Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday, 7/17/22

This is the final slate before the All-Star break! These tend to be strange slates because many star players rest before they go on and participate in the LA festivities. I'm not so sure that will happen here, but it'll be interesting to see what these lineups look like. In any case, we have two elite pitchers that we love, so let's get started there!

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Shane BieberShane Bieber FD - P 10500 DK - SP 9400
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - CLE
FD - 34.08 DK - 18.42

Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2018, and it's hard to understand why he's below $10K on DraftKings. The right-hander allowed seven runs to the Blue Jays back in the first week of May but has a 2.73 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 rate in his other 17 starts this year. That alone makes him a good option against anyone, but this Detroit team ranks 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. Biebs has also had his way against them throughout his career, collecting a 2.61 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9 rate in 11 starts against the Motor City Kitties. That's why he'll likely be a -250 favorite in this sensational spot!

Aaron NolaAaron Nola FD - P 10200 DK - SP 9900
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - MIA
FD - 40.96 DK - 22.22

Nola is extremely unlucky to have a 5-7 record because his 3.35 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 rate are some of the best marks in baseball. He's become a horse for his team, too, throwing at least seven innings in seven consecutive starts. That's some Sandy Alcantara stuff right there, and Nola will undoubtedly put it to Sandy's team here. We say that because the Marlins rank 19th in OPS and 23rd in OBP. They're even worse than those statistics indicate, playing without their best player, Jazz Chisholm. All of that has Miami projected for just 3.5 runs in, with Aaron entering this matchup as a -160 favorite.

Mike Clevinger (FD $7800 DK $8400) is a good pivot if you want to save some salary. He has a 3.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and faces a 25th-ranked Arizona offense here as a -160 favorite.

Catcher/First Base

Rhys HoskinsRhys Hoskins FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4800
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - MIA
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.4

The loss of Bryce Harper hurt this club, but Rhys is doing everything possible to keep their heads above water. The mashing first baseman has a .385 OBP and .964 OPS over his last 42 games, and that doesn't even include another dinger on Saturday. His splits against southpaws are just as superb, posting a .401 OBP and 1.007 OPS against left-handers since 2020. All of that is terrible news for a struggling pitcher like Trevor Rogers, registering a 5.42 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Hoskins has also hosed Rogers throughout their careers, providing a .563 OBP, 1.214 SLG, and 1.777 OPS in 16 at-bats against him!

Ji-Man ChoiJi-Man Choi FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 3700
Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - TB
FD - 10.41 DK - 7.76

Tampa is one of the sneakiest stacks on this slate, and Choi would have to be the critical piece to that stack. This Korean first baseman always bats in the heart of the lineup against right-handers, totaling a .373 OBP and .823 OPS against them since 2020. That's a large sample size of dominance, and it looks even better since Ji-Man has a .389 OBP and .844 OPS in what's been a career year. We're certainly not worried about him facing a pitcher like Jordan Lyles either, with the righty amassing a 5.14 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across 1,253 career innings.

Willson Contreras (FD $3500 DK $5100) has been the best catcher in the NL and gets to face a lefty here if you need a C on DraftKings.

Second Base

Tommy EdmanTommy Edman FD - 2B 2900 DK - SS 4000
Opponent - CIN (Graham Ashcraft) Park - STL
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.71

We just spent a ton of salary at pitcher, so let's save some with a couple of cheap second basemen. This Edman price is one of the most egregious on the slate, averaging 8.1 DraftKings points per game this season. That's nearly Top-5 at his position, and it makes no sense why he's being priced around a bunch of bench players. We're talking about the leadoff hitter for one of the best lineups in baseball, with Tommy picking up eight hits, three doubles, six runs scored and a steal over the last five games played. That should continue against a struggling Ashcroft, accumulating a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over his last six starts.

Jonathan IndiaJonathan India FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B 3500
Opponent - STL (Steven Matz) Park - STL
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.08

Here we are with another undervalued leadoff hitter at second base! India earned this diminished price tag with his horrid play through the first two months, but a trip to the IL did him some good. The 2021 Rookie of the Year has a hit in nine of his last 10 games, providing a .348 OBP and .859 OPS in that span. That's the stud we saw throughout most of last season, and we believe he'll be this guy for the remainder of the season. Getting the platoon advantage against Steven Matz is marvelous, too, with the Cards lefty producing a 5.03 ERA and 1.39 WHIP since 2020.


Dansby SwansonDansby Swanson FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 5800
Opponent - WSH (Josh Rogers) Park - WSH
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.32

Atlanta has been a Top-5 offense since the opening month of the season, and Swanson is a significant reason why. The slugging shortstop has a .317 AVG, .372 OBP, .521 SLG, .892 OPS, and 12 steals since May 4. That's some of the best production at any position, and it's earned him the two-hole in this dominant lineup. His splits against lefties are equally as enticing, establishing a .408 OBP, .523 SLG, and .931 OPS against them so far this year. Josh Rogers is also one of the worst pitchers on this slate, and we'll dive into his numbers a little later on!

Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 5600
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - TEX
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.34

I wasn't so sure the Seager contract was justified, but this guy has been raking ever since he put on that Texas uniform. The former Dodger comes into this matchup homering in seven of the last 10 games, totaling a .378 AVG, .457 OBP, .973 SLG, and 1.429 OPS in that span. A ton of that damage has come at Globe Life Field, with Corey compiling a .363 OBP, .600 SLG, and .963 OPS there this year. We definitely believe he can keep that going against Chris Flexen, who's generating a 3.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That also gives Seager the platoon advantage from the left side, and there's not much deterring Seager from continuing his HR streak.

Third Base

José RamírezJosé Ramírez FD - 3B 4100 DK - 3B 5500
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - CLE
FD - 12.79 DK - 9.66

Ramirez should be one of the most expensive players on every slate, and it's bizarre to see him outside the Top-15 batters in terms of salary on DraftKings. In any case, we'll take advantage because J-Ram leads all active players with 10.5 DK points per game. Aaron Judge is the only player tied with him, and it's hard to understand what DK is thinking. What makes it even more bizarre is the fact that Jose had two bombs and five RBI on Saturday. That makes him tough to fade against this terrible Tigers pitching staff, with Beau Breiske accumulating a 5.00 ERA across his last five starts. It also puts J-Ram on his more favorable left side, and he's quite simply one of the safest plays on the board!

Ke'Bryan HayesKe'Bryan Hayes FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4400
Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - COL
FD - 9.54 DK - 7.35

We need to have some exposure to Coors Field! Hayes looks like the best value of the bunch because he's been slaughtering southpaws all season. In fact, Ke'Bryan has collected a .333 AVG, .411 OBP, .515 SLG, and .926 OPS, with the platoon advantage in his favor this year. That makes him a great option in a place like Coors Field, especially since he has a .444 OBP and 1.053 OPS over his last six outings. Getting to face Austin Gomber is grand, too, with the lefty totaling a 6.11 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in what's becoming a typical Rockies season.


Ronald Acuña Jr.Ronald Acuña Jr. FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 6500
Opponent - WSH (Josh Rogers) Park - WSH
FD - 13.35 DK - 10.06

We mentioned earlier that Atlanta is one of the best stacks on the board, and Acuna would have to be used if that's the route you want to take. This offense is projected for five runs in this spot, facing a Washington club that ranks 29th in both ERA and WHIP. They happen to be sending a Triple-A arm to the wolves here, with Rogers registering a 5.42 ERA and 1.44 WHIP for his career. That certainly won't go over well against Ronald, scoring at least 12 FanDuel points in 13 of his last 20 games atop this lineup. His splits are the icing on the cake, though, providing a .420 OBP and .951 OPS against left-handers since 2020.

Franmil ReyesFranmil Reyes FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3200
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - CLE
FD - 10.64 DK - 7.98

If we use the Braves and the high-priced pitchers, we need to save some salary at our other OF spots. Reyes is a great way to do that, batting in the heart of this Cleveland lineup. The big man has struggled at times this season, but he's got a .492 SLG and .748 OPS over his last 16 games. That means things are starting to turn around, and the hard-hit metrics tell us that more positive regression is right around the corner. We discussed how poor Brieske has been recently, making J-Ram and Reyes one of the most intriguing two-man stacks on the board. Josh Naylor could be a great cheap addition if you want to make that a full three-man stack, with Naylor generating a .921 OPS against righties this year!

Jesse WinkerJesse Winker FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.19

Seattle is the hottest team in baseball right now, and I'm convinced that Winker's blowup in LA is a primary reason why. That "brawl" directly correlates with this team's hot run, and Winker has been backing it up with his pristine play. The lefty masher has a .317 AVG, .394 OBP, .571 SLG, and .966 OPS over his last 17 games. That makes him about $1,000 too cheap on both sites, and it's strange to see the three-hole hitter for the hottest team sitting in this price range. Facing Glenn Otto is outstanding, too, with the righty amassing a 5.50 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this year. Not to mention, Jesse has a .390 OBP, .523 SLG, and .913 OPS against right-handers since 2020.




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