Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Genesis Invitational
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Riviera Country Club
Par 71 - 7,322 Yards
Greens - Poa
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five Winners
- 2021 - Max Homa(-12)
- 2020 - Adam Scott(-11)
- 2019 - JB Holmes(-14)
- 2018 - Bubba Watson(-12)
- 2017 - Dustin Johnson(-17)
It was one hell of a sweat last week, but I grabbed a second outright of the season and a nice return in DFS thanks to Scottie Scheffler's win over Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. The only thing that could have made it better was being there to see not only the win but the chaos of raining beer cans on Hole #16 with a hole in one on both Saturday(Sam Ryder) and Sunday(Carlos Ortiz) as well as the crazy celebrations by Joel Dahmen and Harry Higgs after birdie putts. Overall, another tremendous WM Phoenix Open.
This week the players face a much harder test as an elite field, which includes each of the OWGR Top 10, heads to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. Riviera has rated as a Top 10 hardest scoring courses in three of the last four years and that includes the Majors! The course is demanding off the tee(average around 51% fairways hit last 5 years) and just as demanding on approach(average 58% GIR last 5 years) despite average-sized greens. On the greens, the golfers will once again see firm and fast poa greens.
My stats model on the sheet this week is heavily geared towards form and players with a solid tee to green game. I don't think hitting the fairway is essential(Top 10 finishers last year averaged under 50%) but if targeting a less than accurate driver just have a closer look at rough proximity or good drive %. This usually goes hand in hand with the longer hitters as they weight the distance gain more than having to hit out fo the rough. For the shorter hitters in the field that you have targeted, make sure to key in on the long iron proximity ranges.
For cash games, where we are looking for a 6/6 in terms of made cuts, I like upping weight on SG: Around the Green with a sprinkle of Sand Save % as getting up and down for par will be huge this week. For GPP builds, I am once again playing 20-max and looking to put together two cores of 3-4 players and build 6-8 lineups around them. Hit me up in DM to learn more about my process.
With all that said, let's get into the picks.
Top Tier Targets
I am finally jumping off the top-priced plays this week, for the article at least(Rahm/Cantlay still in my GPP rankings). I will be playing with 20-max builds once again and much prefer having a large portion of those being balanced builds. These strong fields suppress the price of certain players and Xander is one of them this week as he comes in under $10K on DraftKings. He returns to Riviera with a Top 25 finish in all four trips and is coming off a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open after leading the field gaining 13.1 strokes Tee to Green. Like Cantlay, he is also an elite putter overall(28th in my model) and even better on Poa(20th). All things considered, he is my favorite PTS/$ play in the top tier and I will have exposure in all formats.
If you are looking for elite ball-striking, look no further as Zalatoris ranks 6th in this field in SG: Ball Striking since the start of last season. He checks more than just one box, however, as he comes in with elite form as well finishing T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T6 at the American Express where he gained a combined 18.1 strokes tee to green. To top it off, he returns Riviera after a very impressive T15 last year where he shot in the 60's in three of four rounds. The best part here is that he comes at a season-low price on DraftKings making him easily one of my top PTS/$ fantasy plays and I will also be betting him Top 10 and to win this week.
World Golf Ranking (#25)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Fitzpatrick was my first bet this week as he opened at +4900 on Coolbet while sitting mid +3000's on most other books. I love him for fantasy in this mid-range of pricing on both sites, as well, as he almost checks every box. Like Zalatoris, he comes with a season-low price tag, has played here once with an impressive finish(T5 last year), and comes in with back-to-back Top 10's when looking at form. Digging deeper and looking at my difficult scoring model on Fantasy National, Fitzpatrick is ranked 9th in this field in SG: Tee to Green. Lock and load in all formats!
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Rory comes in fourth in the article but only because of price and I feel Schauffele is much safer but is high up in my balanced build model this week. He hasn't played on the PGA Tour since winning the CJ Cup back in October but is coming off a nice tune-up across the pond finishing T12 at the Abu Dhabi Championship and T3 at the Dubai Desert Classic and hit just under 70% GIR in those two events. While he missed the cut here at Riviera last year he had back-to-back Top 5's in 2020 and 2019 and two other T20 finishes in 2016 and 2018. Bottom line is the #5 player in the world is 7th and 8th in pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and that puts him in elite class in terms of PTS/$ upside. I don't think we need to force him in cash games but he is a staple in my GPP builds this week.
World Golf Ranking (#151)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Hadwin is having a very solid start to the season as he comes in having made eight of 10 cuts and has finished T26 or better in three of his last four since the calendar flipped to 2022. That success is led by his above-average iron game as he ranks 30th(in this field) in SG: Approach and 26th/23rd in long iron Proximity. HE is also excellent around the greens and a plus Poa putter which has helped him to some very solid course history here at Riviera as he has finished T26 or better in five of seven trips with a career-best T6 in 2018. At these prices, he has a high floor and tons of upside and I will have exposure in all formats and will be betting him Top 20.
World Golf Ranking (#95)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
It would be hard to ask for much more than what Rai provides at these prices. Since missing three cuts in a row to start the season, he has made the cut in seven of his last eight and shown some big upside with four Top 20's and a career-best T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago. It all lines up statistically as well as he ranks 2sst(in this elite field) in SG: Tee to Green, 16th in driving accuracy, 14th in Proximity from 175-200 yards, and 31st in Bogey Avoidance. That combination is a great recipe for success here at Riviera. At these prices, he is a shoe-in for the stars & scrubs GPP builds.