Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/14/22 - Main Slate
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Don’t let the 3.63 ERA for Cole fool you here, the 2.79 xFIP is almost a full run lower and he continues to be one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball. He has a 5:1 K:BB ratio on the season and is still striking guys out at a 31% clip. Cole comes into Tuesday as a -220 favorite at home against the Rays who rank 25th in team wOBA and strikeout out 23% of the time. This is a smash spot for Cole though you will need to pay for the privilege.
There was no early line on this game, though it stands to reason that Cease will be a heavier favorite against Hutchison and the Tigers. Cease has one of the highest K/9 rates in the majors at 12.71 and has proven to have elite swing and miss stuff over the last couple of seasons. The big change was ditching his changeup in favor of a splitter and mostly just throwing three pitches. It’s completely worked. The Tigers ranks dead last in offensive wOBA this season and are basically one of the worst hitting teams in baseball.
If we are on the hunt for cheaper options to be able to fit the top arms as well as some bats from Coors, then these two guys could fit the bill on Tuesday. Both are coming under $3K on FanDuel and under $4K on DraftKings meaning we are getting some savings. And both are coming on the better side of their splits facing the lefty Bubic.
For his career, Flores has an .810 OPS against lefties with a .340 wOBA and a .218 ISO. Those are all significantly better than what he’s done against righties. But since he plays against both pitchers, the price is driven down across the board. Now is the time to play him. Meanwhile, Run has been elite against lefties for his career with a .929 OPS and .393 wOBA. That’s about as good as you’ll see and he just mashes this platoon. The only issue for Ruf is he is major candidate to get pinch-hit for later in games so the plate appearance expectation is diminished.
In the second leg of the double-header, the Cardinals will face off against Bryse Wilson and have one of the higher implied run lines on the slate. It’s good news for a guy like Gorman who should, once again, be hitting second in the lineup behind Edman. Gorman has had a solid enough start to his major league career with an OPS right around .800 though the 32% K rate is a bit concerning. The good news is that Wilson doesn’t have a ton of strikeout stuff so that downside is mitigated some. Gorman is a good price on both sites.
Trevor Story FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - OAK (Jared Koenig) Park - OAK
FD - 13.85 DK - 10.5
After struggling to start the season, Story has picked it up in the short-term and is at least starting to get the bat on the ball. This is a good matchup for the Red Sox second baseman against the lefty Koenig who hasn’t shown much K stuff so far in the majors (though admittedly it’s a very small sample size). Story though mashes lefties for his career with a .996 OPS in that split along with a .413 wOBA and .396 wRC+. Sure, some of that was Coors’ aided, but this guy still tunes up lefties.
Rosario should be hitting second in the Cleveland lineup as they head into Coors on Tuesday and that’s a great place to be, especially at his FanDuel price. Sitting sub $3K and playing in Denver is about as good as it gets even if Rosario has struggled some this season. The OPS is in the tank, but he makes a lot of contact, just what you want to see in this park. I suspect, on FanDuel, he’s a very popular play because of the price.
Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 5000
Opponent - OAK (Jared Koenig) Park - OAK
FD - 13.82 DK - 10.5
Bogaerts is coming just a bit too cheap on FanDuel where you might want to consider paying the extra $600 over Rosario in this situation. Xander is a much better hitter than Rosario and though the latter is aided by Coors, there is only so much a ballpark can do. This is still a guy with a high-800s OPS who has been about 50 OPS points better against lefties for his career.
José Ramírez FD 4600 DK 6100
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 17.91 DK - 13.53
One of the best hitters in baseball heading into the best hitter’s park in baseball? That’s about all we need to know for Ramirez who could feast during his time in Coors. This is a guy who walks (13.5%) almost twice as much as he strikes out (7%), has a 1.030 OPS and basically is impossible (baseball-wise) to get out. Yes, the price is through the roof, but Ramirez is why you make concessions in other parts of your lineup.
I’m not fading Ramirez in cash at 3B, but if you wanted to you could consider Manny Machado (FD $3800 DK $5600). Also, Wilmer Flores is 3B eligible on DraftKings meaning you could pair him with Ruf there.
We can keep the Coors train rolling here with Straw hitting leadoff once again for the Guardians. Why they keep him in that slot is beyond me, but here we are. This is a guy who struggles with power and needs his speed to get him on base. But he does have 11 stolen bases on the season and is in the best hitter’s park situation on the day.
And then there is Oscar Gonzalez who has an OPS in the .900s despite not hitting a home run in his first 65 plate appearances in the majors. But he’s been tough to put down on strikes and everything else has somehow turned into a hit. There will be regression there, but it will happen o the positive side with the power as well. I think we are getting him at a major discount, especially on DraftKings.
If we are looking to save to fit those expensive bats and a couple of high-priced arms then Slater could be just the guy. He’s slated to hit leadoff for the Giants against the lefty Bubic and has been way better in this split for his career. He’s got an .844 OPS and 129 wRC+ when facing lefties and is tough to put down on strikes. Like Ruf, he’s a pinch-hit candidate which is no good, but he’s also coming at right around the minimums.
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- Jose Ramirez: (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)