Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 1/12/21
After a short slate on Tuesday, we're back to a full nine-game card here. There are some fascinating matchups out there, and some great value plays for DFS. I picked the players for this article quicker than usual, which is probably a good sign. Some of them are obvious, but others are fantastic values that are flying under the radar. With that in mind, let's kick things off with the point guards!
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Lowry is not getting the credit he deserves! This guy has come from Toronto late in his career and is playing just as well in a Miami uniform. Lowry is averaging 35 DraftKings points per game for the season, providing 30-plus nearly every single night. The reason we love him here is the situation in Miami, with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Gabe Vincent all expected to miss this game. That means Kyle should run the show, which is apparent when you see his 37-point average in the games that Bam and Butler have missed this season. He's rolling right now, too, scoring at least 38 DK points in seven of his last 10 games. That should be easy to duplicate here, with the Hawks ranked 25th in points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency.
The Beal splits for Dinwiddie are downright nuts. Dinwiddie plays at a $10K level when Beal is out of the lineup. In fact, The former CU standout has at least 29 DraftKings points in all six games that Beal has missed, averaging 49.2 DK points per game. Where it's obvious is in his usage, leading the club with a 32 percent usage rate in these situations. All of that means that Dinwiddie is about $2,000 too cheap on both sites, and we haven't even discussed this matchup. The Magic rank 25th in defensive efficiency and 24th in points allowed. That's on full display when you see Spencer's 38-point average in his two matchups with Orlando.
De'Aaron Fox is averaging 43 fantasy points per game in three meetings with the Lakers this season, and it's a perfect recipe since they play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. Don't forget about Dejounte Murray facing the worst defense in basketball, too!
Man, this FanDuel price is getting crazy! LaVine has definitely taken a step back with DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Nikola Vucevic all in the picture, but he should never be $7,200 on either site! We say that because he's still averaging over 40 fantasy points per game. That alone makes him a heck of a value, especially with Zach scoring at least 27 DK points in all but one game this season. That's an incredible floor from someone in this price range, and you better believe he'll be motivated against a star-studded Brooklyn team. In their two matchups this season, LaVine is averaging over 47 fantasy points per game.
Malik Monk FD - $5500 DK - $6200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.6 DK - 29.77
Monk wasn't drawing much interest in the offseason because of his lackluster play in Charlotte, but he's proving a lot of those GMs wrong with his recent play. He's probably been the Lakers second-best player since Anthony Davis went down, scoring at least 23 DraftKings points in eight straight games. He's also averaging 32 fantasy points per game across 34 minutes a night in that span. All of that makes him a massive value in this $6K price range, particularly against a putrid defense like the Kings. In fact, Sacramento sits 28th in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency. In their three matchups this season, Monk maintains a 37-point average across 37 minutes a night.
Cole Anthony is just $7,400 on both sites and has played at an $8K level for most of the season.
LeBron James FD - $11300 DK - $11700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 59.2 DK - 59.84
If you want to fade King James, go for it! That's a silly idea because this dude is in one of the best stretches of his career right now. Over his last 11 games played, LeBron is averaging 34.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. That equates to a 63-point average, scoring at least 47 fantasy points in all of those. The simple fact is, he's taking over this offense in the absence of AD and should continue to post numbers like these for as long as he's healthy. We already talked about how good of a matchup Sacramento is, with LeBron averaging 52 DK points per game in their two meetings this year.
Lonnie Walker IV FD - $4800 DK - $4600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.1 DK - 29.17
The Spurs are one of many teams dealing with the COVID craziness, and Walker has benefited from all of these absences. San Antonio is missing Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson, and Derrick White. Fortunately for Walker, all of those guys play a similar position, and it's left Lonnie with one of the most prominent roles of his career. In fact, Walker has played 27 minutes in back-to-back games while taking at least 19 shots in both of them. That makes him worth it even if he's not knocking them down, but he's also generating a 33-point average in that span as well. Not to mention, he faces a Houston club that ranks dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Harrison Barnes is barely cracking $5K on both sites and should reach 5X value against a bad Lakers defense.
Robert Williams III FD - $7600 DK - $7300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.19 DK - 28.27
We've been waiting for The Time Lord to live up to his monicker all season, and it looks like we're finally getting what we want! The big man has taken over Al Horford as the go-to big man in Boston, scoring at least 25 DraftKings points in 10 straight games. His upside has been absurd, too, scoring 54-plus in two of those while providing a 42-point average in that span. That's the best stretch of his career, and it's why his price tag has crept above $7K. One of those gems came against this struggling Indiana team, with Rob-Will dropping 45 DK points in yet another masterpiece.
Christian Wood FD - $7000 DK - $6900
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 38.25 DK - 40.37
Wood has struggled a bit for his standards, but it's weird to see him creep below $7,000. This guy has proven to be a $9K player in the past, and his 37-point average is certainly nothing to scoff at. Injuries and disciplinary issues have hurt that average, too, because it should be closer to 40. If he reached 40 fantasy points at this price, you've stumbled into one of the values of the day. The matchup with San Antonio might be the best part of this play, though, with the Spurs surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Both of these clubs are Top-5 in pace as well, adding more value to Wood's elite athleticism.
Matisse Thybulle has been playing over 30 minutes a game for two weeks now and could get a handful of steals/blocks against the fastest pace team in the NBA.
Hassan Whiteside FD - $7000 DK - $6200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 37.58 DK - 37.64
If you don't already know, Whiteside is a DFS darling when given the opportunity. He's not the best real-life basketball player, but this guy can absolutely stuff a stat sheet. He was actually a $9K player in his time with the Trail Blazers, and he's showing that sort of ability in a limited role this season. Hassan is averaging over 20 DK points per game across just 16 minutes a night. That's big news since he's looking at a 30-35 minutes role in the absence of Rudy Gobert, dropping 51 fantasy points across 34 minutes in Utah's most recent outing. The Jazz will need him to play big minutes, too, opposing the largest frontline in the NBA.
Onyeka Okongwu FD - $3900 DK - $3900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.62 DK - 25.47
With Clint Capela expected to sit here, Onyeka should get another start at center in Atlanta. While he scored just 22 fantasy points in the most recent game, OO played 38 minutes! Any center flirting with 40 minutes sitting below $4K is impossible to avoid, especially since Okongwu is averaging 20 DK points per game across 22 minutes a night for the season. That means 30-40 fantasy points are definitely in play with this sort of workload, and it's not like Miami is a concerning matchup with Bam Adebayo sidelined. All you need is 20-25 DK points for OO to reach value at this price, and that seems like a borderline guarantee.
Joel Embiid has been crushing recently and should roll against a 29th-ranked Hornets defense.