Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 2/9/21
This has been the craziest NBA DFS season I've ever seen, and the chaos keeps coming. We had two blockbuster trades on Tuesday, and there's undoubtedly going to be more over the next 48 hours. That can make things tough on us, but it also opens up a ton of value. We're not exactly sure what these rotations will look like, but we'll do our best to project them out. With that in mind, let's kick things off with some cheap points guards.
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De'Aaron Fox just made his return to action on Tuesday after a three-week absence, and we believe he's in line to sit the second half of a B2B set here. That alone would make Mitchell a great option, but trading Tyrese Haliburton on Tuesday makes Davion an elite play no matter what. That means he should be guaranteed 30 minutes, averaging 26 DraftKings points per game in the 14 outings he's played at least 30 minutes. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$6K player, especially with Mitchell looking at an expanded workload here. Not to mention, Minnesota ranks 19th in points allowed while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing SGs.
It's sad what's happened to this Chicago backcourt. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are both out with long-term injures, while Ayo Dosumnu suffered a concussion on Monday. That leaves White as one of the only point guards left, guaranteeing him 35-40 minutes. He's averaging 31 DK points per game in the 14 games he's played at least 29 minutes, doing most of that damage with at least one of those guys in the lineup. His price has steadily been dropping along with his role, but he should be closer to $7K here with so many backcourt players out. We adore the matchup with Charlotte, too, with the Hornets ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed.
Josh Giddey has been stepping up in the absence of SGA and could be a good option around $7K.
We just mentioned how many players Chicago is missing, and it's going to force DeRozan into an even more prominent role than he's already been playing. We're talking about a guy who's guaranteed for 20 shots and 35 minutes, doing that in all but a handful of games this season. That has led to DD scoring at least 47 fantasy points in 11 straight games! That's an incredible floor, and it's earned him a start at this year's All-Star game. We just discussed how bad of a defense Charlotte has, which was on full display when DeRozan had 28 points, five rebounds, and six assists in their one matchup earlier this season.
Terry Rozier FD - $6400 DK - $6900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 35.31 DK - 36.48
Rozier is one of the streakiest players in the NBA, and we always want to ride him when he's rolling. That's the case now, with Scary Terry scoring at least 36 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He's actually averaging that exact same total over his previous 23 games played, scoring at least 41 DK points in 11 of those. We believe he's in line for one of those gems here, with Rozier taking on more usage in the absence of Gordon Hayward. Terry had one of his best games of the season against Chicago, too, tallying 31 points and four assists against them back in November.
We also like Zach LaVine around $9K on both sites with so many Chicago guards missing.
Kelly Oubre Jr. FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.37 DK - 34.35
We just talked about how Hayward is out for the Hornets, which means Kelly should be in for a big night. If you look at the last four games that Hayward has missed, Oubre is averaging 31 DK points per game across 33 minutes a night. More importantly, he's taking about 15 shots a game, which is when we feel most confident in this volume shooter. He's been crushing it recently, too, averaging 37 DraftKings points per game across his last five fixtures. The Bulls have one of the worst defenses in the NBA right now as well, which we love since Oubre had 32 DK points in this matchup earlier this season.
CJ Elleby FD - $3900 DK - $4400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.14 DK - 23.26
Someone in Portland needs to play some basketball! Having Damian Lillard injured is one thing, but trading Robert Covington, Norman Powell, and C.J. McCollum have left this roster in shambles. That means CJ is one of the only guys left, and it should put him in line for 35 minutes and double-digit shots. The 21-year-old has played at least 27 minutes three times this season, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in those outings. Most of those have come recently, and it looks like he's going to be one of the focal points of this offense with so many players missing. We also don't mind that Los Angeles ranks 27th in points allowed and third in pace.
Justise Winslow could be a good punt play for this shorthanded Portland team as well.
Pascal Siakam FD - $10000 DK - $9400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 44.67 DK - 44.78
Toronto is quietly one of the hottest teams in the NBA, and Siakam is a major reason why. He's actually been one of the most consistent players in fantasy, scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in 29 straight games. That's a genuinely ridiculous floor, especially since Sia is averaging 48 fantasy points per game in that stretch. The monster role is a major reason why, with Pascal playing 40 minutes a night in that span. That makes him one of the easiest plays on any slate, particularly with Oklahoma City surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Darius Bazley FD - $6000 DK - $5600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.83 DK - 31.19
Most people assume that injury correlations are a position-to-position thing, but it's different here for OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's injury has opened up the most significant role of Bazley's career! That has led to Darius playing at least 36 minutes in four straight fixtures, which happen to be his season-high totals. He's also scored at least 26 fantasy points in six consecutive outings, doing that damage despite some terrible shooting. Just imagine how good this guy could be if he has a sharpshooting night, particularly with his $6K price tag! Toronto is not a scary matchup either, with Baze dropping 28 DK points in their one meeting earlier this season.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9900 DK - $9700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 48.03 DK - 50.44
Big KAT is in a heck of a spot here. Let's kick things off by talking about this matchup. Sacramemento sits 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. They were bad when their roster was at full health, and it's hard to imagine how poor their frontcourt will be here with Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley missing. That's scary with how consistent Towns has been, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in 28 of his last 29 games. That makes it hard to believe that KAT is still below $10K, especially since he's flirting with a 50-point average in that stretch!
Evan Mobley FD - $7000 DK - $6800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 35.63 DK - 34.76
Cleveland could be shorthanded here, likely playing without Lauri Markkanen, Darius Garland, and Caris LeVert. That leaves Mobley with tons of responsibilities, but the rookie has been ridiculous in this role all season. The ROY frontrunner is averaging 33.2 DK points per game, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in 17 of his last 21 games. That total should be simple to reach against San Antonio, with the Spurs ranked fifth in pace and 25th in total defense. They also don't have a traditional power forward, and it's going to be a fantastic matchup for Mobley with Jarrett Allen dealing with Jakob Poeltl and Mobley being covered by an undersized Keldon Johnson.
Mason Plumlee has averaged 30 DK points per game for three weeks and remains way too cheap below $6K.