Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/20/21
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With Gerrit Cole getting peppered on Sunday, this is a huge opportunity for Ray to get a stranglehold on the American League CY Young. He is the most expensive pitcher on this slate but has, by far, the biggest leash of the top pitchers. He has been dominant all season and especially against Tampa Bay giving up just seven earned runs in five starts vs. the rays with a 46:3 K to walk ratio. The Rays also strike out the third-most(25.5%) against southpaws this season. Fire up Ray in all formats.
In terms of an SP2 on DraftKings, I am very puzzled by the price on Suarez considering how good he has been since joining the rotation. His first few starts were fairly limited as they stretched him out but over his last five starts, he has held opponents to just five total earned runs while topping 19 DK/34 FD points in each of those starts. He now faces a struggling O's team that has dropped eight of their last nine and struck out 32% of the time over the last seven days and 25% over the last 14. Suarez is easily my top SP2 option tonight alongside Ray.
After a day off on Sunday, Gurriel should be back in the lineup tonight and continues to come at a tremendous PTS/$ value on both sites. We have talked about it all season and nothing changes down the stretch as he enters with multi-hit efforts in five of his last seven games pushing his average up to .314 for the season. His power upside comes against lefties but he has still been solid against righties with a .349 wOBA and 126 wRC+. At these prices, he is my top play at first base and easily stackable with multiple teammates.
The Phillies are thick in the playoff race down the stretch and will be looking to take advantage of a plus matchup and series against the Orioles. For Realmuto, he enters the night with hits in five of his last six games but more importantly has seen his price drop off the table on DraftKings. That creates an excellent buy-low opportunity in plus matchup for the Phillies catcher and cleanup hitter. He is a core play in all formats tonight.
Let's stick with the Phillies here and roll out a red-hot Segura at second base. He has hits in four straight and 14 of his last 15 games pushing his average up to .300 for the season. While John Means hasn't been terrible, Segura has been dominant against left-handed pitching with a .385 wOBA and 141 wRC+ and sets the table perfectly for Harper and Realmuto. For cash games, I love pairing Segura with Realmuto and then adding Harper and others to the GPP build.
I am not really sure what to make of this matchup yet as Toronto goes up against the Rays top prospect, Shane Baz who has been terrific at the AAA level this season. What I do know is that the Jays are in a fight for their playoff lives and it has been largely driven by the offense which is averaging over seven runs per game in September. Bichette has been right in the middle of it with a .405 wOBA and 157 wRC+ in the month. He is in play in all formats.
Also Consider: Carlos Correa(HOU) who is priced down, likely gets a move up the order with injuries, and gets a plus matchup
Lineup construction on this smaller slate has been made much easier, at least on DraftKings by the prices of some of the top bats on the highest projected scoring teams. Bregman is one of these DraftKings super-values as his price continues to drop despite hitting .350 in September with a .403 on-base percentage. The Astros are my top team to target overall and I will be heavy on a Gurriel/Bregman stack in cash games.
Austin Riley FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (Humberto Mejía) Park - ARI
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.61
The ownership likely won't even get too high on Bregman thanks to the similar falling price on Austin Riley. We have discussed his breakout all season and it's not like he has really tailed off as he comes in with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games. The Braves also get a plus matchup tonight so the decision is tough at third, at least on DraftKings. I do favor Riley on FanDuel with the $700 salary differential.
Adam Duvall FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - ARI (Humberto Mejía) Park - ARI
FD - 10.37 DK - 7.79
The top bats in the outfield tonight are either in bad matchups or priced right out of cash game consideration if you are paying up for Ray at starting pitcher. This has me gravitate to Adam Duvall who should be priced with those guys if just looking at just recent performance. He has been arguably carrying the team on his back down the stretch as he enters with hits in all 15 September games, good for a .431 wOBA and 169 wRC+. All things considered, Duvall is easily one of my top PTS/$ plays in the outfield.
My preferred build tonight is going to be Ray/Suarez at pitcher with a mix of Phillies, Astros, and Braves. All three of those teams have some expensive bats we are going to want exposure to and they shouldn't be too hard to fit with all the value available. This is mostly a speculation play as Kyle Tucker exited Sunday's game and is questionable on Monday and if he is out McCormick would likely get moved up a spot or two. He may not be an upside bat but comes in with hits in four straight starts so stay tuned for starting lineups. If starting, I will have exposure in all formats.