DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/3/22 - Main Slate

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Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff FD 9700 DK 8900
Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - CIN
FD - 43.33 DK - 23.56

After struggling to get the K stuff going in his first two starts, Woodruff has started to round back into form over the last couple, striking out 15 batters in his last 10 innings. It’s a good sign for the righty who was electric last season. And on Tuesday he’ll have a chance to improve on that against a bottom-feeding Reds team. Cincinnati is easily the worst offense in the league with a .267 team wOBA, five points lower than the next-closest team. Woodruff and the Brewers are -245 home favorites, far and away the best win odds on the day. I suspect he’s the chalk pitcher here on Tuesday.

Joe Ryan FD 10200 DK 9500
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BAL
FD - 39.82 DK - 21.84

With Ryan and Woodruff both coming under 10K on DraftKings, I think we’ll be able to fit them in lineups pretty easily together. The Orioles rank 24th in team wOBA this season and strike out at the second-highest rate (25.7%). It’s close to a dream matchup for Ryan who’s been awesome for his first 50 major league innings on the mound. He’s striking out close to 10 batters per nine and has a 4:1 K:BB ratio in that time. The matchup is too good to pass up and the peripherals point in the right direction for Ryan here.

Catcher/First Base

C.J. Cron FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 14.47 DK - 10.88

The Rockies’ 5.9 implied run line is easily the highest of the day, nearly a run higher than the next-closest team. So we are going to want to have exposure to some of these Coors bats. Cron has started off great in the power department this season, already belting eight home runs on the season with an OPS in the mid-900s. Fedde has been the definition of an average pitcher over the course of his career with a strikeout rate right around seven per nine innings. Cron predictably is doing most of his damage at home with a 1.153 OPS there this season. Let’s fire him up again there on Tuesday.

Yasmani Grandal FD 2400 DK 4300
Opponent - CHC (Drew Smyly) Park - CHC
FD - 10.69 DK - 7.87 Grandal is a dude who’s really struggling to start the season with an abysmal OPS and just not a lot in the way of positives to speak of. But he’s been able to reduce the K’s and is running crazy bad (.173) on his BABIP so far. It’s not the whole story, but it’s some of it. As a switch hitter, he’s pretty much platoon neutral though has been slightly better in his career when facing lefties. Smyly struggles to put batters away so this is a chance for Grandal to start turning things around.

Second Base

José Altuve FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 12.38 DK - 9.44

The Astros are in a good spot against Chris Flexen on Tuesday considering the righty can’t strike anyone out. He’s put batters away only 16% of the time throughout his career and a 5.06 career xFIP. That’s about as bad as you’ll see from a regular starter and it’s good news for Houston. Altuve meanwhile has really struggled to start this season with an OPS in the .500 range and little power to speak of. It’s something of a concern for sure, though is also the reason we are getting him at such a cheap FanDuel price.

César Hernández FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.1

He’ll be hitting leadoff in Coors and sometimes, that in and of itself is good enough to warrant a play in cash games. The DraftKings price is super low considering the spot even if the matchup against German Marquez isn’t necessarily ideal. Hernandez ran into 21 home runs last season and yet still finished with an OPS below .700. That’s pretty darn tough to do. For the most part, he’s a light-hitting second baseman who used to steal bases but doesn’t anymore. That being said, coming in the lower middle tier in the top lineup spot, and hitting in the best power park in baseball means all of the other context lines up.

Shortstop

Alan Trejo FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.34

Lucius Fox FD 2500 DK 2600
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 7.65 DK - 5.91

We are going to go dumpster diving at shortstop today and I think that’s an ok way to go. There are plenty of spend-ups at nearly every other position with quality arms on the mound and guys going in hitter’s parks. For Trejo and Fox, the upside here is hitting in Coors and comping cheap. Both are projected to hit near the bottom of their respective orders, but Trejo is a full punt on FD and Fox is near the minimums on both sites. From that perspective, we don’t need all that much to happen in order to hit value. Again, these aren’t fantastic offensive, hit-first guys, but I do think this is the position to go ahead and try for some savings.

If you want to spend up you can go for Bo Bichette (FD $3300 DK $5000) on FanDuel.

Third Base

Ryan McMahon FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 12.98 DK - 9.82

The more top and middle of the order Rockies bats we can get, the better. McMahon should be hitting fifth for Colorado on Tuesday against the righty and isn’t going to break the bank on you. It’s been a bit slow out of the gate for the guy with only two home runs and an OPS hovering in the mid-700s. The K’s are a bit of a problem, but that’s mitigated some in this matchup. He’s much better in his platoon versus righties and is obviously better at home as well.

Maikel Franco FD 3200 DK 2800
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 8.22 DK - 6.3

Franco should be hitting fifth for the Nationals in Coors today and is coming really cheap on DraftKings especially. Under $3K for this kind of spot is too much to pass up and even though he is a righty, Franco is a reverse platoon guy for his career so he’s in the better side of his splits facing off against Marquez. He strikes out less and walks more against righties and has a higher ISO as well. If you are looking to save on DK, there are worse ways than a middle-of-the-order hitter going in Denver.

Outfield

Juan Soto FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.07

Juan Soto coming in the upper-middle-tier teeing off in Coors against a righty? We’ll take it. He doesn’t have the OPS quite at the same level as last season but he’s running a bit bad in the BABIP department. The hard contact rate is down and the IFFB rate is up, both of which can be a bit concerning. But this is one of the best hitters in baseball who walks (20%) more than he strikes out (15%) and has just murdered righty pitching in his short career. He has a 1.025 OPS and .437 wOBA in that split. Those numbers are about as good as you’ll ever see.

Connor Joe FD 3900 DK 5600
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 13.41 DK - 10.13

Charlie Blackmon FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 13.29 DK - 10.19

These guys should go 1-2 in the Rockies’ order on Tuesday, going lefty-lefty against the righty Fedde. Joe has gotten off to an excellent start this season with four home runs and an .876 OPS thanks to an 11% walk rate and making it tough for pitchers to put him down on strikes. He’s getting pricey on DraftKings for sure, making it a bit tougher to pull it off over there. But the FanDuel price is something of an easier call sitting under $4K.

Meanwhile, Blackmon has the OPS hovering around 800 and though he got off to a hot start with four home runs, the power might be tailing a bit. He’s fairly platoon neutral for his career so there isn’t a huge advantage with him facing off against the righty here. But it’s also what helps the Rockies go with two lefties at the top of the lineup. Blackmon is a bargain on DraftKings at under $5K.

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