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Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – 3M Open
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TPC Twin Cities
Par 71 - 7,431 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Three Winners
- 2021 - Cameron Champ(-15)
- 2020 - Michael Thompson(-19)
- 2019 - Matthew Wolff(-21)
Top Tier Targets
We definitely have the "returning from the Open" travel narrative this week but I am not too concerned and will try and target the lowest owned of the group, at least in the top tier. Early indications show Finau and Theegala as the chalk options at the very top and that has me turning to Hideki for leverage. It is a good news/bad news situation and let's start with the latter as he is coming off a T68 at the OPEN and missed cut at the Scottish Open which probably helps drive the lower ownership projection. The good news here is that he is the highest ranking player in the field in terms of OWGR and looking at my short-term model(via FNGC), he ranks 4th in SG: Approach, 1st in Proximity, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Opp Gained, and 10th in Birdie or Better gained and he also has history here with a Top 10 back in 2019. He is my top play in this top tier this week.
I really don't trust the chalk at this event so will again look to take some risks with lower-owned players. Coming into the week, I honestly didn't think Hadwin would fall in this category given he has picked up a Top 10 in both trips to TPC Twin Cities but he missed cut at the John Deere and terrible putting recently seem to be driving that as of now. The missed cut does not concern me at all as Hadwin came into this event with missed cuts both times and last year, came in with MC in three straight and four of his previous five before tallying a T6. Like Hideki, there is a little more risk here due to current form but with projected ownership and course history, I am on board in all formats.
Mid Tier Targets
From two possibly lower-owned plays to one of the chalkier plays of the week with Steele. He comes in 8th in my long-term model(sheet) and 3rd in my short-term model(FNGC) and that is driven heavily by his current form. Steele is playing his best golf of the season and has made seven straight cuts since early March with five finishes of T26 or better including a T9(PGA Champ), T10(the Memorial), and T25(Travelers Champ) in his last three events. The putter is always a big risk but the iron game has been elite as he has gained 18.1 strokes on approach in those last three events and ranks 3rd in ball striking in this field(via the sheet). All things considered, I will have exposure to the Steele chalk in all formats and will pivot in other places.
The Canadian finished T15 here back at the inaugural event in 2019 but his projected high ownership this week is based on his current form. He has not only made the cut in seven straight events while gaining strokes putting in each, he has also finished inside the Top 25 in four straight. That more recent success has been driven by a sharp iron game as he has gained a total of 13.4 strokes on approach in those four events. In this weaker field, I expected his DraftKings price to balloon into the $8K range at least so I will take the mid $7K price tag and roster him in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#368)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
To say Duncan's 2022 season has been a roller coaster ride would be an understatement. He has only made 13 of 23 cuts but has six Top 25 finishes in that time including a T8 at the Barbasol which came a week after a withdrawal at the John Deere Classic. What stands out to me is the iron game as he comes in having gained strokes on approach in five straight and eight of his last nine events. The putter has also been heating up as he has gained 7.5 strokes on the greens in his last four events. He has yet to put it all together here at TPC Twin Cities(MC, T83) but the game is looking good giving him Top 25 upside once again. I will have exposure in all formats.