Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/16/22 - All Day
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Urias doesn’t play until the last game on the slate, but that shouldn’t matter for our purposes here. He’s in a tremendous spot against the Reds, and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the slate, sitting at -250 at home. Urias, for sure, had a weird first outing of the season, striking out no batters and lasting only two innings. But I’m not letting that dissuade me too much here going against the Reds, and this is a guy who was a 9.5 K/9 guy last year with an xFIP in the 3’s. The deal is too good to pass up, on DraftKings especially.
I hate the FanDuel price, but the DraftKings salary is definitely in play. He’s the second-biggest implied odds favorite for the win on this slate with the Blue Jays sitting at -233 at home against the Athletics. Ryu isn’t a huge K guy for his career, getting by on limiting the long ball and rarely walking batters over the last few years. This Oakland offense isn’t one you worry about and there’s a chance that Ryu can dial up some swing and miss stuff. Again, we are mostly looking at a DK play here with the FD price a bit out of bounds.
Trevor Rogers FD 7100 DK 9200
Opponent - PHI (Ranger Suárez) Park - PHI
FD - 32.8 DK - 17.61
I’m putting these two guys together because I think they are mispriced on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively. Rogers doesn’t have a great matchup against the Phillies, but the $7000 price tag on FanDuel is simply too low for a dude who’s struck out almost 11 batters per nine over his first 166 innings and has a career 3.59 xFIP. Paying this salary on a day with a ton of bats really helps round out lineups.
And then there is Taillon who is a -188 road favorite against a weaker Orioles team. The $7K salary on DraftKings is coming a tier below expectation and Taillon started the season real nice for New York, striking out six in five innings while allowing no runs. He doesn’t have K expectation quite that high, but this is a Baltimore team that’s already striking out at a 28% rate, the second-highest in the league.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4500 DK 5700
Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - OAK
FD - 15.71 DK - 11.83
Guerrero only has 32 plate appearances under his large belt so far this season and the 23-year-old phenom already has five home runs. He has a career .900 OPS which, if this season is any indication, will only go up. Sure, the 63% HR/FB ratio isn’t in any way sustainable, but the early season numbers are just a continued testament to how freaking good this guy is. The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run lines of the day for good reason.
Connor Joe FD 3600 DK 3500
Opponent - CHC (Mark Leiter Jr.) Park - CHC
FD - 14.58 DK - 11.02
The Rockies have the actual highest run line going into Saturday’s action with it looking like there will be some wind blowing out in Coors. They’ll face off against Leiter who’s 31 but has spent almost all of his career in the minors. Joe is hitting leadoff for the Rockies and has been excellent to start the season with a couple of home runs already. For his career, he’s a tougher strikeout (20%) and will take walks, even more so this season. There is some early season run hot, but the price hasn’t come close to correcting for where this guy is hitting. He’s especially cheap on DraftKings.
Brendan Rodgers FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - CHC (Mark Leiter Jr.) Park - CHC
FD - 12.96 DK - 9.94
Rodgers has moved down in the order which does cut into his projection some, but he’s still a bargain on both sites considering he’s getting to hit in Coors for a team with a whopping 6.6 implied run line on Saturday. Again, Mark Leiter is a journeyman pitcher who now steps into the worst place to pitch in the majors. Rodgers is considerably better against lefties for his (short) career so we are catching him on the wrong side of his platoon. But that’s baked some into the price and this is just such an excellent spot for the team as a whole.
Coming back the other way in Coors, we have a chance to grab a cheaper bat hitting near the top of the order in the best hitter’s park in baseball. That’s pretty tough to pass up. Madrigal is a pretty rare breed these days, a dude who makes contact a ton (like 90% of the time) and has very little in the way of power. While the fantasy piece relies on him putting the ball in play and then coming around and scoring, he is still so good on the contact piece that it actually has the chance to work. The matchup against Senzatela plays to Madrigal’s strengths considering the former has struck out only six batters per nine over the course of his career.
We wrote up Bichette yesterday and likely will continue to do so over much of this season when the matchups are right for the Blue Jays. Blackburn’s first game of the season looks definitely like an outlier for his career considering this is a dude who’s struck out around five batters per nine for his first 140+ innings pitched. We should have to worry about the Blue Jays putting up runs in this game and though Bichette has been slow out of the gate, this is a guy who rocked a 29 home run, 25 stolen base season last time out.
The Dodgers seem to be in a good spot every single day of the season with an elite lineup and just a run of subpar pitchers taking the mound against them. Hunter Greene probably isn’t one of those guys considering he’s a dude who’s flashed it at the minor league level already and has some K upside for sure. But Turner is still too cheap on FanDuel considering how he can get after it in the power and speed departments. Greene will struggle with control from time to time, a definite no-no against this Dodgers lineup that has very few outs.
Ryan McMahon FD 4000 DK 3800
Opponent - CHC (Mark Leiter Jr.) Park - CHC
FD - 14.1 DK - 10.66
To continue something of a theme we have going at Coors, McMahon is a middle-of-the-order bat hitting in the best environment on Saturday, coming sub-$4K on DraftKings. The FanDuel price does make things a bit closer, but DK has it a pretty easy decision. McMahon, like a lot of hitters, has taken advantage of Coors over the years. When playing at home, the dude has an .846 OPS and .228 ISO. It’s just too good of a place to take hacks and in this one he’s against a weaker arm in the better side of his platoon.
We’ve written up Muncy a lot to start the season, but it’s been for good reason. The dude, when firing, is one of the better hitters in the game and he just isn’t priced like one. He hasn’t gotten off to the greatest start this season with a slugging beneath the actual on-base percentage (never a good sign), but he’s put up .900+ seasons in three of the last four walks at an elite rate and has flashed tons of power. This is exactly what you want in a cash game play and I have no doubt things pick up here.
Springer closed an injury-plagued 2021 campaign with an OPS over .900 and he’s picked up pretty much where he left off this time around. He’s come out of the gate strong, sporting an OPS in the high .900s with some home runs and an early hard contact rate of 50%. That will surely drop over the course of the season, but the Jays offense, especially at the top, is putting it on pitchers.
Seiya Suzuki FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.62
These guys should hit one and five respectively in the Rockies lineup on Saturday against the righty Senzatela. Ortega has been a solid contact guy for his career, putting the ball in play about 80% of the time through around 800 plate appearances. He doesn’t have a ton of power which is what drives the price down, but the power upside (if there is any) can come around in a park and matchup like this one. I like the price on both sites considering the plate appearance expectation in Coors.
And then there is Suzuki who I wish was hitting leadoff for this team. He’s come over to the majors and almost instantly put his stamp on things. The dude has three home runs in his first 26 plate appearances. And when he isn’t hitting bombs, it seems like he’s just taking walks. It’s still early, but there’s a reason the Cubs paid a pretty penny for his services and he’s paying off so far. The price hasn’t caught up to the skills yet.
Tyler Wells will get the start for the Orioles, but it looks like it will only be an opener role. That could mean some rougher platoon stuff for the Gallo as the game moves forward. The Yankees’ slugger has really gotten off to a slow start, and doesn’t have a single 5x5 category win yet (0 HRs, Runs, RBIs or SBs so far). There’s a reason the FanDuel price is so darn low. But I still want to believe in the track record here for Gallo who sported an .809 OPS last season and has a ton of power in the bat.