Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/16/21
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Cole hasn't pitched in two weeks and his last start was a bit of a disaster(7 ER to @TB) but he is easily the best pitcher on this slate that lacks a whole lot of depth. There has been no announcement of a pitch count at the time of writing this so I am going to assume there won't be one which puts him easily at the top of the projections. Even with multiple hiccups along the way, Cole comes into his 22nd start of the season with a 3.11 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, and 34% K rate. He now gets a plus matchup against the Angels who have been producing runs 28% below league average over the past 14 days. Fire up Cole in all formats.
If you are not planning on paying up for Cole and Gausmna together tonight, Wade Miley is a solid SP2 option on DraftKings in the mid-tier. While the strikeout upside is limited(18.5% K rate), Miley has been terrific for the Reds in 2021 as he enters tonight's start with a 3.00 ERA and has only allowed more than three earned runs in a start four times. What stands out the most is the matchup vs. the depleted Cubs lineup that has a 79 wRC+ and 32% K rate since the trade deadline.
Gurriel is back after missing two weeks with a neck strain and while he hasn't recorded a hit in two games, he has walked twice and only struck out once. As a whole, the veteran is having a career year hitting .321 with a .386 OBP and a huge contributor in that #1 offense on Houston. The matchup is average as Carlos Hernandez has been good, not great(3.33 ERA/4.34 xFIP) since joining the rotation so I will have much more exposure to Gurriel on FanDuel with the lower pricing(relative to salary cap).
Jesús Aguilar FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Touki Toussaint) Park - ATL
FD - 9.39 DK - 7.06
I don't think anyone will be rostering Marlins bats in cash games tonight but if you are looking for some upside at a lower ownership in GPP, don't rule out the Marlins. They face Touki Toussaint who has looked elite at times but also looked vulnerable recently walking seven in his last three and giving up home runs in four straight starts. This lines up perfectly for Aguilar who has been a power machine entering the night with 22 home runs and 84 RBI with a .221 ISO. He is a top GPP play at the position for me on both sites, especially DraftKings in the low $3K range.
The Coors Field factor has increased in the summer months as games are averaging 12.5 runs since the second half started. The takes me to my favorite team to target in the Padres and my favorite cash play in Adam Frazier. He hasn't gotten off to the best start with his new team but has the skillset(.376 OBP) to thrive in front of Tatis and Machado. The bottom line is that the price is just way too cheap for the leadoff or two-hitter in the lineup on a powerful Padres team playing Coors. Don't overthink it.
While I prefer Frazier on DraftKings with his price differential, the same can be said for Brandon Lowe on FanDuel sitting as the 10th most expensive option at the position. Sure, he doesn't get a game in Coors Field but he does get a plus matchup against Matt Harvey who, despite a few glimpses into the Dark Knight's past, has still been terrible this season(6.10 ERA/4.84 xFIP). You never really know what the Tampa lineup is going to look like but the good news is that Lowe has consistently hit leadoff all season and if there again, will be a core play for me on Fanduel tonight.
Cronenworth has multiple position tags across the sites but I will concentrate on DraftKings tonight as that is where his price stands out the most. The Padres are in Coors and projected for 6+ runs and Cronenworth is trending up as he carries a terrific second-half .379 wOBA and 139 wRC+ into tonight. While Tatis and Machado are expensive making a full stack tough in cash, I absolutely love the two-man stack with Frazier and Cronenwroth giving us exposure to the big bats at a discount.
Carlos Correa FD 3500 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 13.53 DK - 10.18
While Cronenworth was filling in at shortstop in the short-term, Correa is the everyday shortstop for the Astros and checks a ton of boxes tonight. It starts with the price on DraftKings that is sitting at 18th most expensive at the position and while he isn't having his best season, he has still produced for fantasy with 18 home runs, 62 RBI, and 75 runs scored. Even if hitting back in the 5-6 spot in the lineup that is too cheap for the talent. I like the Astros and Correa in all formats tonight.
Ke'Bryan Hayes FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - LAD (Undecided) Park - LAD
FD - 10.86 DK - 7.89
You can most definitely pay up for Manny Machado or Jose Ramirez tonight but I prefer the value route at least for cash games. It has been a learning curve for Hayes in his first full season in the big leagues but that has helped keep the up-and-coming stars price very low. More good news as he comes in with hits in four straight in including two multi-hit efforts and can be used as a one-off in cash or as a part of a very low-owned Pirates stack.
I don't even know what to say about DraftKings pricing anymore. Donaldson recently missed three days with a sore hamstring but returned over the weekend, picked up hits in all three games against the Rays but yet has seen his price dip even lower to start the week. I am not thrilled about the matchup against Quantrill so he won't be in my FanDuel lineups but i just can't ignore the DK price tonight.
Aaron Judge FD 4300 DK 5300
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 15.49 DK - 11.45
I have been mostly concentrating on PTS/$ bats throughout the article so let's spend some of that cash we should have hanging around at this point. The Yankees are right near the top of the board in terms of implied runs in a plus matchup against Jose Suarez who has given up 22 hits and 15 earned runs in 20 IP since the break. It's hard not to like any of the power bats in the Yankees outfield but if choosing just one it's Judge for me who comes in hot in August with a .408 wOBA, 163 wRC+, and five home runs.
Michael Brantley FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.69
Every day I do these articles and set up my sheets I am expecting Brantley's price to finally go back up on DraftKings but it just never does. It truly makes no sense as he continues to lead all of baseball in average(.332) and gets the elite opportunity for fantasy hitting 2nd for the top offense in baseball in Houston. Don't overthink it and include him in your player pool in all formats.