Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/12/21
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Happy Field of Dreams day everyone! It has been a long time in the making but they built it and the Yankees and White Sox have arrived to play. The game is not on the main slate but you can bet I will have some action on this one in some form another. Let's dig in and look at some top DFS plays covering the entire day of baseball on Thursday.
Chris Bassitt FD - P 9900 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - CLE (Eli Morgan) Park - CLE
FD - 36.13 DK - 19.83
Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10200
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 36.75 DK - 21.05
On the early slate, we get two aces on the mound, and on DraftKings I think we can consider pairing them together at just over $20K combined. Let's start with Bassitt who has been dominant in his last two starts going seven innings in both holding the Rangers and Angels to a combined one earned run with 15 strikeouts and just one walk. He gets the tougher matchup of the two but I list him first as I prefer him on FanDuel with the $1,100 discount.
For Woodruff, he is a part of the best rotations in baseball and leads them with an elite 2.23 ERA and he is not only a safe play but has a ton of upside with a 30% K rate. The system has him as the top option tonight on both sites and it's hard to argue as he faces a Cubs depleted Cubs team that is striking out 28% of the time over the last two weeks.
I couldn't be more excited about this game as a Jays fans but also an Ohtani fan. Both pitchers are on my player pool in this smaller three-game slate but Berrios gets the edge in the much better matchup. He faces an Angels offense that has lost three of their last four(going into Wednesday night) and have tallied just a 73 wRC+ over the last two weeks with a 25% K rate. For Berrios, he has been terrific since coming over to Toronto at the deadline holding the Royals and Red Sox to a combined one earned run while striking out 13 and walking one. At these prices and as a -135 favorite, Berrios is my top pitcher on the main slate.
For the Happy Hour slate today on DraftKings I will be building my bats around the Braves and more specifically, Freddie Freeman. While not quite the MVP campaign he had a year ago, Freeman is still hitting .294 with an elite .395 on-base percentage. What stands out more than anything here is that he has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .405 wOBA and Gutierrez has a 6.58 xFIP and has given up a .342 OBA to lefties. Lock and load!
Albert Pujols FD - 1B 2200 DK - 1B 2500
Opponent - PHI (Ranger Suárez) Park - PHI
FD - 7.71 DK - 5.85
The Dodgers face a lefty tonight so we are almost guaranteed to see the future Hall-of-Famer in the lineup on Thursday. He comes at near min price on both sites and while he has been reduced to a platoon player that hasn't stopped him from dominating lefties to the tune of a .399 wOBA and 155 wRC+. If in the lineup, he will be in almost all my lineups with how much his salary opens up elsewhere.
The Tigers get a matchup against John Means who shut them down in their last meeting at the end of July but I just can't ignore Schoop for multiple reasons. It starts with his insane form as he has tallied a multi-hit game in six of his last seven and is hitting .333 with a 133 wRC+ since the break. On top of that, he has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .435 wOBA and .263 ISO. He was also one of the only Tigers who had success against Means in that starts going 1 for 2 with a walk. All things considered, he is my top paly at second today.
Jean Segura FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4000
Opponent - LAD (Undecided) Park - PHI
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.48
The matchup may not be at the top of the list but it is hard to ignore Segura at these prices. He has been consistent all season and terrific since the break hitting .292 with a monster .373 wOBA and .202 ISO.
I am very high on the Mariners today for multiple reasons and it starts with their elite PTS/$ value. It starts at the leadoff spot with Crawford who has hit .296 with a 111 wRC+ since taking over the spot in the lineup and went into Wednesday night with hits in six straight and 11 of his last 12 games. He is in play in all formats, especially on DraftKings where he is one of my top overall value plays.
Also Consider: Tim Anderson(CHW) if dabbling in the Field of Dreams game as he has reached his lowest price on DraftKings since the last week of July and comes in red hot. You will also need some value on this small two-game Happ Hour slate and Kyle Farmer(CIN) helps that cause on DraftKings and has crushed lefties to the tune of a .399 wOBA and .254 ISO
Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 3800 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.32
While we aren't getting the typical monster Arenado season, he still comes in with above-average numbers in the counting stats including home runs(22) and RBI(68). There is also some good news regarding the lower average we have seen in his final season with the Rockies in 2020 and this year with the Cards. He is running a BABIP that is 40 points lower than his career average while recording a barrel rate and hard-hit % right on par with career numbers. He is my top third basemen on this slate.
I talked about the value for the Mariners tonight but with Seager that really only extends to DraftKings, at last for cash games. It has been a rough year overall for Seager but the good news is that he has been much better since the break and has a .373 wOBA and 143 wRC+ since July 20. He and M's now face Mike Foltynewicz who may look like he has found it in his last two starts(3 ER) but considering he has walked six and struck out just three, I am not buying it. For the season, he has a 5.77 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, and has given up a league-high 21 home runs!
Rounding out the Mariners stack in the article is Mitch Haniger who was nearly at a $6K price tag on DraftKings at the beginning of the month. It is a smaller sample size but Haniger has actually been slightly better in the second half with a .352 wOBA and 129 wRC+ and like I mentioned with Seager, gets an elite matchup giving him a very high PTS/$ projection on DraftKings in the mid $4K range. I will have exposure in all formats.
As of writing this, the Orioles and Tigers game has a monster total(11) and my favorite play in the game is All-Star Cedric Mullins. He extended his hit streak to 18 games last night and went into the game hitting g.346 with a .424 wOBA since the mid-summer classic. He provides an elite combination of safety and upside and comes very affordably priced on both sites making him a core play in all formats.