Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Wednesday 5/11/22
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Point Guard / Shooting Guard
The DraftKings price is still kind of a joke. Following some of the best defensive plays you’ll ever see in sequence (go back and watch the last seven seconds of this game) one has to believe Jrue is ready to roll here once again. He’s averaging 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists for this series with three steals + blocks to boot. He’s been amazing, no way around it. Though the FanDuel price has come up to meet this, the DK salary is too low.
The Grizzlies are a pretty crazy team. It shouldn’t make any sense for them to go into Game 5 of this series without Ja Morant and summarily go out and take down the Warriors by 39 (39!!!) points, winning 134-95 and sending this series back to Golden State. That kind of thing simply doesn’t happen within the context of a regular basketball playoff series. But here we are. Tyus Jones has seen the price increase on FanDuel for sure, but the DraftKings salary is still very much in the sweet spot here. And it’s clear that Memphis intends to play him a lot of minutes if the game is even remotely close.
The price is still kind of. a joke if this game is close and the Grizzlies need everything they can get in order to hang with the Warriors on the road. Sure, Brooks had a disaster of a time out in Game 4, but he turned it around to some degree in Game 5 and scored 25 FanDuel points in just 24 minutes. With Ja off the court, his usage goes way up and the price isn’t anything close to matching the opportunity on a full minutes load. I think this is a pretty easy play.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12000 DK - $11900
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 68.99 DK - 70.8
Giannis had a “down” game in Game 5 and still scored 40 points. It’s pretty unreal with this guy at this point. He also chipped in 11 rebounds and some other ancillary stats but was undone by the seven turnovers. The Bucks will be looking to put this series away back at home in Milwaukee and you have to imagine it’s all-out time for Giannis and company. He’s just a tough fade for the way these playoff slates shake out. Sure, it costs and you have to pay for it on the back end. But, of course, it’s worth it.
Desmond Bane FD - $6300 DK - $6200
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.36 DK - 37.76
If you were worried about the back injury, you have to be encouraged by the Game 5 performance from Bane who took the second-most shots on the team (12) and finished tied for a team-high with 21 points. It doesn’t mean the Grizzlies are going to hang in this series, but it could mean that he isn’t as hampered as before. If that’s the case then this price still is a bargain and we can stack Grizzlies here.
Pat Connaughton FD - $4500 DK - $4400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.58 DK - 26.76
He didn’t start, but he for sure closed. The Bucks needed Pat C’s shooting late in this game and he ended up playing 31 minutes, going 3-5 from three. The rest of the line didn’t look all that great, but it was legit the basement on this kind of minutes expectation. I think he’s totally fine at these price points if this is how the Bucks are going use him in this game as well.
Power Forward/ Center
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7900 DK - $7000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.62 DK - 39.26
Steven Adams FD - $5400 DK - $4500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 25.59 DK - 25.28
Look, I get it. It’s hard to know what to expect out of the Grizzlies at this point, even though the last game was a sign that we can at least trust that they will fight until the end. In one of the more improbable outcomes we will ever see, Memphis crushed Golden State, forcing Game 6. If they are going to keep rolling this way, then Adams is going to get the start and Jaren Jackson Jr. is going to play major minutes. If the latter can stay out of foul trouble then he going to crush these prices.
And then there is Adams who came in to start the last game and it’s proven to be the right choice. He’s been an animal in his minutes and in the last two and is averaging nine points and 14 rebounds, and is an overall plus for Memphis in his minutes. This is such an interesting situation, something we don’t often see and Adams is making us play it out.
Grant Williams FD - $4000 DK - $4600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.59 DK - 25.01
Game 5 was a fantasy horror show. I get it. He scored 0 points, grabbed two rebounds, and dished out one assist in 31 (!!) minutes. This is about as ineffective as it gets from a fantasy perspective and you are right to be worried about playing him. But the price is simply too low if he is in the starting lineup and this is the minutes expectation. His per-30 minute stats in this series are about in line with these stats and the more important thing is fitting in the superstars. Williams is a way to do this.