Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/17/22
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
Pitching on the main slate is a bit rough for Tuesday so we are going to need to make the best of what we are given. Taillon comes in as the biggest money line favorite for the evening with the Yankees at -230 on the road against the Orioles. Baltimore strikes out the 7th most in the league and they rank 22nd in team wOBA. They are a below-average squad all the way around. Meanwhile, Taillon’s 2.93 ERA masks the 3.65 xFIP, but both are pretty good all things considered. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but he really doesn’t walk anyone either. For this slate, he seems like the safest play, which might not be saying all that much.
Bundy is coming off an IL stint so it will be interesting to see just how far he goes in this game. That, in and of itself, makes him a riskier proposition for this main slate of games. But again, the options aren’t all that great and even some of the other decent arms are up against tough opponents. The Oakland A’s aren’t that. For the season, they rank dead last in team wOBA and it really isn’t all that close seeing as how they are 14 whole points behind the next closest team. Plus they strike out the fifth-most in the league. So Bundy has the best matchup on the board. It’s just a matter of how long he can last in the game.
The Giants could be popular plays once again facing off against the Rockies in the thin air of Colorado. Their 6.5 implied run line is easily the highest of the slate and really one of the higher ones you will ever see in the majors. It speaks to Chad Kuhl on the mound against them and their ability to hit pretty well around the top of the order especially. Belt should be in the cleanup slot on Tuesday against the righty and is coming off a 29-home run season. He has four already this year with an OPS in the mid-800s. He’s tough to put down on strikes and that’s a problem for opposing pitchers when you are going in this ballpark.
Look, it’s just so hard to avoid these Coors games. I didn’t make the air thin or decide that Denver was a good place to put a ballpark. Those decisions are well above my pay grade. But we need to take what we are given and the simple fact is that the ball travels out of this park at a much (much) higher rate than just about anywhere else in the majors. Just ask CJ Cron who has seven home runs in just 87 plate appearances at home this season.
Yeah, I get it, you want to see some non-Coors plays. We'll head somewhere else because when a team has a 6.5 implied run line heading in those are who you are going to get here. There will come a point at which you can’t play all the Giants, so decisions will need to be made. But both of these dudes are coming cheap, especially on DraftKings and it’s almost too good to pass up. Sure, they are slated to hit 7th and 8th in the order which diminishes the plate appearance expectation on both. But the run line, matchup, and park do make up for that. La Stella at the minimum on DraftKings is a perfect punt even if he’s hitting in the basement. It’s still worth it and you can play one extra Giant over on that site anyway.
Consider DJ LeMahieu (FD $3300 DK $4600) if he’s hitting leadoff against Watkins on Tuesday.
All the Giants, please. While Crawford isn’t going to hit at the top of the lineup for San Fran, he’s unlikely to get pinch-hit for either, making him a tad safer in this respect. While he knocked 24 home runs last season, he isn’t on quite the same pace this time around with only three so far. And the OPS has taken a bit of a nosedive as well. But he’s coming at a reasonable price and has gotten hit with some BABIP issues so far that is lowering his overall production. I think he’s a safer play considering the park and the run line.
Tim Anderson FD DK 4900
Opponent - KC (Jonathan Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.49
I prefer the guys in Coors obviously but can see a case for getting away from them in some spots. Anderson remains a power and speed threat at the top of the lineup with four home runs and five steals already on the season. He’s been near impossible to strike out with a 12% K rate so far that helps mitigate the 2% walk rate. He can sustain a higher BABIP because of the speed as well which is why he has a .370 OBP. This is just the kind of guy to spend up for because he can help in a variety of ways.
We haven’t looked too much at the Rockies' side of things mostly because their implied run line is more than a run lower than the Giants and the Colorado guys are priced almost a tier above. That being said, third base is an odd position for this slate so I don’t mind going here with McMahon. For his career, he has an .851 OPS and .360 wOBA at home, taking advantage of the thin air. The .232 ISO is more than 100 points higher than what he’s done on the road during that stretch as well. This is all to say, play this guy when he’s able to sleep in his own bed the night before.
Rafael Devers FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - HOU (Jose Urquidy) Park - HOU
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.62
Devers is putting together another very strong season so far with an .883 OPS thanks to six home runs while putting the ball in play about 80% of the time. Jose Urquidy has struck out batters at less than six per nine this season, a garbage number that isn’t going to work against Devers at all. Though he’s a bit on the expensive side, it’s for good reason seeing as how he’s one of the better hitters in the game in a good matchup.
Joc Pederson FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 14.33 DK - 10.76
LaMonte Wade Jr. FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 14.72 DK - 11.12
Mike Yastrzemski FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 15.28 DK - 11.5
Trying to stack these three guys is likely what you see a lot of folks do on this slate considering the nature of the Giants’ implied run line and each of their projected slots in the Giants’ batting order. On Tuesday, when they faced off against the righty Senzatela these guys went 1-2-3 for San Francisco, trying to punish the platoon splits early and often. The risk here is that both Pederson and Yaz were pinch hit for later in the game by Austin Slater and Wilmer Flores respectively. That kind of platoon machination does cut some into the plate appearance expectation because Colorado can easily bring a lefty in out of the pen to face this group of batters. It’s something to watch out for.
But each of these guys is dangerous in their own right. Wade is very patient and has shown power as well. His .802 OPS plays well here. Pederson doesn’t get on base a ton, but he already has seven home runs on the season and has shown bigger power numbers in the past. And Yaz has increased the walk rate while lowering his strikeout numbers considerably. This is a formidable top three in the lineup if the Giants choose to go this route again.
After the Coors guys, you can definitely think about playing Mike Trout (FD $4300 DK $5500) who is putting up MVP numbers once again.
GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!
- 1024px-Coors_Field,_Denver,_Colorado,_US: By color line (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons