Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 3/14
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We have an interesting slate for high-priced plays on Monday as almost all the players have either tough matchups or potential for blowouts. One player who jumps off the page for me is SGA who gets a terrific matchup as this game has a high total and while the Hornets are seven-point favorites, they rank 23rd in defensive efficiency and 3rd in pace. For SGA, despite a dud vs the T-Wolves last time out, he is averaging over 50 fantasy points per game since returning from a one-month absence due to injury. With Giddey still out a couple of weeks, SGA is a core play for me on this slate in all formats.
This is a game we are going to want some exposure to with its monster total(239) and after resting on Saturday, Murray is both back in the lineup and back under $11K on both sites. He has been a picture of consistency all season long and has been even better in the short term nearly averaging a triple-double(24.5 pts, 8.3 reb, 10.3 ast) and over 50 fantasy points per game since the start of February. The T-Wolves are the 11th ranked defense in terms of efficiency but with this total and projected close game I am not too concerned and it would also be an upgrade if Pat Bev sits out(currently Q). Either way, I will have exposure in all formats.
On the other side of this game, the Hornets are hanging on to a play-in spot in the East and a lot of that can be contributed to the consistency of Terry Rozier. Since the start of February, he is second on the team in usage(25%) behind LaMelo Ball while averaging 22.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.8 stocks per game and has tallied 43 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight games. In a game with one of the highest projected totals on the slate, I want exposure to scary Terry in all formats.
Ayo Dosunmu FD - $5700 DK - $5100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.54 DK - 33.67
The rookie isn't going to win you a GPP as the upside is somewhat limited but that has helped keep the price in check while providing a nice PTS/$ floor high. At these prices, we are looking for about 25 fantasy points and he has hit the total in 10 of his last 12 games while averaging 28.6 DK/29.3 FD points per game. My exposure will go up if Lavine is out once again but either way, I am on Ayo in cash games in a matchup against the Kings who are 28th in defensive efficiency and 7th in pace.
Scottie Barnes FD - $7600 DK - $8000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 43.24 DK - 45.55
Barnes is listed as a SF/PF on both sites but might start getting the PG tag soon as the rookie has really shown his versatility filling in for FVV at times. This was the case on Saturday in Denver where Barnes attempted a season-high 20 shots going for 25 points, eight rebounds, and 10 assists for 58 DK/57.6 FD points. Access to that upside is largely dependent on the status of FVV who is currently questionable but either way, I will have exposure to Barnes at his price in this matchup vs. the Lakers who are 17th in defensive efficiency and 4th in pace.
Josh Hart FD - $6500 DK - $8800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.56 DK - 34.39
With almost everyone out for Portland(Nurkic, Simons, Lillard, Winslow, Little, Bledsoe) we are going to see a lot of Josh Hart tonight. After a downright terrible slump of shooting(6 for 32) over the last three games, Hart exploded against the Wiz on Saturday going 15 for 21 and putting up a 70 burger on DraftKings. He now faces a Hawks team that is 27th in defensive efficiency and 21st in rebounding and while the Hawks are 12-point favorites the minutes should be there for Hart. We don't need to force him on DraftKings where the price skyrocketed but his best value comes on FanDuel in the mid $6K range.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9500 DK - $10200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 50.09 DK - 53.33
Jaden McDaniels FD - $4700 DK - $4900
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 25.58 DK - 27.05
Get ready for some end-to-end action in this one as both teams rank Top 4 in pace which has led to a monster, slate-leading 238.5 Vegas total. On the T-Wolves side of things, it is almost always Towns leading the way for me in terms of exposure due to his consistent PTS/$ returns. Going back to the start of February, he has topped 40 fantasy points in 14 of 19 games, topped 50 fantasy points eight times, all while averaging 47.8 DK/44.1 FD points per game.
While Anthony Edwards is probable for tonight, Vanderbilt has already been ruled out which also points me in the direction of Jaden McDaniels, at least as a floor play for cash games. At his price, we are looking for about 25 fantasy points for cash and he has averaged exactly that over the last six games and could easily hit that again in this prime matchup should he get back up in the 30-minute range.
Darius Bazley FD - $5400 DK - $5300
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 29.42 DK - 30.78
Since re-joining the starting lineup in early February, Bazley has been a consistent PTS/$ option at his current price point averaging 28 fantasy points per game in that time. The Thunder are nine-point dogs in this one but I am not too concerned about it getting out of hand early as the Hornets are 23rd in defensive efficiency and 3rd in pace. This is also a bit of a buy-low considering his price was peaking in the mid to high $6K range not long ago. Fire up Bazley in all formats.