DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/23/22

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Pitchers

Robbie Ray FD 10600 DK 9900
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 46.18 DK - 25.35

There are some strong pitching options on Tuesday which could make some of the decisions a bit closer. But I think we can pretty confidently run out Ray as one of the top arms. It can be a bit of adventure watching Ray take the mound every five days seeing as how he has double-digit K upside but also struggles, at times, with control. But he’s a -273 home favorite against the lowly Nationals and do think he has as much upside as anyone going on this slate.

Justin Verlander FD 11200 DK 10500
Opponent - MIN (Aaron Sanchez) Park - MIN
FD - 44.07 DK - 24.58

Verlander is the favorite, as of right now, to win the C Young. Some of it is built on luck seeing as how the 3.46 xFIP is about 1.5 runs behind the 1.95 ERA. He’s been helped by BABIP and the LOB% for sure. But he’s still a whopping -370 home favorite against the Twins and he’s exhibited excellent control this season with a 5.5:1 K:BB ratio. The price is really high which is something to take into consideration here.

Strongly consider Max Fried (FD $10200 DK $9400), especially as an SP2 on DK.

Catcher/First Base

MJ Melendez FD 2400 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Zach Davies) Park - ARI
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.52

With the pitching choices ranging on the more expensive side, we are going to have to find some savings with the bats here. Melendez offers one of those opportunities seeing as how he’s slated to hit leadoff for the Royals and is coming pretty cheap on FanDuel. He’s got some power in the bat with 14 home runs and does walk 12.5% of the time. The lower .700s OPS isn’t amazing, but on FanDuel the plate appearance expectation makes up for some of that.

Elehuris Montero FD 2700 DK 2800
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.38

Montero has been starting at 1B for the struggling C.J. Cron and is coming cheap on both sites. The Rockies have the highest implied run line on the day at 5.8 and not all of their guys are priced through the roof. Montero strikes out a lot so far in the majors but he’s slated to hit around 6th in the Colorado lineup and does have power. At these prices, we can live with the downside considering some of the other contexts.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - MIN (Aaron Sanchez) Park - MIN
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.44

Altuve is having another solid season and remains one of the safer cash game bats there is. It’s because he only strikes out around 15% of the time, walks about 11%, has 20 home runs, and has even added 12 stolen bases. It all adds up to a guy who just scores points consistently, something that can’t be said for every batter. And here he’s almost assured to have the ball in play against Aaron who is striking out fewer than six batters per nine this season.

Marcus Semien FD 3300 DK 4900
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.81 DK - 9.68

The Rangers make their way into Coors on Tuesday and though they are facing German Marquez, still have a 5.4 implied run line, the second-highest on the day. He had a very rough start to the season, but has managed 19 home runs and 19 stolen bases even with the OPS still sitting under .700. The fantasy profile (power and speed) plus the park make up for some of his other struggles and hitting leadoff in Coors is always an advantage. Semien is still coming too cheap on FanDuel.

Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3900 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.29

Seager should hit second in the Rangers’ lineup when they go in Coors on Tuesday and the FanDuel price is still pretty playable. He has a .793 OPS on the season and has already tied a career power number with 26 home runs on the season. The BABIP is 70 points lower than his career average so there’s been some bad luck in there, but this is a guy who puts the ball in play about 75% of the time and has the best park to work with.

José Iglesias FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.74

Iglesias’s big positive here is that the Rockies are hitting him in the leadoff spot. He’s making the most of it so far. Despite not really having any power, the guy still has a mid-700s OPS thanks to a contact rate sitting at right around 85%. That’s one of the best in the league and something that plays really well when playing half your games in Coors.

Third Base

Ryan McMahon FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.17

As with most Rockies, McMahon is much better at home where his .833 OPS is about 200 points higher than what he does on the road. He’s got 12 home runs on the season and has even added seven stolen bases. McMahon is much better against righty arms and Dan Dunning could be in real trouble here seeing as how he strikes out fewer than eight batters per nine and struggles with the walks as well.

Alex Bregman FD 4100 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Aaron Sanchez) Park - MIN
FD - 12.43 DK - 9.33M

Bregman is expensive but there’s a lot to like from a fantasy perspective on Tuesday. He walks (12.9%) more than he strikes out (12.4%) and has a top-20 wOBA on the season at .362. The power isn’t going back to the 41 home run season, but his 18 dingers are the best for him in three seasons. I love the approach still and if anything he’s run a little bad on the BABIP.

Outfield

Randal Grichuk FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.35

Sam Hilliard FD 2500 DK 2400
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 10.81 DK - 8.18

It is going to make sense to stack the Rockies where you can and that’s a much easier proposition on FanDuel than DraftKings. Grichuk is having a fine enough season with a .734 OPS and 13 home runs. He’s better against lefties for his career, but the numbers against righties are above average and Dunning is a below average arm. Assuming he hits cleanup in the lineup then I think the FD price is totally fine. It’s a bit closer on DraftKings.

And look, the strongest case for Hilliard is that he’s coming really cheap on DraftKings and should be in the Rockies order. I get it. The other numbers aren’t good at all. But when you have a guy coming near the minimums hitting in Coors against a dead arm, it’s pretty much worth the risk.

Kole Calhoun FD 2800 DK 2000
Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COL
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.54

Calhoun is another one that looks rough from a stats perspective but is also getting to hit in Coors on Tuesday. This is always a weird intersection and makes for some tougher calls. But Calhoun should be hitting sixth or seventh for the Rangers and is coming at the minimum on DraftKings. Seeing as how we are almost definitely spending up for arms, I think we can take the risk.

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