Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/11/22
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Good luck making the right choice on the mound tonight as we have 4-5 legit options who could be considered top arms on this slate. The interesting part is that not one of them has a matchup that jumps off the page outside of Nola who faces a struggling Cards team that has scored just 11 runs over their last eight games. Nola hasn't been pinpoint recently but has been very consistent going 7+ innings in six straight starts while recording a 2.01 ERA with 41 strikeouts and just five walks. In multi-entry, I will likely have some exposure to each of the top 4 but for cash games, Nola is my top dog.
To say this was a tough choice at SP2 would be an understatement as Fried not only goes up against one of the best in Max Scherzer but also faces a Top 5 Mets offence. While Fried may not have the upside of Max, he has been just as consistent, especially recently as he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts for a 1.85 ERA/3.08 xFIP. If there is one positive to take away from this tougher matchup is that the Mets haven't been as good against lefties and Fried looked good against them earlier in the year holding them to four hits and two earned runs while striking out six(23 DK/40 FD). Fried is in play in all formats and is my favourite SP2 on DraftKings if paying up for both pitchers.
Also Consider: Merrill Kelly(ARI) who has been terrific holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four facing a struggling Giants team(69 wRC+/25% K rate last 7 days)
Paying up for pitching may not be as hard as you think tonight with the Padres completely mispriced as they open a series in Coors Field with a plus matchup. Don't get me wrong, they haven't been tearing the cover off the ball(80 wRC+ as a team last 14 days) but we just can't ignore this opportunity. Hosmer is easily my top choice of the two as he is not only min price on DraftKings, but has been the more consistent option with a .273 average and hits in 10 of his last 14 games. Voit becomes more of GPP play for me with his problematic 33% K rate which has led to a .228 average but he has a ton of power upside and is likely hitting 4th/5th in the lineup.
Not often do we go full value at the first base position but on Monday every option over $4K on DraftKings has been ice-cold or gets a tough matchup against an ace pitcher. While Sheets doesn't get the hitter's park advantage of Coors, he does come in red-hot with hits in six of his last eight games with a double, home run, and nine RBI. He also gets a plus matchup against struggling Cal Quantrill who has given up almost seven hits per game and eight total home runs over his last eight starts. He is likely to remain in the top 5 of the batting order and if so, is a top PTS/$ value play on Monday.
The second base position is stacked with injuries on this slate making Trevor Story stand out like a sore thumb tonight. To say his first season in Boston has been frustrating would be an understatement as he is hitting just .221 and striking out 31% of the time but there is some light at the end of the tunnel. First of all, that ugly K rate is 8% higher than last season which was a part of a three-year trend of improvement in that area. More good news as he still comes with a ton of power upside with 15 home runs and 55 RBI and that is what were are chasing tonight. While he has been better against lefties, Wisler is slated to be the opener with lefty Josh Fleming getting the bulk reliever role tonight. Fire up Story in all formats.
Also Consider: Jake Cronenworth(SDP) who gets the plus Coors matchup and does correlate well if loading up on Padres but has been risky hitting just .145 over his last 16 games
Corey Seager FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Adrián Martínez) Park - OAK
FD - 12.85 DK - 9.75
This is definitely a position I will be paying up for tonight and it starts with Corey Seager. He has put his slow start to the season in the rearview as he comes into tonight with an elite .302/.394/.558 slash line since mid-June thanks to a walk rate(11.1%) that mirrors his K rate. He now gets a matchup against rookie Adrian Martinez who, after a successful first start to his career, has looked awful in his last two giving gup a total of 15 hits, 10 earned runs, and four long balls. Everything lines up nicely making Seager our top play at shortstop tonight.
Not far behind is Xander Bogaerts and the only thing keeping him from the top spot tonight is the fact he has cooled off with just one multi-hit effort in his last 14 games but the good news is that was yesterday. Even with the short-term slump, Xander is still hitting .309 on the season with an elite .386 OBP and should get multiple at-bats vs lefty, long reliever Josh Fleming and has crushed in the split to the tune of a .430 wOBA/181 wRC+. Whether you can't quite afford Seager and need the saving or just stacking the Red Sox, Bogaerts is in play in all formats.
Manny Machado FD - 3B 4400 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - COL
FD - 16.2 DK - 12.29
While FanDuel has the Padres priced accordingly given their matchup in Coors Field, DraftKings has once again messed things up making it super easy to stack them tonight. No batter stands out more in terms of being underpriced than Manny Machado who comes in under $5K and is the 29th most expensive player on the slate. While I would agree with the pricing on a slumping player, Machado is not that and leads the league in WAR(4.5) and is one of just a dozen players who have tallied 50+ runs scored and RBI on the season. I won't force him on FanDuel, but he is a core building block for me on DraftKings.
Yandy Díaz FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - BOS (Brayan Bello) Park - BOS
FD - 9.02 DK - 6.88
Machado is pretty much a lock on DraftKings but on FanDuel, there are some other intriguing PTS/$ plays and it starts with Yandy Diaz who has been one of the hottest bats in the league lately. While the power has yet to surface, he has been crazy consistent hitting .347 and getting on base at an eye-popping 45% rate going all the way back to the start of June. Even without the power, he has still put together an elite .402 wOBA and 172 wRC+ in that time. I will have exposure in all formats against a young and inconsistent pitcher.
Like the other positions, most of the top-priced plays are in tough matchups on this slate full of ace pitchers so it was a bit of a surprise to see Martinez at these prices. While the home runs(9) are down in 2022, the hard-hit rate(44%) is on par with previous seasons and he is also operating with an elite 13% barrel rate so I am not concerned at all. What he has lacked in power, he has more than made up for with consistency hitting .311 with a .378 on-base percentage. On top of that, he still absolutely crushes lefties to the tune of a .469 wOBA, 209 wRC+, and .233 ISO. He is my top play in the outfield on both sites and in all forms.
I mentioned how DraftKings has priced the Padres like they are playing at the Polo Grounds rather than Coors Field and that continues in the outfield. We are definitely going to check back for starting lineups on this one but let's start with Grisham who is projected to hit leadoff for a second straight game which would put him near the top of our PTS/$ rankings. Overall, he has an average under the Mendoza Line but does come in with hits in four of his last six. For Mazara, he has been much more consistent hitting .303 on the season with multi-hit games in two of his last three. While he likely hits down the lineup, he is sub $3K on FanDuel and min price on DraftKings. That opens up a ton of room for top pitching and couple big bats.