Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Saturday 3/12/22
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Point Guard/Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8100 DK - $8600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 44.25 DK - 47.9
The Jazz blew a double-digit lead on Friday to the Spurs, marking a pretty bad loss for the team. And now they are on the back-to-back likely wanting to take this one from the Kings. They get the best matchup of the slate here with Sacramento ranking 28th in defensive efficiency this season while running the 6th-fastest pace. Mitchell should be a full go here on the b2b and has seen the price tick down some in the short term. I think his floor is plenty high on both sites considering the matchup and there’s some chance we could see Mike Conley’s minutes dialed back some considering he ran 31 on Friday evening.
Dejounte Murray FD - $10800 DK - $10800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 52.86 DK - 55.57
He’s having such a breakout season and has been so consistent over the course of this year that we don’t really even bat an eye when seeing that Murray is pushing up against $11K on both sites. It’s more than warranted considering he’s putting up 21 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds per game along with 2.4 blocks+steals. Simply put, he’s one of the very best fantasy guys in the league right now. And he’s facing off against a Pacers team tied for 26th overall in defense who will also be missing Malcolm Brogdon. The Spurs are -6 home favorites and I love paying up for Murray here. The one thing to watch out for here is that San Antonio is on the second half of the back-to-back.
Brandon Williams FD - $4900 DK - $6200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.03 DK - 32.51
The Blazers stink and are fully in the tank. We know this and they’ve been almost unapologetic about it, which I can basically respect. Williams will get the start at point guard again considering both Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons are on the shelf and the price hasn’t quite gotten there on FanDuel. While there have been some blowouts for this team recently, this doesn’t project to be the case against the undermanned Wizards. Williams, when he ran full minutes two games ago put up 27 points and eight rebounds. He’s averaging 17 points, five rebounds, 1.3 assists, and some steals over the last four. If the game stays on the closer side the minutes should be there for the point guard.
Klay Thompson FD - $6000 DK - $7000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 35 DK - 38.01
The Warriors are starting to push Klay’s minutes a bit more now which is a good sign for his fantasy production. I do think the DraftKings price is a bit high here, but he’s tough to fade on FanDuel at $6000. He’s scored 18 and 20 points respectively over the last two games taking 20 or more shots in each. So the usage is more than there. He’s still struggling a bit from beyond the arc, knocking down threes at only a 23% clip over the last four. This matchup against the Bucks, in theory, is a tougher one though their defense hasn’t been lights out this season. If we see even moderate regression on the shooting for Klay then these prices will look way low.
Josh Hart FD - $5900 DK - $7900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.7 DK - 34.68
It’s tempting to play Hart here considering the context, but he hasn’t exactly been amazing with the Blazers mostly sucking in the last couple of games as they try to lose on purpose. He’s scored in the single digits in those ones and the fantasy lines have been pretty grizzly. It could be that he relies too much on having other ball creators in the offense and Portland simply doesn’t have that in their current iteration. Again, there is a risk here and the DraftKings price is totally out of bounds. You don’t need to consider him at all over there. But FanDuel does make you think considering the amount of run he could get in a closer game if it stays that way.
Along these lines, I think you can consider CJ Elleby (FD 3700 DK 4800) on FanDuel.
Danuel House Jr. FD - $3500 DK - $3400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 20.12 DK - 21.09
This is definitely a position we can run at a cheaper price point for this slate considering there are more than enough payoffs at guard and with the bigs. House got into the starting lineup for the Jazz on Friday with Bojan Bogdanovic injured. The former played well enough for a punt-priced dude, scoring 22.7 FanDuel points. We can take that production with him sitting at the lower end of the price tier, coming at almost the minimums on both sites. He doesn’t have tremendous upside, but the floor is there in this role and I like the flexibility he provides at other slots in the lineup.
If Josh Richardson (FD 3700 DK 3600) is back in the starting lineup for the Spurs then he for sure would be cash game viable once again.
Power Forward/ Center
Evan Mobley FD - $8800 DK - $7500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.1 DK - 42.19
The Cavs are still without Jarrett Allen and that’s going to be the case for the foreseeable future. That’s moved Mobley to center for this squad and from a fantasy perspective, it’s been a total win. The rookie has been amazing over the last three games, putting up 20 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, and almost four blocks+steals in that stretch. The DraftKings price really hasn’t come close to fully adjusting for his new role without Allen in the mix. He makes for a pretty easy play over there all things considered and they will need his size and switch-ability against the Bulls.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7500 DK - $7800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 45.09 DK - 46.3
Gobert hasn’t been lighting the fantasy world on fire lately, but that’s fine with us because it’s only meant a bit of a price drop on both sites. On Saturday he’ll face against a Kings team playing Domantas Sabonis at the five and playing some of the worst defense in all of basketball. The Kings allow their opponents a higher than league average rebounding rate while also getting blocked among the most in the league. That lines up really well for Gobert here who should be in line for a double-double as long as the minutes are there.
Pascal Siakam FD - $8200 DK - $8900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 43.52 DK - 46.09
One advantage Siakam has over almost anyone else in the basketball is the sheer number of minutes Nick Nurse and company are willing to run this guy. Staying on the court is such an advantage and this guy does that about as much as anyone in basketball. He’s played 40+ minutes in four of the last five games (all regulation) which is completely absurd in this day and age. But Toronto has no issue doing it so we shouldn’t be shy about playing him. It takes all the run for him to get there from a fantasy perspective, but again this is a safety play more than anything else.
Consider Isaiah Jackson (FD 5500 DK 5000) on DraftKings. If he can play minutes in the mid-20s he can smash that price.
I can make a case for Domantas Sabonis (FD 8400 DK 9300) on FanDuel even though the matchup is a tough one.