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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Wildcard Playoffs(Saturday)
Welcome back football fans. Week four in the NFL is here and DFSR has you covered. Earlier in the week, we look at our top cash game picks and now it's time to look at some stacks that help us get to the top of or GPP contests. Let's get started.
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This wildcard matchup between the Chargers and Jaguars is where I will be focusing most of my exposure on Saturday and it starts with a total(47.5) that is almost a touchdown higher than the 49ers/Seahawks. For Herbert, he checks almost every box and it starts with the matchup against the Jags' defence that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in fantasy points against quarterbacks. While Herbert struggled to hit 3x value over his last four games, he did throw multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games. Herbert has the highest floor and ceiling on this small slate and is our top quarterback in all formats.
If you are looking to take the value route, especially on DraftKings, Brock Purdy is the cheapest option on the slate, the biggest favourite, and has played terrific down the stretch. Since taking over for the injured Jimmy G in week 13, Purdy thrown for multiple touchdowns in all five games while averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game. He is surrounded by talented playmakers and can easily be double-stacked and his price also allows us to load up on elite running backs on this slate. I will have a ton of exposure to Purdy in all formats.
All three top running backs on this slate are in play and can be stacked together with the value at other positions. Let's start with Austin Ekeler who led all running backs in targets(7.5) and receptions(6.3) per game while also setting career-highs in rushing yards, targets, and receptions(still would have got there on tar/rec with 17 weeks). While the Jags offence has been above-average against running backs(11th in DVOA vs the rush), the matchup is still a plus one for Ekeler as they allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to the position pushing them to 19th in fantasy points against. I also have no issue stacking Ekeler with Herbert and trying to get access to almost all the Chargers' rushing and passing yards.
On the other side of this game, Travis Etienne is going to be popular considering the large price gap between him and the top two guys. He is coming off a dud in week 18 against the Titans' top-ranked rushing defence but the good news here is that the Chargers rush defence is on the opposite end of the spectrum ranking 29th in DVOA against the rush and 26th in fantasy points to the running back position. This game not only has a high total but is also expected to stay close which should give Etienne 15-20 touches which is an excellent floor considering the price.
Christian McCaffrey FD 9800 DK 8500
Proj Points FD - 27.47 DK - 30.75
While he is the most expensive running back of the three, CMC is most definitely in the best spot in terms of a projected game script as the 49ers sit as 10-point home favourites. McCaffrey has also been an absolute PPR beast since being acquired by the 49ers averaging 20.1 touches, 114.8 scrimmage yards, and 23.9 DK/20.5 FD points per game(this is excluding his first game in week 7 where he played just 22 snaps). He now draws a Seahawks defence that ranks 25th in DVOA against the rush for the season and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to running backs. Fire up CMC in all formats and don't be afraid to stack him with his quarterback.
Keenan Allen FD 8400 DK 7000
Proj Points FD - 14.22 DK - 17.61
The wideout position is fairly straightforward at the top with Metcalf and Lockett facing the #1 overall defence and Allen's teammate Mike Williams has yet to practice through Wednesday this week. Since returning from his own injury back in week 11, Keenan Allen has been a beast for the Chargers averaging 10.4 targets, 84.4 yards and 19.7 DK points per game and ended the season strong with 100-yard games in two of his last three with two touchdowns in the finale against a tough Broncos secondary. Despite being the most expensive wideout, Allen is easy to fit with the top running backs and is easily my top wide receiver on this slate.
Marvin Jones Jr. FD 5500 DK 3400
Proj Points FD - 8.91 DK - 11.04
If you are going the path of stacking the Chargers' big three(Herbert, Allen, Ekeler) and wanting to pair them with McCaffrey, we are going to need some punt plays to make it happen. If Lawrence is healthy and starting, we could consider any of the Jags wideouts or Engram at tight end but in this particular build, it's Marvin Jones for me. He may not possess the 20-point upside of his teammates but he has been consistent for his price lately getting 6+ targets in three of his last four games while averaging 7.8 DK points per game. More importantly, he allows us to stack the best plays on the slate making him a top PTS/$ value for us on Saturday.
Also Consider: Joshua Palmer(LAC) as a top value if Mike Williams sits out. The last time he did, Palmer averaged 19 DK points per game over a three-game stretch as the starter
George Kittle FD 7700 DK 5900
Proj Points FD - 13.08 DK - 15.91
The Seahawks' defence has done a heck of a job shutting down opposing wideouts ranking 3rd in fantasy points against this season which has me licking my chops to stack George Kittle with Brock Purdy this week. It took a couple of games for them to find their rhythm but they have been a deadly combination lately combining for seven touchdowns over the last four games. While the Seahawks have struggled against wideouts, they have let tight ends including Conklin(6 of 6 for 80 yards), Kelce(6 of 8 for 113 yards), and even Kittle(4 of 5 for 93 yards & 2 TD) run wild on them. Overall, they have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends putting Kittle in a class of his own on Saturday's slate.
Colby Parkinson FD 4700 DK 2500
Proj Points FD - 5.86 DK - 7.3
With Will Disly hitting the IR, Colby Parkinson jumped Noah Fant on the depth chart at least in terms of snaps played. Both are in play for me this week at their prices but with Fant dealing with a lingering injury, I will have more exposure to Parkinson. Considering the punt pricing, he has been consistent lately with 36 or more yards in three straight games while returning 3x value in each game. Most of all, liek I mentioned with Marvin Jones, he allows us to stack the top players on the slate comfortably. Lock and load in all formats.