Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Wednesday 5/11/22
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Point Guard / Shooting Guard
The Grizzlies were able to hang in the game last time out even without Ja Morant thanks to some increased defensive pressure and the Warriors also just missing a ton of shots. Now they are on the brink of elimination and will be without Ja for this game and going forward. Tyus Jones played 41 minutes in Game 4 finishing with 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists. It’s hard to imagine he gets the same run this time out, but you also are still getting him at a relative bargain considering the upgrade he gets with Morant out. I think this is still a pretty easy play.
He ramped up the minutes to more than 40 last game and that should be the case moving forward for the rest of the series. He *only* took 13 shots in that run but finished with 18 points and eight assists. He only had two defensive stats, but for a player like Smart, that’s at the low end of the expectation if this is how long he’s going to be on the court. I really like the DraftKings price in the middle tier and think he helps ease some salary concerns while also providing safety with the minutes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11500 DK - $11600
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 68.99 DK - 70.8
If Giannis is going to play 40+ minutes a game then we aren’t at a breaking point with his price yet. Sure, the Celtics' defense is a tough out, but we are talking about a guy who can literally do it all from a fantasy standpoint. And now he’s playing max minutes. That’s just too good to pass up and the Memphis guys allow for the savings. For the series, he’s averaging 32 points, 13 rebounds, eight assists, and more than two blocks+steals. He’s just a superstar’s superstar and really none of that is anything new. We aren’t at a place with the price where this is a fade.
Dillon Brooks FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.67 DK - 38.13
Desmond Bane FD - $6100 DK - $6400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.36 DK - 37.76
Look, I get that Brooks was terrible in Game 4. It’s been litigated and there’s really nothing I can say that would change anyone’s opinion here. I still think that without Ja Morant in the lineup, the opportunity on a two-game slate is too good to pass up. He took 19 shots, the second-most on the team, but just couldn’t make any of them. It happens. Sure, some of the misses looked really bad, but the usage is going to be there and it’s likely that this guy goes down chucking in the end. He’s still coming too cheap considering the context.
Meanwhile, Bane definitely looks hurt and I’m not as confident running him out there as a play even with the context. With Ja out last game, he took only eight shots total and that’s definitely a concern. Though the price still looks like a bargain, I have to wonder if he should even be on the court for the Grizzlies considering he’s almost for sure dealing with a more serious issue in the back. Part of me wants to still risk it here, but it’s pretty tough.
Power Forward/ Center
Al Horford FD - $7900 DK - $7300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 43.4 DK - 44.14
Al Horford coming in the mid-to-high $7K range would seem like a crazy proposition, but man has he ever earned it this series. He had already double-doubled in each of the first three games, and then he went completely off in Game 4 with 30 points and eight rebounds in his 40 minutes. For the series, he’s averaging 19 points, 11 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.8 blocks+steals. That’s about as good as you could ever dream for someone who’s now critical for the Celtics to get by the Bucks in this series.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7600 DK - $6700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.62 DK - 39.26
Steven Adams FD - $5300 DK - $3400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 24.64 DK - 24.34
If we’re going down, we’re going down playing the Grizzlies. Jaren Jackson took a team-high 21 shots in Game 4 and like much of the rest of his team, simply couldn’t hit anything. He ended up going 7-21 from the field and 0-7 from three. It was brutal all the way around. But as he’s wont to do, JJJ turned in seven blocks+steals in this game and still found a way to basically creep to value because of it. Without Morant, these are the guys the Grizzlies are going down with, and I’m here for it.
And then there is Adams to round out the Memphis starting lineup. He made the somewhat surprising start in Game 4 and promptly went for 10 points and 15 rebounds in his 27 minutes. It was a slate-breaking performance considering he really hadn’t played in weeks. The DraftKings price didn’t adjust enough under the assumption that he’s still in the starting lineup for this game.