Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 11/23/21
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There are questions about some of the superstars on this slate with it too early to tell what happens with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic respectively. But we already know that Lebron James is going to sit out his one-game suspension following the altercation with Isaiah Stewart on Sunday. That should leave Westbrook with a ton of opportunity in this game. He has a full-season usage rate of 28%, but it jumps to 31% when Lebron has been off the court this season. He isn’t efficient at all and the turnovers are still a problem, but the floor is still very high because he’s able to dial it up in nearly every other part of the box score. The price is down a little bit from the peak and I think he is a strong cash play here.
Cory Jospeh has never been all that robust of a fantasy contributor even when given outsized opportunity in the past, so we need to tread a little carefully here even when projecting him for major minutes. The run should be there with Killian Hayes set to sit out this game and CoJo is coming off 39 minutes in the start against the Lakers. He needed every minute, finishing with five points, seven assists, and four rebounds. Because he’s so cheap I’m willing to take the risk again on the short slate, though there is some chance we are better off with Frank Jackson (FD 3800 DK 4000) off the bench.
Jalen Brunson FD - $7200 DK - $7300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.63 DK - 41.97
This might end up being a tough spot with Brunson and whether we should roster him in cash. Luka Doncic is currently questionable for this game and his return would spell the end of Brunson being still a value at these prices. That game doesn’t start until three hours after lineups lock meaning it might be tough to pivot on later news. But over the last three with Luka out, Brunson has averaged 19 points, nine assists, and four rebounds while running 36 minutes per. Even with the price climbing a couple of thousand over the short term, he is still a cash game play if Luka is sitting. The question is whether we can risk not knowing until game time.
Will Barton FD - $6500 DK - $7400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.95 DK - 40.85
Barton, somewhat like Brunson, is dependent on whether the team’s superstar (in this case Jokic) plays or sits. Unlike Brunson, he doesn’t take quite the hit to the stats if Jokic is in there and I think we can run him in cash pretty safely, especially on FanDuel where the price is too cheap. Over Barton’s last six games, ever since Michael Porter went down, he’s averaged 19 points, six rebounds, and four assists on close to 15 shots. The Nuggets need his scoring and defensive versatility right now. I think he’s safe no matter whether Jokic plays or not.
Talen Horton-Tucker FD - $6000 DK - $5900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.92 DK - 35.43
Talen Horton-tucker was excellent after coming back from injury and before Lebron James returned from an injury of his own. The sample size wasn’t huge, but it was enough. In back-to-back games he ran 37 and 39 minutes respectively, putting up 18 and 19 shots each and averaging 27 points. He also added 18 total rebounds and five assists. Sure, they were both losses, but for our purposes, who cares? I think he gets similar run here against the Knicks with Lebron suspended and that’s going to be enough to pay off these prices on both sites.
Saddiq Bey FD - $5700 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.89 DK - 31.45
The Pistons can be a bit of a risk on a night-to-night basis and this game against Miami isn’t a great matchup for sure. But I do think Bey is a little too cheap on FanDuel and is one of the “safer” Pistons in terms of minutes. In a close game (which might be asking a lot) Bey will play minutes in the mid-30s. And he’s good for about 14 shots per game. Small forward isn’t the most robust position on this slate meaning we might need to get a little weird. Bey has a high enough floor at his FanDuel price.
Power Forward/ Center
Anthony Davis FD - $10500 DK - $10900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 52.46 DK - 53.3
I think almost no matter what, we are going to be spending up at this power forward/ center slot on both sites. The options at the upper end of the salary tier are just too good. While Davis has been a bit hit or miss this season, this is just too good of an opportunity with Lebron out. Now, you want to make the case that Lebron actually helps AD? I can hear that. It seems like the case on offense. But the rebounding numbers are still so strong and the defensive stats are elite for Davis this season. He’s expensive so we will need some cheaper plays, but I think Davis has just too high of a floor in this game.
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $8800 DK - $8500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 46.32 DK - 48.84
Like Brunson, the value for Porzingis does hinge on the status of Luka Doncic in this game. Zinger has a 30% usage rate this season with Doncic off the court and has been particularly effective over the last three games with Luka out. In that stretch, Kristaps is putting up 23 points and nine rebounds, while also piling on five blocks on that stretch. The price is up there to the point that he becomes a bit risky if Luka is back, but not overwhelmingly so. I think on DraftKings we can run him no matter what considering the full-season stats still back him up as a value.
Julius Randle FD - $8400 DK - $10000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 42.17 DK - 46.93
He’s probably too expensive on DraftKings at $10K, but the price does look a little too low on FanDuel. He’s got a great matchup against the Lakers who are running the fastest pace in the league while also playing at a below-average defensive efficiency. LA is just a good DFS matchup and even better without Lebron. Randle hasn’t been running the same minutes as last season which has dropped the scoring some. But this is still a guy averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game.
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