DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/21/22

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Pitchers

Jon Gray FD - P 9000 DK - SP 8600
Opponent - MIA (Pablo López) Park - MIA
FD - 33.07 DK - 17.06

This game presents us with an interesting choice on the mound and I am probably going the least popular route with Gray. While Lopez is the better pitcher overall, Gray has a lot going for him today and it starts with his form going into the All-Star break as he posted a 2.06 ERA/2.56 xFIP over his last seven starts. The biggest reason I am on Gray here is the matchup as he faces a Marlins' offence that ranked dead last in runs scored, home runs, wOBA, and wRC+ over the final two weeks going into the break. I wouldn't talk anyone off Lopez here or even the idea of pairing them together but for me, Gray is my top play on this slate.

Zach Logue FD - P 7500 DK - 5700
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - OAK
FD - 19.67 DK - 10.12

If you aren't pairing Lopez and Gray or taking a risk with an arm in the Yankees/Astros game, there is really only one other place to end up for SP2 on DraftKings. While the A's dumped pretty much all talent in the offseason it did mean there would be a ton of opportunities for young players in their system. Zach Logue is one of those and while it has been a roller coaster ride, the good news is that he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts including his latest start holding the Astros to just three hits. The matchup also helps as he faces the Tigers who are a bottom-three offence and went into the break losers of eight of their last nine games. He is my top value SP2 on DraftKings to help me get to more bats.

Catcher/First Base

Sean Murphy FD 2500 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 8.59 DK - 6.47

What makes this small slate the most difficult is the fact that the best matchup for bats is also one of the worst offences in baseball. Either way, I am fully on board targeting against Tarik Skubal who really struggled coming into the break posting a 6.86 ERA with seven home runs against(16% HR/FB) in his final eight starts. There will be room to pay up at catcher and that is exactly what I am going to do with Murphy who comes in red-hot with hits in 13 of his last 15 games and hits 3rd/4th in the lineup. Lock and load in all formats.

Yuli Gurriel FD 2300 DK 4100
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 7.9 DK - 6.1

We don't have confirmation on the Yankees starters for this double-header but I am assuming it will be the lefty Montgomery in game one with it being his turn in the rotation. If that is the case, I love the value with Gurriel who looked better going into the break with hits in four straight including two multi-hit efforts but more importantly, has been much better against lefties with a .329 wOBA/117 wRC+(.283/85 vs RH). Gurriel is my top PTS/$ option at first today.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4000 DK 6000
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.21
Aledmys Díaz FD 2200 DK 3700
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 6.62 DK - 5.06

Back to the Astros here at second base and I group these two together as Diaz does have 2B eligibility on FanDuel. Let's start with Altuve who is one of the most expensive players on the slate but is also one of the most consistent as he enters the second half with a .383 wOBA/155 wRC+. He has also provided a ton of upside this season sitting with 17 home runs and a career-high 8.3% barrel rate. For Diaz, he has been a productive utility piece for the Astros and went into the break with hits in eight of 10 games including three home runs. Between the two sites, he is eligible at five different positions and is cheap on both sites. I will have exposure in all formats.

Also Consider: Nick Allen(OAK) as a punt play if he was to leadoff like projected on some sites

Shortstop

Javier Báez FD 2600 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Zach Logue) Park - OAK
FD - 9.14 DK - 7.87

It has been a real struggle for Baez since the big three were traded from the Cubs but he does check enough boxes on this slate to be in consideration as a top p[lay at shortstop. I mentioned Logue as a possible pitcher to target but I can also make a case against him as he has given up multiple home runs in half of his starts. That is where Baez comes in as one thing he continues to do well is hit lefties and comes in with an elite .390 wOBA/160 wRC+/.254 ISO in the split in 2022. The price on DraftKings is a little high for my liking but Baez is easily my top play at shortstop on this slate.

Also Consider: Jeremy Pena(HOU) who comes at higher price but has been hitting second behind Altuve and is a plus hitter in both splits

Third Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 3100 DK 4800
Opponent - HOU (Cristian Javier) Park - HOU
FD - 8.59 DK - 6.66

Both top third basemen in my player pool are in this game and I lean LeMahieu for multiple reasons starting with price as he is cheaper on both sites. Ultimately, both get tougher matchups against above-average pitching but LeMahieu has been much better as of late hitting .354 with an eye-popping .479 OBP in July. The opportunities to score runs are aplenty when you are getting on base at nearly a 50% rate and have Judge, Stanton and Rizzo hitting behind you. All things considered, LeMahieu is my top play at third base today.

Also Consider: Willi Castro(DET) if needing a punt play as he is likely hitting 5th/6th and has much better splits against lefties

Outfield

Ramón Laureano FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 8.78 DK - 6.69
Chad Pinder FD 2200 DK 2000
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 7.21 DK - 5.51

Given the landscape of this early slate, Laureano and Pinder stand out as top PTS/$ plays in the outfield, each checking multiple boxes. Let's start with Laureano who went into the ASB with hits in five of his last six games and despite the lower average still sits with an above-average 115 wRC+ on the season. Similar form for Pinder who entered the break with hits in four straight and five of his last six games. What really stands out here is that both hitters are excellent against left-handed pitching highlighted by Laureano who is hitting .298 in the split with an elite .410 wOBA and 176 wC+ in 2022. It never feels great having so much exposure to one of the worst offences in baseball but given the slate, I am on board in all formats.

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