Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – BMW Championship
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Wilmington Country Club
Par 71 - 7,534 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
The first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs wrapped up on Sunday night with Will Zalatoris beating out Sepp Straka on the third playoff hole. Pretty incredible for Willy Z considering he was closer to the bottom of the leaderboard than the top after a 71 in round one. The win moved him from 12th to 1st in the standings and he and 67 others will now head to the BMW Championship where the field will be cut down to 30 for the final event, the Tour Championship.
The BMW Championship has alternated courses each year for the playoffs and this year will be hosted at Wilmington Country Club. While we don't have course history to go off of this week, it is not hard to tell the players will face a U.S. Open-like challenge in this Par 71 that stretches over 7,500 yards. On top of that, it has tree-lined fairways with strategic bunkers placed in key landing areas on both sides of the fairway, some blind tee shots, and doglegs which can also create some problems as missing the fairway means dealing with around 4-inch bluegrass rough. On approach, the golfers will see very large bentgrass greens that are expected to be firm and fast. Statistically, my top stat is going to be SG: Approach as a whole with some added weight on long-iron proximity.
Now let's jump into the picks.
Thomas made his first start in the USA since a rough stretch overseas where he missed the cut at the Scottish Open and finished T53 at the Open Championship. While the irons were not exactly sharp(+.8 SG: APP), he made up for it scrambling(+4.5 SG: ATG) and was able to come away with his best finish(T13) since the RBC Canadian Openback in June. When breaking down the stats among the top of the field we are splitting hairs for the most part but where JT stands out for me is that he leads all of them in long-iron play(3rd from 175-200 and 8th from 200+) over the course of the season, is 1st in Par 4 Scoring and 1st in Birdie or Better %. I look for the form to keep trending up and he is my favourite golfer in all formats this week.
The top of the field is loaded which should help spread the ownership out a bit but I am still always looking for a couple of leverage plays in GPP formats. This week that player is Viktor Hovland who I feel is around 8th-10th in ownership among the 14 players in the 9K+ range on DraftKings. He opened the playoffs up with a T20 last week and while he wasn't elite in any area, he looked good all-around outside of scrambling which isn't a priority for me this week given the huge greens. What really stands out is the long-term stat trends as he ranks Top 10 in this field in the key proximity ranges(175-200/200+) and is also 3rd in ball striking over the last 24 rounds on courses of 7,400+ yards(via Fantasy National). I will be overweight on Hovland this week.
Wise gained 6.4 strokes ball-striking last week but struggled around and on the green which led to a T31 finish and now comes into this week sitting outside the cutline to make it to the Tour Championship. I am going right back to him this week as he checks a ton of boxes starting with that ball striking highlighted by his long irons as he ranks 11th in Proximity from 200+ yards on the sheet. The other good news is from a putting perspective as he has been much better on bentgrass greens(25th in the field). There is always a ton of risk with Wise but the upside is there and the price only went up a bit with the smaller field and no cut so I will also be overweight on him this week.
FedEx Cup Rank (#55)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Grillo was not sharp with the irons last week(-.9 SG: APP) and a T31 finish puts him behind the ball this week sitting 55th in the FedEx Cup standings. He has some work to do which should put him in 5th gear in terms of aggressiveness which feeds right into his boom or bust style. The good news is that he has shown that big upside recently with two runner-up finishes at the John Deere Classic and 3M Open and he has gained 5+ strokes tee to green in four of his last seven events. On top of that, he ranks 7th in Ball Striking on courses of 7,400+ yards and is 14th on the sheet in Proximity from 200+ yards. All things considered, he is my top value this week.