. The price is a little steep on FanDuel where he will be GPP only but on DraftKings, I am on board in all formats.