Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 10/26/22
Tuesday's slate was a rough on in terms of late-game news, and it looks like this is the new NBA. Teams will rest players whether they're tanking or not, which can be frustrating for DFS managers.
The most important aspect of DFS is following the news up to first tip. It's essential to follow up after as well because mid-slate adjustments could bank you a massive GPP. Knowing which players will step up in those circumstances is one of the most important things when evaluating these articles, and we'll keep sending value plays your way!
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Why are these DFS sites still sleeping on Jones? This is the new starting point guard in Popovich's system, and he's played at a $7K level in this role. Tre started in 11 games last season, averaging 33.2 DraftKings points per game. That's essentially the guy we've seen this year, posting a 30-point average through the opening week. The simple fact is, this is the primary ball-handler for this underwhelming offense, and he should continue to produce as long as he's playing 30-35 minutes a night. His role should rise even more here in the absence of Devin Vassell, which is awesome since Minnesota is surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
How wild is it that we're recommending Smith Jr this early into the season? That shows how badly Charlotte has been bit by the injury bug, playing without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges. That has forced DSJ into the starting lineup, dropping 37 DK points across 33 minutes in this expanded role on Sunday. He scored at least 31 DK points in all four games he played at least 25 minutes last year, and we know he can produce whenever given the opportunity. New York didn't give him that chance, and you know he'll be motivated in this revenge game. With all that said, DSJ is a tough sell if Rozier ends up returning for this game. If that happens, pivot to Rozier.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $9400 DK - $9500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 47.35 DK - 48.93
I wasn't so sure how the Mitchell experiment would work from a fantasy perspective with Darius Garland, but he's impossible to fade as long as Garland remains out. He's actually one of the league leaders with a 34 percent usage rate, which is scary since DM is flirting with a 40 percent usage rate with DG off the floor. The production has matched the high usage, scoring at least 50 fantasy points in all three games. Mitchell hasn't had many three-game stretches like that in his career, and it's clear Cleveland wants their offense to run through their big acquisition. Facing Orlando is outstanding, too, with the Magic ranked 19th in points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Jordan Clarkson FD - $6200 DK - $6300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.23 DK - 32.81
I was shocked to see Clarkson starting over Collin Sexton, but it's made JC one of the best DFS bargains of the year. The 2021 Sixth Man of the Year is averaging 32 DraftKings points per game in this expanded role. It's easy to understand why, regularly playing 30-35 minutes while taking 15-20 shots a game. He's always produced in much smaller roles in the past, and he will have to do a ton for this rebuilding Utah offense. Getting to face Houston is the best part of this, though, with the Rockets ranked dead-last in defensive efficiency and points allowed last season.
Caris LeVert (FD $5900 DK $6200) should be asked to do more in the absence of Garland as well.
Kelly Oubre Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $6200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.17 DK - 33.67
It horrifies me that we have all of these volatile shooters, but it feels like many of these guys are being put into massive roles. We already discussed how Charlotte is missing Ball, Rozier, and Bridges, forcing Oubre into the starting lineup. The southpaw has been sensational in this expanded role, averaging 32 DK points per game. He's also scored at least 27 fantasy points in all three outings, and we love that he took 20 shots in the most recent game. This shorthanded team needs him to continue that assertiveness, and we've seen Oubre play at a $7K level in the past. His eyes always seem to light up when facing NY, scoring at least 31 DK points in five of their last eight meetings.
Josh Hart FD - $6000 DK - $5800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 34.13 DK - 34.78
I have Hart on almost every season-long fantasy team, and I genuinely don't understand why the fantasy community was sleeping on this dude. This versatile forward stuffs the stat sheet more than anyone in this price range, averaging 11.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.1 steals over the last four years. He actually leads Portland with 10.3 rebounds a night, generating a 31-point average. Good luck finding that from another $6K player, especially one who has shown a 50-point upside in the past. Miami sounds like a tough matchup but the Heat rank 22nd in defensive ratings so far this year. Look for Lillard and Grant to swallow up all of the tough defenders on Miami while Hart feasts on the rest of them.
Gordon Hayward (FD $6500 DK $6500) should be one of the primary playmakers for Charlotte with so many key players missing.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11600 DK - $11200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 62.97 DK - 64.74
Giannis has been a Top-3 player in fantasy throughout most of his career, but he's on another level right now. He's leading the NBA with 61.4 DK points per game, dropping at least 60 fantasy points in both outings. It's no surprise since Milwaukee is playing without Khris Middleton, leaving the former MVP with some of the largest usage of his career. All of that is terrible news for Brooklyn, with the Nets ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. Antetokounmpo has annihilated this team over the last two years, scoring at least 52 DK points in all seven matchups en route to a 64-point average.
Kenyon Martin Jr. FD - $4200 DK - $4500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 23.62 DK - 23.13
This is a risky recommendation, but someone needs to play in Houston's frontcourt. They traded away Christian Wood last year and are now missing Alperen Sengun and Bruno Fernando. That leaves Martin as one of the only big men left, playing 34 minutes against these Jazz on Monday. If you look at the nine games KJ played at least 29 minutes last year, he averaged 29.1 DK points per game. If you get 30 fantasy points from a $4K player, you've stumbled into one of the best values on the slate. Utah used to be one of the toughest matchups in DFS, but this defense is one of the worst in the league since the Rudy Gobert trade.
Lauri Markkanen (FD $7200 DK $6500) averages nearly 20 shots per game as Utah's showman and should keep rolling against the worst defense in the NBA.
Nikola Jokic FD - $11000 DK - $10900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 55.92 DK - 58.22
Something tells me Jokic is going to go nuts here. This guy is the two-time reigning MVP for a reason, and it's bizarre not to see him atop the player pool in terms of pricing. The consistency is what makes him so amazing, scoring at least 39 DraftKings points in all but one game last season. He also led the league with over 60 fantasy points per game for the second straight year, and you know he'll be motivated against the Lakers. Not only does LA play at the second-fastest pace in the league, but they also struggle with opposing centers. That was on full display when Joker averaged 27.5 points, 15 rebounds, 9.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in their two meetings last season.
Kelly Olynyk FD - $5300 DK - $5600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.57 DK - 31.32
I've always been a fan of Olynyk's game, and it's exciting to see him start at center for this rebuilding team. There's simply no depth behind Kelly at the center position, with Oly averaging 34 minutes across the last three games. He's also averaging 35 fantasy points per game in that span, stuffing the stat sheet at ease. This weak roster needs him to perform like that, and we saw Olynyk average 35 DK points per game in the nine games he played at least 22 minutes last year. It's all about opportunity for Olynyk, and he will produce in this sort of monster role. Facing Houston is the icing on the cake, with the Rockets allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers last year.
Jakob Poeltl (FD $6600 DK $6400) just dropped 40 fantasy points against this defense and should be looking at 35-40 minutes to oppose Gobert and KAT.