Weekly Fantasy Football Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 12 - Thanksgiving Day Slate
Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one-week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now!
From a cash perspective, you are likely spending up for one of the two expensive quarterbacks on this slate and that’s going to mean rostering either Allen or Dak. Allen is the third-highest per game scoring quarterback on DraftKings this season even though the production has been a bit hit or miss of late. One of the main issues is that he has barely run in the last two games, rushing for just 21 total yards in that span. His floor this season has come from his legs and here’s to hoping he gets back to some of that against the Saints. New Orleans is great against the run (1st in DVOA) but middling (14th) against the pass this season. Allen still has the higher floor between he and Dak.
The Cowboys have the highest implied total of the three-game slate thanks in part to the Raiders having the 22nd ranked defense on the season. Dak struggled against the Chiefs throwing for only 216 yards, two picks, and no touchdowns in his 43 attempts. That is pretty damn bad and the loss of the WRs may be catching up with him. It looks like he will be without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb in this game, leaving the receiving corps pretty thin. I’m putting him behind Allen for cash but way above anyone else going on Thanksgiving Day.
The Lions have the 5th-worst defense in the league this season and rank 29th against the run. Montgomery played 95% of the snaps last week against the Ravens, carrying the ball 14 times and getting one target in the passing game. That feels like the absolute basement on expected opportunity considering the snap count and I think we can expect to see much more volume against the Lions in this matchup.
Mark Ingram II FD 6600 DK 6200
Proj Points FD - 12.7 DK - 14.56
It doesn’t look like Alvin Kamara is going to be able to suit up for this game, giving Ingram another shot at a lot of touches on Thursday evening. He’s seen 24 and 21 touches respectively over the last two weeks, becoming the Saints bell-cow back with Kamara out. And he’s been efficient enough, gaining 4.5 yards per carry on the ground and 5.7 yards per target through the air. He played 72% of the snaps last week which is a good sign even if the game script goes sideways in this one. The Bills have been a great defense on the season, but Ingram is just getting too much opportunity in this price tier.
The Cowboys are -7 home favorites in this one which should make Ezekiel Elliott a safer play. But he might be a little banged up and Dallas has been fine giving Tony Pollard run here.
Michael Gallup FD 6500 DK 5900
Proj Points FD - 14.02 DK - 16.9
Cedrick Wilson FD 5600 DK 3500
Proj Points FD - 9.97 DK - 12.08
The Cowboys could be without Lamb and Cooper in this one which should make Gallup a chalk play at wide receiver on this slate. He led the team with 10 targets in Week 11 though finished with only five catches for 44 yards. But with the receiving corps banged up and Gallup at the top of the pecking order in terms of looks, he’s just simply coming too cheap even if the Raiders can try to take away that part of Dallas’s passing attack.
Meanwhile, if Lamb were to sit then it would sure seem like Cedrick Wilson would be the main beneficiary. In Week 11, Wilson played 63% of the snaps and was third on the team with seven targets. He’s been solid over the last four weeks in a secondary role, seeing 22 total targets for 190 total yards. He is coming way too cheap on DraftKings especially if he’s going to be the WR2 for this team.
Stefon Diggs FD 8300 DK 7900
Proj Points FD - 16.55 DK - 20.2
In terms of top-tier wide receivers, no one else on this slate is in Diggs’s class even if the production has been a bit up and down this season. He’s seen double-digit targets five times this season, but also has seven or fewer targets three times. When it’s good, it’s very good for Diggs but when it isn’t he can burn you at this price. That being said, he has five touchdowns in the last five games and is clearly the top overall option on this slate. The Saints have a good defense though are worse against the pass this season. I think we might have enough savings elsewhere to just knuckle up and spend for
Nick Vannett FD 4200 DK 2500
Proj Points FD - 7.81 DK - 9.36
The Saints lost Adam Trautman for this game and maybe for the future and now we should see some more Nick Vannett in the mix. New Orleans could, for sure, give Juwan Johnson run here as well, but Vannett was next man up in Week 11 playing 28% of the snaps. This is a speculative play for sure, but the position isn’t great so getting out of it as cheap as possible should be the way to go.
TJ Hockenson has eight or more targets in four of the last five games. Unfortunately, that fifth game only saw him get one target. But in terms of floor, he is probably the best tight end option on the slate and should be marginally improved with Goff returning under center.
Chicago Bears FD 5000 DK 3000
Proj Points FD - 8.13 DK - 8.13
The Bears obviously have the best matchup on the slate here facing off against the Lions who have the third-worst offense in the league this season. Detroit has been sacked 27 times on the season, the seventh-most in the league but have only given it away a league-average amount. Still, Chicago is in the best spot though you will have to pay for it on FanDuel at least where they are the most expensive DST. They are third-highest on DraftKings making them a rather easy call over there.
Strongly consider the Dallas Cowboys who get a decent home matchup against the Raiders and own the leagues 4th-best defense on the season.