Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – The Northern Trust
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The FedEx Cup Playoffs are here and they start with The Northern Trust which heads back to Liberty National Golf Club for the second time in three years. All but one(Louis Oosthuizen) of the Top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings are teeing it up with the Top 70 advancing to the BMW Championship next week.
Before we get into this week's picks, let's once again take a look at the new(ish) playoff format and how it how changed things for the better, at least in my opinion. First of all, the PGA Tour lowered the # of events to three which avoids top-ranked players taking the first event off and watering down the field. The second thing was widely criticized as the Tour changed the way the Tour Championship would be played. Essentially your ranking gives you a correlated starting score to begin the event(The player in first starts the Tour Championship at -10, 2nd at -8 and so on). To see the complete rundown check out this LINK. While this new format seems gimmicky, what it does is raise the importance of those first two events as every single point earned can make a huge difference.
Looking at the course, Liberty National is a Par 71 that is listed at 7,410 yards on the scorecard. While the fairways are slightly smaller than average, the first cut of rough is only listed at 1.5 inches which does allow golfers to grip it and rip it and not worry as much about accuracy. The biggest challenge comes on the approach shot as the greens at Liberty National are among the smallest on tour and have added difficulty of undulation.
With that information and stats from previous seasons, here are the top stats in my model:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 200+ Yards
- Par 4 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Birdie or Better %
Now let's take a look at the scorecard, previous winners here and then jump into the picks!
Liberty National Golf Club
Par 71 - 7,410 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
- 2019 Northern Trust - Patrick Reed(-16)
- 2013 Barclays - Adam Scott(-11)
Top Tier Targets
Spieth comes into the playoffs sitting at #2 in the rankings thanks to a spectacular 2021 portion of the season. Since missing the cut at the Farmers back in late January, he has reeled off 15 straight made cuts including a win(Valero), seven Top 5's, and 12 Top 25 finishes. He now returns to a course in which he has looked very comfortable with a T19 and T6 in two twips. All things considered, he is one of my core plays in all formats and I will also be betting him outright with a Top 5 each way.
I really wanted to write up Rahm in this spot but just can't ignore the price on Rory who checks almost every single box starting with course history as, like Spieth, has finishes of T19 and T6 in two trips. He also enters the playoffs with some nice form with a win(Wells Fargo), two Top 10's, and four Top 25 finishes in his last six events while gaining four or more strokes on approach in five of those events. I absolutely love the PTS/$ upside for Rory at these prices and will have exposure in all formats.
Mid Tier Targets
There is a good chance Scott comes in as the highest owned golfer this week but I just couldn't find a reason not to include him in my core. First of all, he won this event here at Liberty National when it was the Barclays and then followed that up with a T5 here in 2019. He now comes into this week after an impressive T2 at the Wyndham Championship last week on the back of an elite iron game where he gained 6.9 strokes on approach. As the 21st and 22nd most expensive golfer on DraftKings and FanDuel, Scott is most definitely in play in all formats.
FedEx Cup Rank (#45)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
The theme of this article has quickly become red-hot irons and we can't have that conversation without mentioning Paul Casey who is playing some excellent golf lately. Through 12 events in 2021, he has seven Top 10's and nine Top 25 finishes and has gained a whopping four or more strokes on approach in eight of those events including five straight. On top of that, he ranks 5th in this field in Proximity from 200+ yards, 3rd in par 5 scoring, and 11th in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. Casey is in play in all formats.
FedEx Cup Rank (#73)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
The value range is juicy this week with players entering with good form and Seamus Power is one of them. It has been a tale of two seasons for Power who started out with five missed cuts in his first six events but has since put together a streak of 10 straight made cuts including a win at the Barbasol with six Top 25 finishes in his last seven events. He has been strong with the irons ranked 25th in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and when missing the green, he has an elite around the green game(3rd in SG: Around the Green), as well. The thing that separated him from other top values in Vegas and Grace is the face he has been an elite putter on Bentgrass(24th on my sheet).
- Singapore SMBC Open Golf: (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)