Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Waste Management Phoenix Open
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Par 71 - 7,261 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five Winners
- 2021 - Brooks Koepka(-19)
- 2020 - Webb Simpson(-17)
- 2019 - Rickie Fowler(-17)
- 2018 - Gary Woodland(-18)
- 2017 - Hideki Matsuyama(-17)
The 2021-22 season has been underway since the fall but the real party starts this week as the PGA Tour heads to Phoenix and TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. As it usually does, this event has drawn another strong field which includes World #1 Jon Rahm and six of the World's Top 10 golfers.
TPC Scottsdale is an average length(7,261 yards) Par 71 set in the Arizona desert which comes into play almost every hole with native areas lurking not far from the fairways. While hitting the fairway is always important in giving yourself consistent shots at hitting greens and making birdies, it is the approach shot that has the highest correlation in my research and leads the way in my ball striking model. Par 4 scoring is also about double that of par 5 scoring as there is only three Par 5's on this course. Overall, there are always different ways to win a golf tournament and it comes down to who checks the most boxes mixed with a little luck.
Let's get into the picks.
Justin Thomas/Jon Rahm
They are in a tier of their own this week checking every box and while I will exposure to both, I am slightly leaning JT who could give us some leverage this week in terms of ownership. Neither have won here in 13 combined appearances but both have excellent course history. Rahm has not only made the cut all six times but he has also not finished worse than T16 while JT has made five of seven cuts here at TPC Scottsdale but after missing the cut in 2016 and 2017 he has tallied four straight finishes of T17 or better with two T3's in there. Both have been solid to start the season in terms of form and both are elite in the stats model. If playing single entry, I do lean JT for the ownership leverage but in my 20-max builds I will be about 60/40 JT/Rahm this week.
After starting your lineup with either Rahm or Thomas, you then have to decide whether you are going full stars and scrubs or more balanced. In my stars and scrubs, I like turning to Scheffler who has a positive odds to price differential on both sites sitting at the bottom of the top tier. After missing the cut here in 2020, he bounced back in a big way last season finishing T7 while ranking Top 10 in both ball striking and putting. His season started out with a missed cut at the Shriners but he has followed that up with six straight made cuts including two Top 5's(Mayakoba, Houston Open) and back-to-back Top 25's coming into the week. While he isn't really elite in any stats category he is solid across the board rankings 10th in my stats model. The floor is as high as anyone's and he has winning upside so I will have exposure in all formats.
Whether you are playing the top of the board or plan on going more balanced, Russell Henley fits the mold. While his course history is a bit up and down he does have three Top 30 finishes here in the last five years and the best news is that he comes in with better form than ever before. He has not only made all seven cuts to start the season but has finished Top 25 in six of them with two Top 10's and a runner-up at the Sony Open. He pops off the page in both my long-term and short-term stats models and is one of my top PTS/$ plays in all formats.
As we move down the board to look for value, the first player that jumps off the page is Denny McCarthy who comes in with some elite form. After a slow start to the fall season where he missed two of his first three cuts, he has come on strong making seven straight and has finished Top 15 in five of his last six. One thing that worries me a bit is that he has yet to put together a solid four rounds of ball striking but has more than made up for it with his elite around the green and putting game. I am not concerned about the lack of success here at TPC Scottsdale given the elite form and value price. Lock and load in all formats.