Weekly Fantasy Football Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 16 - Main Slate
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The Eagles are facing off against the Giants this week and there is a lot to like about Jalen Hurts in this matchup. For starters, grabbing one of the better running quarterbacks in the game is always solid for keeping the fantasy-scoring floor very high. His 733 rushing yards on the season ranks him only behind Lamar Jackson at the quarterback position. Sure, the 14:9 TD:INT rate isn’t amazing, but that isn’t why you are rostering Hurts here. He has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season which is tied for fourth, overall, in the league behind only Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, and Joe Mixon. The Giants are terrible against the run though it’s worth noting that they were able to stymie Hurts some just a couple of weeks ago, forcing three interceptions. No matter, I think going back to the well is fine here in cash.
I think we can go up to a more expensive price point at the quarterback position on the main slate because of the savings we are going to get at running back. Herbert is having a near-identical season to his breakout rookie campaign and has thrown 32 touchdowns on a 66% completion percentage. A solid game would put him right at the same yardage last season. He faces off against a Houston team that does rank better against the pass than the run, but I still don’t think we are all that worried about it in this scenario. I do prefer Hurts for just a little cheaper but Herbert makes a strong play here.
Jones is likely to be a chalk play this week with the news that Leonard Fournette had gone on IR. Last week, after Lenny went down, Jones played 22 snaps and touched the ball on 10 of them with eight carries and two targets. I do think that unlike Fournette, he will cede some of the passing downs to Ke'Shawn Vaughn, but in general, Jones should start the game out as the Bucs’ lead back. Tampa Bay is -10 road favorites against the Panthers who rank 10th overall on defense, but are much worse against the run at 24th. With the Bucs likely leading this game I think we can easily make this play and he’s going to be a popular one.
Alexander Mattison FD 5500 DK 6800
Proj Points FD - 15.05 DK - 16.53
Speaking of chalk plays, with word that Dalvin Cook has entered the Covid protocols, it looks like we are going to get a healthy dosage of Mattison in this one against the Rams. We’ve seen this happen before this season with Mattison taking over the lead-back role a few times. Three times he’s carried the ball over 20 times, averaging 30 touches (carries+targets) in those opportunities. By all accounts, we should see a similar situation in this game against the Rams. Now, this defensive matchup is bad against an LA team that ranks 6th in DVOA this season. But because the price is so low, we are still getting a value because the price didn’t adjust on the opportunity.
Justin Jackson FD 5400 DK 4200
Proj Points FD - 13.72 DK - 14.63
Austin Ekeler is out in Covid protocols and won’t be able to play in this game against the Texans. That should open up plenty of opportunity for Justin Jackson who is likely to also be a chalk play on the slate. In Ekeler’s absence last week when the latter got hurt, Jackson played 54% of the snaps and totaled 86 yards on 13 carries. It’s likely he sees solid usage in this game against the lowly Texans who rank 17th in defensive DVOA but just 27th against the rush. He is likely to be yet another very popular play on this slate with these top three running backs garnering a ton of ownership.
Miles Sanders FD 6400 DK 5600
Proj Points FD - 15.77 DK - 16.51
Sanders isn’t as strong a play as the two guys above, but I still think there is a strong case to play him in cash. He spiked 18 carries in Week 15 on a 50% snap share. I don’t love the latter because he’s clearly not an every-down back for the Eagles, but I do like the part where he touched the ball 20 times on his 35 snaps. He finished with 146 total yards in that game. The Eagles enter this game as -10 home favorite against the Giants who rank 28th against the rush this season. The price on Sanders is in the right tier for his usage and I think there is at least enough of a floor to make him a safer play.
Cooper Kupp FD 9800 DK 9100
Proj Points FD - 22.66 DK - 27.68
It is setting up to be a very chalky week for DFS on the main slate with Kupp likely to be another very popular play. And it’s for good reason. With there some cheaper options on the running back side of things it won’t be any issue at all to pay up for Kupp in this spot. He’s having a record-breaking season and is the top overall scorer on DraftKings, with 37 more DK points than the next-closest guy (Jonathan Taylor). He has 20 more targets than the number two wide receiver and is just so clearly the top option that it almost goes without saying.
Keenan Allen FD 7700 DK 7700
Proj Points FD - 18.43 DK - 22.72
We mentioned Justin Jackson as a play because of the loss of Austin Ekeler, and that’s all well and good for the ground game. But don’t forget that Ekeler also averaged more than 5.5 targets in the passing game as well. I don’t think they all go to Allen 1:1, but there could be a slight uptick in looks with the lead RB out. Allen ranks sixth in the league in targets with 134 though it’s worth mentioning that he played one fewer game than the top three guys on the list. His 10.3 targets per game rank him fifth overall on the season. This represents a good matchup and I think the price is such that it won’t be tough to fit both Kupp and Allen into lineups considering the savings you are getting at running back.
Antonio Brown FD 7000 DK 4900
Proj Points FD - 14.71 DK - 17.79
Chris Godwin has been lost for the season and Mike Evans is looking very questionable for this game. Brown hasn’t played since the middle of October, but this guy was averaging almost 8.5 targets per game during the early part of the season when the Bucs were mostly healthy. Now, with the WR corps banged up, he could be stepping right back into a huge role in the offense. We know that Brady is comfortable throwing his way and, by all accounts, Brown is fully healthy now. Double-digit targets aren’t out of the question in this game.
Rob Gronkowski FD 6700 DK 6200
Proj Points FD - 12.81 DK - 15.24
Over the last four weeks, Gronkowski ranks third overall in tight end targets behind only Mark Andrews and George Kittle. Overall, he ranks sixth in tight touchdowns despite playing fewer games than everyone above him on the list. The Panthers have been a good pass defense this season, but it sure seems like Gronk could be in for even more work this week with Godwin out and Evans potentially banged up.
Dallas Goedert FD 5900 DK 5100
Proj Points FD - 11.45 DK - 13.97
Goedert is coming off back-to-back monster games with over 100 yards in each. Granted, those came with different quarterbacks, but it’s also a good sign for his usage. I like the price on both sites against a Giants who have allowed the fourth-most targets to tight ends this season. It’s a great spot all things considered and I think he could see decent ownership on this slate. There are a couple of ways to go at the position, but Goedert appears safe because of the targets and the matchup.
Strongly consider Cole Kmet
Defense/ Special Teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers FD 4300 DK 3200
Proj Points FD - 9.04 DK - 9.04
The Bucs and their 7th-ranked defense will take on the Panthers this week. With Cam Newton as the quarterback over the last four weeks, the Panthers haven’t topped 21 points in a game and have lost all four games. He’s completed only 55% of his passes and basically looks about one foot out of the league at this point. The Bucs rank 9th in sacks this season and should be able to put it on the Panthers.
Strongly consider the Seattle Seahawks facing off against the Chicago Bears.