Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/30/22
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It's a rough night if you are wanting to target top pitching as almost every one of them has a matchup against a top offence. All but Logan Gilbert that is as he gets one of the best matchups on the board against an A's team that is 2nd to last in runs scored and dead last in average, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season. For Gilbert, he has taken his game to the next level in year two as he enters the night with a sparkling 2.44 ERA/3.63 xFIP and is striking out over a batter per inning. He is my top pitcher on both sites and in play in all formats.
Get ready for some risk at the SP2 spot on DraftKings tonight. The system loves the PTS/$ value with Kikuchi but I will keep that roller coaster ride for GPP formats. For cash games, I have much more faith in Ashcraft who has put together a very solid rookie campaign. He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of seven starts and flashed his upside last time out striking out eight Giants and walking none. The rubber match of this series is a pickem in Vegas but I like the matchup against a league-average Cubs offence and will have exposure to Ashcraft in all formats.
Also Consider: Yusei Kikuchi(TOR) for even more saving at the SP2 position but strap in as the variance has been off the charts. The good news is that the Rays strike out about 6-7% more against left-handed pitching
He is coming off an 0 for 2 yesterday but Vladdy has really started to find his swing over the last month hitting .294 in June with nine home runs and 22 RBI. The matchup is unclear at this time as it could also be Drew Rasmussen returning from the IL but either way, it is hard to ignore the high floor and ceiling with Vladdy at a trending price that has dropped $1,000 on DraftKings in less than a week. More good news as the Rays bullpen has struggled over the last week and a half. All things considered, Vladdy is the top play at first base if paying up tonight.
Good news if you are paying up for pitching and not wanting to risk the SP options as we have a nice selection of value plays throughout the slate and it starts at first base. With Bryce Harper going on the IL, the Phillies have called up Darick Hall who has been delivering huge power at the AAA level and is likely to be back in the cleanup spot again today against a right-handed pitcher. While there is some risk as he tries to get settled in at the major-league level, the price is right on both sites. If back in the cleanup spot, he will be our top PTS/$ value at first and possibly on the entire slate.
Second base is pretty ugly today so I will be taking the value route almost 100% and I pair these two together as they both check a lot of the same boxes. Let's start with Wong who is back off IL and looked good in his return with a double, walk, and two runs scored. He is projected to hit 5th but there is a chance he gets back to his leadoff spot soon so start tuned for that as well. For Paredes, it comes down to opportunity as he is projected to hit near the top of the lineup against a lefty and has looked good recently with hits in five of his last seven games including three, three-hit games. Stay tuned for lineups later in the day as it will matter for both of these PTS/$ values.
Whenever we can take advantage of a star player whose price is suppressed, for whatever reason, we have to take advantage. That is the case with Wander Franco who checks almost every single box starting with that price that has dropped even more since he returned from injury which doesn't make too much sense considering he has hits in two of three games since the return. He also crushes left-handed pitching(.354 wOBA/.139 wRC+) and gets a plus matchup against a struggling Kikuchi. Franco is in an excellent buy-low situation and is in play in all formats.
I am a bit torn on whether the Mariners will be chalky tonight as while they do have a plus matchup, they are missing their offensive star in Ty France. While a lot of the M's players are peaking in price, Crawford remains a nice PTS/$ value for a guy hitting leadoff who only strikes out 15% of the time and is a near .300 hitter against right-handed pitching. If looking for savings at shortstop tonight, Crawford checks almost every box and is in play in all formats.
Eugenio Suárez FD 3300 DK 5200
Opponent - OAK (Adrian Martinez) Park - OAK
FD - 12.86 DK - 9.57
I mentioned the Mariners' peaking prices above and Suarez is one of those players but is also in a great spot at another less-than-appealing position on this slate. The good news is that he has picked up the slack with the injury to France and comes into tonight with hits in six straight including four extra-base hits. While he has been slightly better against lefties this season, he is still an above-average hitter against righties with a 120 wRC+. All things considered, this is a spot I am willing to pay up and Suarez is my top play at the position in all formats.
The hype on Hayes has really died down in 2022 but I wouldn't sleep on one of the top prospects in baseball. He checks a lot of boxes starting with a price that is trending down on both sites while he is starting to heat up with hits in five of his last six games including a triple and a home run. He also gets to take his hacks from the leadoff spot and gets a plus matchup against Jason Alexander who has given up an average of seven hits per game in his five starts. Lock and load in all formats.
Christian Yelich FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.18
With a small slate and a lot of the top bats facing top pitching I expected Yelilch's price to be trending back up but that is not the case at all. That is great news as he comes in as one of the hottest hitters in baseball with hits in eight straight and 18 of his last 21 games(.329/.406/.424 slash line) including nine multi-hit efforts. Yelich also gets a nice floor projection boost as he hits leadoff and with his plus matchup against Brubaker, is easily my top play in the outfield tonight.
Rafael Ortega FD 2300 DK 3100
Opponent - CIN (Graham Ashcraft) Park - CIN
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.53
While I personally tend to like Ashcraft as a value SP2 tonight, the system is laughing at me and has the Cubs as a top offence. It comes down to writing up the pitcher last night before the forecast which now shows winds blowing out in Wrigley and we all know what that means. Offence! If that is the case(check before lock), I love Ortega here as he checks a lot of boxes starting with hitting leadoff. He also comes in with hits in seven of his last nine starts which includes five extra-base hits. Excellent PTS/$ value in all formats.